No, it still really isn't. Not going to analyze weeks beyond 10 due to GT4's staggard launch, but week 10 GT4 sold 25% better, and the gap has been growing since. 65% tracking compared to 70% tracking, isn't a big difference, and 9 million lifetime is still likely.

 You are really good with maths.

2/3 = 67%

Just 2 weeks GT5 sold that (and the last one looks like old data... needs adjust).

On average it's scaling 79% as well as GT5 from week 11-15. Thats 12% higher then 2/3rds. The adjustment did help. However the trend is still there, sales do drop dramatically for GT5 after 7/8 weeks.

Still your did prove me wrong. However I think the ratio will fall. Equivalent GT4 sales are in May/June for Americas/EMEAA). July is generally the slowest month of the year for game sales, but the drop from May to July isn't that major. GT5 will be going from March to May sales in that timeframe, sales will drop more as the holiday season is further away, and the spring software support stops. After that GT4 will begin to enter its first holiday season, when GT5 sales are mid-summer.

You did prove it's no longer 2/3, it's 4/5 now. Good Job on looking up all the values. I'll admit I never analyzed weekly sales after the adjustment, and you got me.

I made a prediction before the game was out and alalyzed weekly sales knowing adjustments happen. I'm sticking with it because I think before the adjustment the game was highly unlikely of breahing 10 million sales. However with this adjustment it makes the higher end of my prediction (9.4 million) look significantly more favorable then my low end (8.5 million). Remember, this adjustment is only 7%.

BTW, before I calculated GT5's sales likely to be 9 million, if it continued to match hold a 67% weekly sales ratio with GT4. That ratio is now 79% post holiday season, but it will likely go down due to the shift in release times (summer sales are more stable then spring sales, GT5 will drop, but GT4 will not). Also GT4 has not been sold during a holiday window, so it should shift to GT4's favor by the end of the year.

However, if GT5 can hold exactly 79% weekly sales of GT4. It will just cross 10 million units sold. So it's definatly a lot more possible now then before the adjustment. So I can see why some people are so adament about 10 million post adjustment. I however am not.

Was, not is.

The magical attach rate GT5 needs to hold to sell 10 million units is 78%. This is if GT4 doesn't sell any more units which it will. Say PD sell all 11.2 million shipped copies of GT4, the magical attach rate drops to 69.3%.

After week 10, the average attach rate GT5 held was 79%, and the median was 78%. However, since GT4 sales are in the more stable summer months now, and it's yet to enter it's first holiday season, this ratio will likely drop.

Also if you look at the trend and plot it, the 2 prior weeks stand out like a sore thumb. Remove them, and you get a nice parabolic slope (99, 89, 80, 78, 68, 68). If you plot this, I'm sure you will still see stability around 67%, or 2/3rds.

The attach rate will likely drop, the question is by how much? If it holds a 79% attach rate, GT5 will make 10 million units in 4 years or so. If it drops slightly, or stabilizes at 67% GT5 may not even break 10 million.

I think it will drop, 15 weeks is still early to stabilize, and GT5 has yet to experience dry summer sales.

You think it will hold steady.

So no matter what, this debate won't be solved anytime soon. My 9.4 million prediction is still largely credible. Hard to argue with figures huh?

Yes, but this will be GT5's second holiday season. GT4 has yet to enter it's first one. Don't you see the difference? GT5 sales already got a holiday boost, GT4 has not.

Also GT5 sales are dropping faster then GT4's, it's still only 15 weeks, we dunno what ratio GT5 will stabilize at.

GT5 is hard to predict off early sales because GT4 was released in a very different part of the year, and release dates are staggered. They will have different sales profiles (e.g. GT5 is much more frontloaded due to the holiday launch).