EMEAA up

[Michael-5]

pezus said:

Michael-5 said:

 

Was, not is.

The magical attach rate GT5 needs to hold to sell 10 million units is 78%. This is if GT4 doesn't sell any more units which it will. Say PD sell all 11.2 million shipped copies of GT4, the magical attach rate drops to 69.3%.

After week 10, the average attach rate GT5 held was 79%, and the median was 78%. However, since GT4 sales are in the more stable summer months now, and it's yet to enter it's first holiday season, this ratio will likely drop.

Also if you look at the trend and plot it, the 2 prior weeks stand out like a sore thumb. Remove them, and you get a nice parabolic slope (99, 89, 80, 78, 68, 68). If you plot this, I'm sure you will still see stability around 67%, or 2/3rds.

The attach rate will likely drop, the question is by how much? If it holds a 79% attach rate, GT5 will make 10 million units in 4 years or so. If it drops slightly, or stabilizes at 67% GT5 may not even break 10 million.

I think it will drop, 15 weeks is still early to stabilize, and GT5 has yet to experience dry summer sales.

You think it will hold steady.

So no matter what, this debate won't be solved anytime soon. My 9.4 million prediction is still largely credible. Hard to argue with figures huh?

Maybe it will drop in the summer and then go back up when GT5 enters the 2011 holiday season.

Yes, but this will be GT5's second holiday season. GT4 has yet to enter it's first one. Don't you see the difference? GT5 sales already got a holiday boost, GT4 has not.

Also GT5 sales are dropping faster then GT4's, it's still only 15 weeks, we dunno what ratio GT5 will stabilize at.

GT5 is hard to predict off early sales because GT4 was released in a very different part of the year, and release dates are staggered. They will have different sales profiles (e.g. GT5 is much more frontloaded due to the holiday launch).