EMEAA up

[Michael-5]

CGI-Quality said:

ethomaz said:

Michael-5 said:
No, it still really isn't. Not going to analyze weeks beyond 10 due to GT4's staggard launch, but week 10 GT4 sold 25% better, and the gap has been growing since. 65% tracking compared to 70% tracking, isn't a big difference, and 9 million lifetime is still likely.

 You are really good with maths.

#	GT5	GT4
1	2344932	2523055	93%
2	744116	1000378	74%
3	675112	510176	132%
4	624977	326608	191%
5	585254	231662	253%
6	312094	178044	175%
7	171438	137261	125%
8	120100	120989	99%
9	91157	102768	89%
10	73757	92089	80%
11	63025	80643	78%
12	52727	77354	68%
13	61928	67939	91%
14	55184	60955	91%
15	37402	55236	68%

During the holiday months, GT5 is ahead by a good margin. Even if it were to even out or sell just a tad less than GT4 (I'm thinking at most, it will sell 500k less), it would still clear 10 million at that rate. Hard to argue with figures!

Was, not is.

The magical attach rate GT5 needs to hold to sell 10 million units is 78%. This is if GT4 doesn't sell any more units which it will. Say PD sell all 11.2 million shipped copies of GT4, the magical attach rate drops to 69.3%.

After week 10, the average attach rate GT5 held was 79%, and the median was 78%. However, since GT4 sales are in the more stable summer months now, and it's yet to enter it's first holiday season, this ratio will likely drop.

Also if you look at the trend and plot it, the 2 prior weeks stand out like a sore thumb. Remove them, and you get a nice parabolic slope (99, 89, 80, 78, 68, 68). If you plot this, I'm sure you will still see stability around 67%, or 2/3rds.

The attach rate will likely drop, the question is by how much? If it holds a 79% attach rate, GT5 will make 10 million units in 4 years or so. If it drops slightly, or stabilizes at 67% GT5 may not even break 10 million.

I think it will drop, 15 weeks is still early to stabilize, and GT5 has yet to experience dry summer sales.

You think it will hold steady.

So no matter what, this debate won't be solved anytime soon. My 9.4 million prediction is still largely credible. Hard to argue with figures huh?