How much longer can Nintendo continue to lead both the Home and Handheld markets?

Nintendo has always been #1 in the Handheld market Gen in and Gen out with the Gameboy, and Gameboy Advance though its is fair to say that Nintendo had no competition. During the Gen that just past they did have someone to compete against...Sony with their PSP. Nintendo's DS easily outsold the PSP and currently has a 79 Million lead. 

However, Nintendo's #1 status in the Home System market hasn't been as consistant. Nintendo was #1 with their 1st 2 Systems the NES & SNES then...Sony came along. Nintendo released the N64 as their next system after the SNES only to fail in sales next to the new PlayStation. The PS outsold the N64 by about 70 Million and the N64 couldn't compete. After N64 Nintendo tried a small little box called the GameCube. This time Nintendo didn't only compete with Sony they also had to compete with Microsoft.(Sega dropped out though) It was Gamecube against the PS2 and the new XBox. Gamecube...wasn't the most successful coming in last with only 21 Million sold. Now we currently have the Wii VS PlayStation 3 VS XBox 360. With many years into this Gen the current #'s stand at 48 Million(PS3), 52 Million(360), and 85 Million(Wii). With this Gen not over yet anything could happen as Wii is currently #3 in the weekly #'s but with such a lead most people can agree that it will win when this Gen is over. 

Now, the question is...how long will Nintendo stay #1? As of now the Next Gen Handhelds are getting ready to go Worldwide with the 3DS and NGP. 3DS is currently out in Japan and opened with 374K with a WW release in March 2011. NGP isn't due until Late 2011/Early 2012 so 3DS will get an early start but as we have seen with the DreamCast and XBox 360...an Early start doesn't = an automatic win. 

Also, what about Next Gen for the Home Systems? We haven't seen anything yet so its harder to predict but try anyway LOL.

IMO the 3DS will outsell the NGP. While I think that the NGP has more potential than the PSP had...I feel that NGP will have a similar fate to the PSP...it will sell well but now compared to the competition(3DS) 3DS offers something new to gaming to get the Casual's attention and has the best 3rd Party support I have ever seen with a Nintendo System to get the "Core" as well. I have a feeling that the Handheld Gen after the 3DS/NGP one Nintendo won't win though.

I also predict that Nintendo won't win Next Gen for Home systmes with Microsoft's turn to lead. I know a lot of you will say...how do you know? Well, I don't have a clue as we haven't seen the systems yet but thats the fun in predicting!

The iPhone/iPad will win the handheld war.

iThingy > 3DS > NGP

The next Xbox will win the console war, mainly due to huge penetration in the American market, it will be close WW with the PS4 but come out on top.

Xbox 3 > PlayStation 4 > Super Wii

I don't think MS has a chance to ever win any console war as long as Japan and Europe exist. Americans are not as loyal as you think, they go back and forth. 

Wii2- PS4- XBOX720

Well, Nintendo was losing the race until their little home run thing called a "Wii" popped up, and just redefined the definition of "console." The chances of them pulling another 'revolutionary and creative' thing like that is low, but they probably have people working day and night to find another genre of untapped potential to break into.

That's all it boils down to; untapped potential. The 3DS has a chance over the NGP, because of glassesless 3D, which is untapped of course, but is it potential? By reading the reviews online, people are saying the 3D is purely a gimmick, and that just increases the chances of the NGP taking it down. Sony has to get EVERYTHING right, and it will dethrone Nintendo from the handheld market. They need to get Pricing right. Games right. Developers right. Advertisements right. Consumer Demand right. All sorts of things right, but the ever-so-looming threat of failure is peeking itself out of the 3DS, and Sony just needs to exploit that.

Again, the only reason Nintendo won this gen is because they hit a sweet spot with consumers. They hit the moms, the 9 year olds, the majority of people who don't hardcore game like the Ps3 and 360 owners. They also got the pricing less than both the HD Consoles, and that was a major win for them as well. They also got in while there was a civil war between 'core gamers' between the 360 and Ps3. Sort of like if Britain had reconquered the U.S. during their civil war. Unless they find something else revolutionary, or they pump out amazing First-Party games, they won't be competing with the HD consoles, especially since HD has never been Nintendo's strong suit.

EDIT: And as for the next console war in general; it can go either way. It all has to do with marketing and timing and advertisements and such. Here is my biggest worry: I am a Sony fan. I love them, even though their division is as stupid as a sack of bricks compared to Apple and Microsoft. Sony claims that the Ps3 will be lasting until possibly 2015. MS claims that too, but the 360 is looking more and more outdated with each passing moment. IF MS pulls another 360 launch and launches the 720 2-3 years before the Ps4, what would consumers do? Will they follow MS and buy the 720? Or will they realize "aw crap, another console. I'll get a Ps3 instead"? Sony caters to the hardcore gamers a bit *too* much, and, as great as they are, they aren't thinking about profit too much. By trying to make the Ps3 lifecycle longer than the 360 lifecyle, will that have bad repercussions, or good ones?

The 720 will be more powerful than the Ps3, no doubt, and that's another factor that will sway consumers to and fro the Ps3 vs the 720. But then again, Sony can do a pricedrop on the Ps3 and beat the 720s price, if they pull their strings right. Honestly, I'm thinking Ps3 will win lifetime sales, but it'll take only after the 720's launch to do that. And everything from there is pure grey area, because we have no idea what the hell the companies are going to do after that. "$599 U.S. Dollars." I don't think anyone expected that.

Meh, the Wii is only so far ahead this time because of Nintendo's penetration of the casual market. Next gen, they wont be the only company going for that market. Right now, Microsoft are doing a great job with them and I expect that to continue. I also expect the Xbox name to be established in Europe by that time too!

Add in the fact that 3rd parties hate Nintendo (3DS doesn't count), and you have both Sony and Microsoft above the Wii2.

MS is doing great in that market compared to which games on the Wii?

what Kinect game is going to come close to the Wii games?

Even with Sony doing everything in the world to destroy any chance the PS3 has to do well, it's still very close to the xbox being more than a year behind. 

One region won't win you consoles when both Nintendo and Sony are brand name there too. Ms needs to expand like Sony did to new  markets as well. 

A freaking HD  Wii with with Mario, damn, I'd buy it. 

I'm basing it off the fact that Kinect Adventures will be a 20 Million seller, and the 360 is outselling the Wii on a weekly basis.

The only way for nintendo to lose 1st place is if it sony or microsoft ditch their standard controllers and use motion controls AND make games that utilize better than nintendo. That's the only way I can think of unless they go the blue ocean route and make something new. I expect all of the big 3 to decline next gen. 

nintendo already lost the lead ...  they went from 70% of the weekly marketshare to less than a third.  wii is still relevant but it ain't leading...

Android currently has the most install base on mobile phones and games are getting better and better and with Tegra 2 on the scene now and the friendliness of the way google checkout works, it's going to be pretty big soon if you ask me. Naturally, you will also see Playstation Suite on Android 2.3 devices, making it even more valid. 3DS will most likely keep dominating the portabl gaming only market for now though. As far as home consoles go, unable to predict until Nintendo comes out with new hardware.