Well, Nintendo was losing the race until their little home run thing called a "Wii" popped up, and just redefined the definition of "console." The chances of them pulling another 'revolutionary and creative' thing like that is low, but they probably have people working day and night to find another genre of untapped potential to break into.
That's all it boils down to; untapped potential. The 3DS has a chance over the NGP, because of glassesless 3D, which is untapped of course, but is it potential? By reading the reviews online, people are saying the 3D is purely a gimmick, and that just increases the chances of the NGP taking it down. Sony has to get EVERYTHING right, and it will dethrone Nintendo from the handheld market. They need to get Pricing right. Games right. Developers right. Advertisements right. Consumer Demand right. All sorts of things right, but the ever-so-looming threat of failure is peeking itself out of the 3DS, and Sony just needs to exploit that.
Again, the only reason Nintendo won this gen is because they hit a sweet spot with consumers. They hit the moms, the 9 year olds, the majority of people who don't hardcore game like the Ps3 and 360 owners. They also got the pricing less than both the HD Consoles, and that was a major win for them as well. They also got in while there was a civil war between 'core gamers' between the 360 and Ps3. Sort of like if Britain had reconquered the U.S. during their civil war. Unless they find something else revolutionary, or they pump out amazing First-Party games, they won't be competing with the HD consoles, especially since HD has never been Nintendo's strong suit.
EDIT: And as for the next console war in general; it can go either way. It all has to do with marketing and timing and advertisements and such. Here is my biggest worry: I am a Sony fan. I love them, even though their division is as stupid as a sack of bricks compared to Apple and Microsoft. Sony claims that the Ps3 will be lasting until possibly 2015. MS claims that too, but the 360 is looking more and more outdated with each passing moment. IF MS pulls another 360 launch and launches the 720 2-3 years before the Ps4, what would consumers do? Will they follow MS and buy the 720? Or will they realize "aw crap, another console. I'll get a Ps3 instead"? Sony caters to the hardcore gamers a bit *too* much, and, as great as they are, they aren't thinking about profit too much. By trying to make the Ps3 lifecycle longer than the 360 lifecyle, will that have bad repercussions, or good ones?
The 720 will be more powerful than the Ps3, no doubt, and that's another factor that will sway consumers to and fro the Ps3 vs the 720. But then again, Sony can do a pricedrop on the Ps3 and beat the 720s price, if they pull their strings right. Honestly, I'm thinking Ps3 will win lifetime sales, but it'll take only after the 720's launch to do that. And everything from there is pure grey area, because we have no idea what the hell the companies are going to do after that. "$599 U.S. Dollars." I don't think anyone expected that.
"Being single is easier on the gaming life, and the wallet."
