I'm expecting this to happen, mainly cause of price more then anything. The PS2 still sells reasonable figures lol,.

it's quite possible that the ds will outsell 3ds in 2011 but only if the 3ds will be supply constrained all the year long!

I agree that you could be right about your thread's main point (DS>3DS in 2011)... maybe.  Especially if DS sees a price drop.

But this statement?  The uber hype of PS3 05, that I'll give you.  But how do you explain the mega hype of the Wii at E3 06 or Wii Fit at E3 07.  Or even Kinect for that matter.  Not exactly a pattern for failure...

Well, I don't think the software lineup, battery life, or price point, are going to be the main hurdles for the 3DS to outsell it's predeccesor(which  actually makes me laugh my ass off since the thought hadn't crossed my mind).  I think it's going to be the ability for gamers to see the relevancy of 3D in the gaming medium.

And that will have most to do with marketing.  You can market 3d, just not the traditional way.  It can't be a top-down approach where a commercial or ad shows you how cool 3d is...because tvs and 2d banners can't do that.  It's going to have to be bottom-up, which can be the absolute best marketing in this case, or the worst.  Nintendo fans are going to be open to buying the device and so their will be an initial consumer base.  When people who are unsure of buying the device want to consider the purchase, the marketing will come face to face from their friends who already own it.  It HAS to be that way, it's the only way they'll make that mental decision that 3d has relevancy in the gaming medium.  Friends and family telling you or showing you something is good is way more psychologically convincing than a businessman telling you the same thing (in this case the "business man" can't even show you).

The downside I think is that if 3d truly does not enhance the gameplay mechanics (not doubting it will please the eyes) then consumers are going to know that right away from the bottom-top approach when they see it doesn't work in person.  They will then have 100% proof, to them, that the purchase isn't necessary.  Traditional marketing through ads still actually leaves the consumer in the air about the actual functionality of said product, which although most think that is bad for sales, now you can see why it may be a good thing.

I personally am in the same position as everyone else, despite having seen the ads and hype reels.  Does 3d make a difference?

It won't. DS is already at abysmal levels and software such as Pokemon BW will help 3DS sales more than DS.

Unfortunately, that says more about Wii (and PSP) sales than it does about DS... You could look at it another way and say that it's selling less than the HD consoles.

3DS will outsell DS with ease this year, just wait and watch, there's so much doom and gloom lately for 3DS, this thing will sell big numbers.

There are a lot of factors at play here ...

The DS will (probably) have a massive second half of the year as Nintendo reduces its price to make it a more compelling option. I don't know how much of a price reduction we will see, but if it is signficiant enough the DS could sell more this year than last year.

At the same time we really don't know how popular the 3DS is, or how much hardware Nintendo will be able to supply. Even if the 3DS is popular enough to sell 20 to 25 million systems in 9 months, will Nintendo be able to supply enough hardware to meet that demand?

#1 factor will be how fast Nintendo can print those 3DS.

But the constant doom and gloom for the Wii eventually paid off...