Exactly.  2.5 is more than two.  Also, it's not just like they can say in January "We're going to double production today to 3.6 million/month"  that takes time.  So this is not only unlikely, and hasn't happened before, it's also impossible :(

 Ah, but I wasn't arguing whether Ninty can increase to 3.6 million a month production, just whether they can sell that much and judging by the PS2 and DS rises in their second year (both selling more than twice what they sold in their first year) its within the realm of reality, now they won't be able to make that much likely but if they could they would probably sell them all by the end of next year

 You can't say it is highly unlikely that the Wii demand won't rise like the PS2 and DS demand did, because the Wii is something completely different.  We already know you can't use historical analysis to help explain what is going to happen to the Wii, because it is completely different.  This is the argument used by the Wii faithful most of the time too, so don't pull the fanboy rabbit out of the hat please.  Not saying that it won't, just that there is no way you can say it is highly unlikely wii's demand will not double too!!! 

The jury is still out on whether the wii can keep demand up in its second year.  Let's wait and see before trying to present your anecdotal evidence as perceived fact.

Yea i too think that wii can easily sell 3 million per month except on holidays, which can range easily at 5 million. However, I am quite surprized that nintendo has sold more then its 1.8 million cap for this month. So far they have sold a total of 2044831 wii's worldwide this december according to vgchartz with alot of shortages. I am quite curious if nintendo would sell another million before the end of the year.

 Fair enough, I can wait a year, and when Wii supply is still less than demand, and there are still shortages, maybe all the claims of the Wii being a fad will be dead (I won't hold my breath through, i'm certain that people will still make that claim)

Unfounded predicitons are lame. Unless you can show a clear connection between whats happening in the present and what you are prediciting shut the hell up.

Just read this entire thread which has taken me about 20 mins! All very interesting...

4 points to make re 3.6m sales per month:-

1) As a neutral i have to say..respect to Avinash for his persistently calm and logical responses in this Wii debate. There's nothing he has said that i cannot agree with to be honest. On the back of the Wii's 1st year success, the world is Nintendo's oyster and you can't put a ceiling on something that is selling so strongly so early in its lifecycle.

2) Who would have believed that one year since launch this console is STILL selling out. This is unprecedented in all media formats. By this i mean any single mobile phone, mp3 player, videogame console etc cannot claim to have the same high level of desirability after 1 year in the market place.

3) The Wii is a global phenomena that has yet to receive a "Nintendogs"  or "Brain Training"-type killer app (bar Wii Sports) that really nails the motion control benefits of the Wii. Once they do, it will no doubt result in a further gear shift in sales. The point i am making is Nintendo are managing to sell out without much quality software for its NEW console. Wii Fit will soon be at our shores and may well become Nintendo's biggest hit to date. Men and women in their 30s/40s will flock to this game, being the most prone to weight gain/health concerns (i am 34 and gagging to get this game to get rid of my ghastly Homer-style beer-belly!). Exercise DVDs and gyms? Boring or embarrassing for the majority of us. But interactive Keep-fit in my front room, in the form of Wii Fit, that i can do on my own and will tell me if my fitness is improving???! Now that's innovative and will draw millions to the Wii, in my opinion.

4) If Nintendo take the decision to back the Wii properly (increase supply), then signs are pointing towards even higher sales than 2007 levels. We will not know if the 3.6m claim is true until Nintendo have upped their supply capacity to meet it.

Avinash,

You've been around long enough to know that you can't compare Wii first year to PS2 first year properly since the PS2 launched in Japan first:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=Japan&weeks=156

By the slopes of the graphs you can tell that the Wii is selling at approximately the same rate as the PS2 in its first year once the rest of the world kicked in. True, the Wii was supply constrained whereas the PS2 wasn't. But you can't say the Wii will double because the PS2 doubled, because the PS2 DIDN'T! Look at the slopes, they are the same.

This is an interesting graph showing how the Wii is currently doing in Japan:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=Wii&reg3=Japan&weeks=156

Yes that's true that PS2 launched earlier in Japan than in other regions, but that is by and large irrelevant since in every region Wii is leading over PS2 sales over the same time period, which shows that Wii demand and production is higher (Since Wii was able to enter the markets much faster and sell in all three at a higher rate)

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=------&weeks=58 

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS2&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=------&weeks=58

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=X360&reg3=------&weeks=58

So while its true that PS2's doubling was more due to adding more regions than anything, but even taking PS2 out of the equation we still see the rise in DS sales which does by and large double as well in its second year

With Wii Fit release in US and Europe, and some clever advertising in lifestyle magazines, i'm sure wii would sell 3 millions/month production trough whole 2008 (if there would be leftovers trough the year, it would be easily sold in the holiday time).

But i think 3,6 mil/month is pushing it a bit too much. Maybe in 2009 if it generates an even bigger momentum + most of 3rd parties start assigning AAA teams to work on wii games.