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Forums - Sales - Lifespan of the Wii?

robjoh on 13 April 2007
Shane said:

I think N64 range is a pretty fair estimate for Microsoft as well. They just haven't been aggressive enough with this headstart and really haven't caught on too well anywhere but the US. Sony's the only company with a shot of approaching PS1/2 levels, but even they will most likely be down this generation.

I don't see Nintendo rushing out another console, whether they need to or not. They'll be more than happy to let Microsoft have another headstart. Nintendo will be pushed by Sony, not Microsoft.

As much talk as there is of casual gamers, Sony's traditionally been the company to appeal to them. I'm not convinced the casual gamer impact has been much at all for Nintendo. It just doesn't make any logical sense for casual gamers to be buying systems this early in a system's life. For every soccer mom, you've got 10 fanboys looking for the next Mario. Not to say they won't necessarily be able to appeal to a broader group eventually, but how many people who are just borderline interested are going to go through the trouble of getting something unless it's in stock?

Wii sales have peaked. Will Wii ever have a December as big as the last one in Europe or Japan again? Will Wii ever have a Q1 globally as big as this last one? That's not necessarily a bad thing, as it launched very well, but being realistic, it did step on its best foot first.

Are predictions made entirely on the basis of the first few months of sales of a new system even worth commenting on?

 

Some points I want to make:

  1. How can sony be the only company that have a shot at 100 million, when Nintendo already have proved that they can win the non-gamers with DS? Not only that Nintendos brand might be stronger than it have been since NES.
  2. How will Sony win the casual crowd with a 600 USD consol? When they entry point for casual gamers seems to be closer to 200 USD?
  3. The only market were Wii Play and Sport isn't included in the package is Japan, both those games has sold more than one million copies, Zelda has passed 400k. If that isn't tapping the casual/non-gamer market that DS created I don't know what to say.
  4. Why do you think Wii sales have peaked? It is still sold out!
  5. Yes it is worth to look at few month predictions, simple because those few months (4) has shown steady sales for Wii (sold out), decilining sales for PS3 (far from sold out). On that we have more 3rd parties betting on Wii than before.

 



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

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StarcraftManiac on 13 April 2007

outch, robjoh just dissed shane...



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Kwaad on 13 April 2007

Sony has the cheapest console by 120$.



PSN ID: Kwaad


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vanguardian1 on 13 April 2007

Really? What other consoles are $720?



Nobody is crazy enough to accuse me of being sane.

LordTheNightKnight on 13 April 2007
Kwaad said:
Sony has the cheapest console by 120$.

 Liar. If it was the other way around, you'd claim last gen doesn't count. And the GC is still less. And don't pretend it isn't still on store shelves. It is, and it is selling.



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johnsobas on 13 April 2007
LordTheNightKnight said:
Kwaad said:
Sony has the cheapest console by 120$.

 Liar. If it was the other way around, you'd claim last gen doesn't count. And the GC is still less. And don't pretend it isn't still on store shelves. It is, and it is selling.


well GC did sell more software last month in US than PS3 did. 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

robjoh on 13 April 2007
Kwaad said:
Sony has the cheapest console by 120$.

 

If that was an answer to me, than you might reread the statment I did answer to:

Shane stated that Sony was the only company that could reach Ps1/2 level of succes.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

Shane on 13 April 2007

Any claims here have no hard proof. Wii having peaked isn't about whether it's a fad or not. 6.5 million units in 4.5 months. And it's going to exceed that going forward? With what? 10 million? 20 million? Infinity? Infinity plus 2? The per capita GDP in China is $7600. But anyway, a) even if only 1% of the people can buy a system, that's still 13 million units, and b) it's not like it will stay the same price forever (people seem to be caught up on the price as if it will never go down). Nintendo already has a 100 million selling system. The problem is that system never helped its console efforts. Nintendo needs to work on establishing itself as a console player, and there are some definite hurdles to that with both the game buying public and also developers. In the first few months, we saw the Dreamcast and N64 blast right out of the gates, while we saw PS1 go so slow N64 practically eclipsed the year headstart. At the end of the day, the launch didn't matter, and this launch won't remove the December effect. The only thing early sales may have influenced so far is a willingness to go multiplatform and include more on 360, but minus the earlier launch that would be moot.



jjseth on 13 April 2007
StarcraftManiac said:

 Almost NO single adult or 'non-gamer' cares about HD-tv's/Blu-ray/HD-graphics/Real time physics...


 I'm a single adult and I care about HD-TV's and all of that.  It's the techno-geek in me that loves being on the bleeding edge.   I don't have a PS3 yet, but I will sometime this year.  Also my TV rarely goes off the HD channels and I love the clarity of the pictures, so I can see Blu-Ray being something I would like to have.



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

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HappySqurriel on 13 April 2007
Shane said:
Any claims here have no hard proof. Wii having peaked isn't about whether it's a fad or not. 6.5 million units in 4.5 months. And it's going to exceed that going forward? With what? 10 million? 20 million? Infinity? Infinity plus 2? The per capita GDP in China is $7600. But anyway, a) even if only 1% of the people can buy a system, that's still 13 million units, and b) it's not like it will stay the same price forever (people seem to be caught up on the price as if it will never go down). Nintendo already has a 100 million selling system. The problem is that system never helped its console efforts. Nintendo needs to work on establishing itself as a console player, and there are some definite hurdles to that with both the game buying public and also developers. In the first few months, we saw the Dreamcast and N64 blast right out of the gates, while we saw PS1 go so slow N64 practically eclipsed the year headstart. At the end of the day, the launch didn't matter, and this launch won't remove the December effect. The only thing early sales may have influenced so far is a willingness to go multiplatform and include more on 360, but minus the earlier launch that would be moot.

I don't know whether the Wii has peaked or not but I can say that it 1.5 Million units per month is not that extreme of sales for any system; certainly most systems do not get to that level but in every generation there is usually one console who passes this level for quite a while.

Anyways, I (generally speaking) agree with you that India and China are massive untapped markets I would still say that you're overestimating. At 2.5 Billion people there probably is only about1 Billion households, of which only about 1% can spend about $500 on a gaming console (10 Million) and only 25-50% of those people would be actually interested in a gaming system for a grand total of 2.5 Million to 5 Million potential PS3 sales. I would also say that there is about 10 times as many people who could afford a $100 system. 

Now, as for your N64 and Dreamcast comments I just want to say that the N64 and Dreamcast took off well in North America. Neither system was particularly popular in Japan or Europe and their poor sales in these regions eventually impacted sales in North America. By the end of 2007 it is likely that the Wii will have sold more units in Japan and Europe than the N64, Dreamcast or Gamecube ever did.