I had all 3 consoles (4 if you include DC) last gen.  This gen?  One.  I can't be the only one that, because of the much higher entry prices and tougher economics, that was forced to be a single platform owner this gen that was multi last gen.  

Not sure how measurable that speculation was ...

The first thing they teach you in consumer behavior class is to never project yourself onto the consumer base. 

2011 sales will be lower than 2010 I think.

Also, on another subject, it would be fun to get this data on Japan.

Someone should extrapolate a chart from those 360 numbers!

If long term trends will join smoothly with mid term ones, it looks like both 360 and PS3 could achieve a good longevity, although with higher yearly and lifetime sales for 360 in USA.

It would, and I don't see it happening

I see (for 360)

2011: 5.4mil-6.2mil (if price cut)

2012: 3mil-3.8mil

2013:1mil (new consoles released mid-2012)

2013 and beyond: 1mil

Certainly not slacking, but no 7 year peak

To contrast, Wii sales:

2011: 5.5mil-7mil (if price cut)

2012: 2.8mil-3.5mil

2013: 1.5mil (mew consoles released mid 2012, but lower price of Wii maintains sales akin to the PS2)

2014 and beyond:: 1.2mil

So I expect it top be very close throughout the next few years between Wii and 360, but the Wii will just keep ahead due to holiday rises. As for PS3, that's an unknown quantity, but I expect another 10mil LT in America, I just don't see the gen lasting til 2015, let alone with a Wii2 on the market in 18 months and the 720 in 24 months...

OT: Nice thread, don't like the ordering though, very confusing :/

I feel there are two important factors at work here.

1. The main console in a game players life is fluid. In the last generation the main console remained the PS2 for the entire time and the previous generation before that the main console became the PS1. In this generation mainstream multiconsole ownership is more likely given the fact that all three consoles provide a distinct enough experience that it is justifiable to own more than one. It is also possible to start with a Wii and then buy an Xbox 360 with Kinect or start with an Xbox 360 and later on also purchase a Wii or PS3.

2. Not only has the console market expanded but the presence of a console as a standard part of AV equipment has become a lot more mainstream. Noone thinks twice if they see a PS3/360/Wii sitting amongst your stereo equipment, cable box etc. This is due to both the mainstreaming effect of the Wiimote and later Move and Kinect as well as the fact that both the Xbox 360 and PS3 are relevant as multimedia devices as well as games machines.

Overall I don't think the total number of game buyers will increase over the coming years so in terms of software I think we are probably at or past that peak even as new consoles are sold. Also the reason why the 360 has increased every year is that it had to convince people it was a legitimate alternative to the competing Playstation 3. Contrary to popular belief second place in the U.S. was never in the bag for the Xbox 360 from the start, it was earnt and continues to be earnt every year that the Xbox 360 manages to increase its' sales.

Thank you for saying that.  I've actually considered starting a thread here for people to chime in as to why they bought a 360, but I passed because of how I figured it would turn out.

There are some outside of the US that really think the 360 being owned by a US company really matters in the purchasing of it by those in the US.  The Playstation name in the US was synonymous with video games for probably 6-7 years.  The Playstation sold the most in the Americas.  The PS2 outsold the Xbox by OVER THIRTY EIGHT MILLION.  I personally know people that waited for the PS3 instead of getting a 360 because they were loyal to the Playstation brand.  On top of all of that, look at how the Wii (a Japanese console) has outsold the 360 despite coming out a year later.

The 360's performance in the US WAS earned by better appealing to what the gamers want (as learned from the Playstation) and some strategic and marketing decisions that helped to overcome the image problems (exacerbated by the hardware troubles).  If anything, European and Japanese gamers have proved to be more brand motivated than those in the US with console purchases this gen.