Note Year 1 is a partial year in many cases (Nov-Dec 2006 for Wii, Oct-Dec 2000 for PS2, etc etc).

Avg sales for year 1-5: 18.89m

LTD Sales for AVG System, which sells 18.89m in 5 Years: 28.72m (partially based on estimates for Wii / X360 / PS3 over the next few years). Wii is 80% of this pace  in years 1-5 - suggesting 51.8m lifetime in the USA. PS2 was 41% ahead of this pace, suggesting 40.5m, but rebounded in year six to a higher figure than year five, and reached 46m lifetime. 

Above AVG: Wii, PS2

Within 10% of AVG (17m - 20.8m):  X360, SNES, PS1, NES

Below AVG (0-17m): N64, GC, PS3, Gen

With X360 sales in for 2010, we also have a more complete picture for year six (I have estimates for Wii / PS3 included as well).

AVG Sales for Years 1-6 (estimated to include Wii / PS3) : 22.55m (with LTD of 28.72m)

Below AVG (under 20.3m by end of year six): PS3, N64, GC, Xbox, Gen

AVG Consoles (within 10% of 22.55m) / 20.3m - 24.8m: SNES, PS1

Above AVG (over 24.8m by end of year six): Wii, X360, PS2, NES

Through year six, X360 is at 25.41m, 13% above the pace of the avg system which will sell 28.72m lifetime. Thus X360 at a bare minimum will get to 32m - and with Kinect sustaining it at least in 2011, 40m - 44m is probably the most likely outcome. My projections call for Wii at 40.59m through 2011, or 80% above avg the years 1-6 pace, as it was with years 1-5, putting at around 52m lifetime in the USA. For PS3, I have 19.44m for years 1-6 (projected), about 14% below the average console in that period, which would put PS3 around 25m lifetime. However, that pace is probably best seen as a bare minimum as PS3 was 18% below the avg console in years 1-5 (23.55m pace, not 25m pace), so 28m or so may be more realistic.

As a final caveat,PS2 & Xbox & GC combined to hit 71m or so in the USA (75m with DC), USA population was 280m in 2004, at the dawn of the current generation.

Currently Wii & X360 & PS3 are at 75m. In 2011, population is about 310m - and so right now console penetration growth is still within population growth. But we hit a satuation point soon too -and so everything could drop off quicker than expected. Really depends on the numbers of new gamers in the USA. From this point forward, I can see three possible trajectories for current machines in the USA:

                                                            Worst                      Likely                     Best

2011 Wii / X360 / PS3 Sales          12m                         16m                       20m

2012 Wii / X360 / PS3 Sales           9m                           14m                       18m

2013 Wii / X360 / PS3 Sales           7m                           9m                          13m  

2014 Wii / X360 / PS3 Sales            3m                          5m                           8m

2015 Wii / X360 / PS3 Sales            1.5m                      3m                           5.5m

2016 Wii / X360 / PS3 Sales            0.5m                       1.2m                     2.5m

2017 Wii / X360 / PS3 Sales            0m                           0.5m                     1.1m

2018 Wii / X360 / PS3 Sales                                              0m                          0m

Lifetime Wii / X360 / PS3                108m                    123.7m                    143.1m

Wii / X360 / PS3               (48m / 35m / 25m)    ( 52.7m / 43m / 28m)    (60m / 50m / 33m)

Worst Case: Kinect cannibalizes Wii in 2011-2012, but doesn't push many X360s. PS3 never drops below $200. Wii / X360 / PS3 discontinued quickly after new consoles. Price drops to $100-$200 for Wii / X360 are ineffective since they took so long to happen.

Likely Case: Kinect essentially allows X360 to do 2009 numbers in 2012, after a peak in 2010-2011. As first system to $150 / $100, Wii has a long tail, and remains well ahead of the PS2 pace even with only shovelware support after 2012. Smaller PS3 price cuts and USA preference for Wii / Kinect lead to steady declines after 2011, but PS3 still reaches fairly big figures. Nomimal console growth is 50m - with 30m people owning more than one console, and say 20m more users than last generation (roughly 33% user growth)

Best Case: $100 price cuts in 2011 for all three systems lead to a surprising big year - with Wii and X360 over 7m and PS3 over 5m. Third parties finally get "motion controls" in 2011 onward - and drive  adoption of Move / Wii / Kinect even as first parties prepare new innovations. Explosive new genres include things like Kung Fu, Sex-simulators, co-operative hunting, head tracking, in your home laser-tag like simulations via augmented camera reality, and so on. The innovation just keeps on going through the end of 2012 before new machines begin getting heavy investment.

i'm sorry... but why this order in the tables? t's not alphabetical not historical, hard to compare ^^

(now on to reading)

nice analysis, but just one thing.

Do you not account for a higher multiplatform ownership this gen than last? This would boost the "gaming population" and unlike other gens with many ports, this gen, the wii and the HD consoles have a very distinct offering.

(I say this but I myself had 3 consoles of last gen and only 2 of this gen... and i switched from US to EU so i'm totally off that trend :p)

I mention mutli-ownership at the bottom

"Nomimal console growth is 50m - with 30m people owning more than one console, and say 20m more users than last generation (roughly 33% user growth)"

i'm blind sorry :-p

The other way to estimate USA totals is by comparing PS2 & Xbox & GC to Wii & X360 and PS3

                  PS2 / Xbox / GC             Wii / X360/ PS3

2000                  1.1m                                0.6m                    2005

2001                 8.8m                                 5.7m                    2006

2002                 13.8m                             13.5m                    2007 (PS2 / Xbox price cuts in 2002, PS3 / X360 cuts in 2007)

2003                 12.7m                             18.4m                    2008 (X360 price cut)

2004                 11.0m                              18.7m                   2009 (Wii / PS3 price cut in 2009)

2005                 9.4m                                18.2m                   2010 (Kinect. Would have been 16m w/ a normal X360 year)

2006                 5.9m                                16.5m?                 2011

2007                 4.1m                                13.6m?                 2012

2008                 2.5m                                 9m?                      2013

Overall it doesn't look like the real crash is coming until after year 8 (2012) for current systems - it was more like after year 5 last generation. I'm calling the "crash" fewer than 10m current systems in a year.

Wow X360 in U.S

Year 6 > Year 5 > Year 4 > Year 3 > Year 2 > Year 1

I wonder if Kinect could help 360 soar above this years sales. I think it can match the holiday just gone this year, but June/September is when it's going to falter due to no slim boost.

Anyway, if 2011 does match 2010 for 360 then it'll come very close to PS2 lifetime sales

2011: 7 mill (32.5 million)
2012: 4.5 mill (37 million)
2013: 3 mill (40 million)
2014 & beyond 2.5 mill (42.5 million)

That said I see a $99 360 selling a lot on its twilight years.

Edit - 7 year peak would be lol

There doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between years and decline in sales. 

Seece I don't know that X360 will be bigger in 2011 than 2010 without a price cut. Jan-Feb should be down on stock, Nov figures will be tough to match, as will June and Sept.

Wii had new genres explode pretty much every year from 2006-2010 to keep pushing it - I'm not sure Kinect will see much more than fitness / dancing games in 2011. Any game made more fun by over 2 players playing or by holding something in hand may not be as big on Kinect as on Wii. Over some 12 month period, maybe June 2010 to May 2011, X360 probably will do 7m or more in the USA, but I don't think it will for Jan-Dec 2011.

I agree it won't do as well if it doesn't get a price cut, but it seems rather silly to assume it won't get one, I can't see MS going a 3rd xmas without cutting the baseline price. It all depends on if 360 HW AND Kinect get a price cut though, that would ensure it has an xmas on par with last year. Kinect demand is pretty high atm, so as long as they can sort out stock issues by late feb, YoY increase from now to June can offset June - September.

It's difficult to imagin any new genre exploding, if we could forsee that we'd be millionairs. I bet noone though Wii fit would do what it has. Kinect may seem more handicapped, but it's different, and could create something completely original neither of us could predict. That and it's still going to be a fresh product all year and next xmas, more of the same stuff Wii gamers have bought over the years will help it sell, not for as long as it has the Wii, but for 2011 at the least.
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