binary solo said:
badgenome said:
binary solo said:
Nothing like a tragedy to give a politician an opportunity to look statesmanly. Not saying that Obama used Giffords' shooting for cynical political purposes, what he did was totally appropriate and right, and I'm sure Obama was sincere about what he said. But there's no doubt in my mind that Obama and his circle of advisors and speechwriters knew this was an opportunity to make up some lost ground with the electorate.
The good he's done himself personally from this will be short lived though. People will get back to their own personal and social problems soon, and unless they see positive action and movement in the right direction things will slide back again.
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The rebound began before the shooting, and polls in the immediate aftermath show little to no change from before. This is probably more attributable to voter anger dissipating in the wake of the elections and Obama giving his base something to cheer for with the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell.
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Interesting. The immediate aftermath polls possibly didn't include his speech? I would expect a statisically significant bounce after that speech. But yes, the things he (Congress) managed to achieve after the election have done more for him than pretty much everything he did in the past 2 years.
These next 2 years could either be a poisoned chalice for the Republicans, or it could be the final nail in the Obama presidency coffin. The Republicans have the harder strategic road I think. The way the Republicans came out swinging after the election with all this aggressive talk of obstructing Obama at every turn looked like they might end up handing Obama another 4 years in office. If the Republicans fight Obama tooth and nail then Obama could make it look like a sore winner House, and an obstructionist Senate minority. If the Republicans end up working with Obama to get things done, then Obama looks like a president who can work well with Congress.
The Republicans need to essentially close down the presidency without coming off looking like the bad guys. Trouble is they need to convince the Senate to pass House Bills/measures for the president to get a look at them and given the Senate is still majority Democratic the Bills that get to Obama for signing aren't going to be so right wing that Obama will be vetoing all over the place. More than likely Obama will work with the moderates in Senate to water down hard right stuff coming out of the House into centre right stuff, which the president can sign without suffering too much damage with his base support. The fight will really be on when it comes to passing funding measures for things like the new Food Safety law. Starving the administration of funds is a possibly winning tactic for the Republicans, though it also comes with its electoral risks. With the Food safety law every foodborne illness outbreak that happens while the Republicans are blocking funding will weaken their position. And Foodborne illness outbreaks happen commonly enough that the obstructionist position could really blow up.
The game, as they say, is afoot.
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There were polls taken right after the speech, but they didn't show a significant improvement. It was a good speech, probably the best I've ever seen from him, but it just didn't really change anyone's opinion.
I'd disagree on a couple of things:
First, the Republicans had historic wins in November despite all the screaming that they were obstructionist bastards. As P.J. O'Rourke put it, the public wanted a restraining order against the Democrats. Now that we have a split Congress, the Republicans will have to assume more responsibility for governing, but it's going to take all of Obama and the media's messaging power to successfully brand Republicans as running the show with a Democratic Senate and a Democratic White House.
Starving the administration of funds is going to be a tricky bit of business, though. For example, Republicans should aim for outright repeal of Obamacare. They won't get it, of course, but it will help keep voters on their side and it gives them an issue against Democrats in competitive districts in 2012 by putting them on record. After that fails, I really don't think they should try to tamper with it too much. The thing is absolute poison in my opinion, and has to be completely replaced. Changing things in a bill that no one has read and no one can explain or comprehend doesn't fix the problem at all, but defunding it only allows Obama to say, "Ah ha! All these problems are because the Republicans didn't allow us to implement the good things!"
On the other hand, if Obama decides to override Congress (the old Democratic Congress, that is) and bring Gitmo detainees to the U.S., and Republicans block the funds somehow... that will go just swimmingly. People are totally opposed to that shit, and it would be a replay of the Justice Department insisting on trying Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in NYC. That would be the complete opposite of what Obama wants right now. He's trying to triangulate and hover above the fray, but this would pit him against both parties and the majority of the public, and just make him look completely out of step.
So, yeah, the Republicans do have an uphill battle dethroning Obama in 2012, but I think it's going to be less about how the one Republican chamber of Congress behaves (although they can help or hurt) and more about finding a strong candidate. The one guy who would almost certainly cream Obama is Chris Christie, but he flat out refuses to run. Sucks for me; I would kill to see those debates. The rest of the likely candidates are a big, fat "meh" at this point.