Yeah it does need a cut to stop from falling behind the competition, it's the question or whether they'll do it or not. This gen Sony has made several mistakes that have put me off the PS3, even though I liked the original Playstation and was somewhat positive towards PlayStation 2, although preferred Xbox at the time x). I don't know even $50 cut seems optimistic at this stage, although somewhat likely, in comparison with the $100, all comes down to how much Software makes up for possible loss on hardware. Interesting year, I think 360 and Wii cuts are given though.

U think MS are that stupid? Because it would alianate the hardcore even more if they were forced to get Kinect.

The hardcore already have their 360s, Microsoft's going for the mass market now.  It's really in their best interest to get as many Kinects out there as possible, and the perceived value of the package (4GB & Kinect for $199, XXXGB & Kinect for $299) makes the thing almost irresistible from a casual vantage point.  I think if MS did that, they'd outsell Wii for 2011 in the US, even if Nintendo went to $149 with their current SKUs.

It's going to be a push between marketshare and profitability for Sony, I agree.    The other effect is that maybe a PS3 drop drives up the PSP2 asking price ($299? $329? $349?)... either way I think Sony's in tough spot.  Their software lineup is also very much "more of the same", which should please the base, but do little to move them past that.

I really don't see MS or Nintendo dropping prices though, value adding will get them a lot farther and at less cost/risk overall.  Nintendo's the more likely of the two, and even then I can only see a minor fall/holiday reduction (say to $179).

I think the Wii could have a really good 2011 if Dragon Quest X drops in Japan.

Wii will go down YOY.

360 will go up slightly YOY if the price keeps the same, if not, then we'll see a big jump.

PS3 will go up slightly YOY if the price keeps the same, if not, then we'll see a big jump.

pretty much, this year is 360vPS3.

i can see something like....360 15-16M, PS3 16-17M, Wii, 19? 18? probably it'll be on top again.

MS will have the year the PS3 had in 2010, up early, but down late as the 360 played so many cards in 2010.The PS3 will need to cut price to keep up, it's crazy that the cheapest PS3 is still $299 after 5 years. Anyways, the Wii needs the core games, as much as the Just Dance and casual games sells, 2008 was special because of the amazing games released that year. 

360 = 13-14 million

PS3=  12- 13 million

Wii= 18- 19 million ( Holidays always save their year)

if the wii drops to 99$ I think it will be its biggest year ever. That is really the price where you could consider a console cheap. Heck I have almost 0 interest in the wii but if the price dropped to 99$ i would be willing to buy it for the three games I want for it. If its a $50 pricecut or no pricecut at all I think wii will be down a couple mil.

360 will be up this year in my opinion. By next holidays microsoft could have a kinect/360 bundle for $200 and if they do and the wii isn't 99$ I think its holidays will be only slightly behind the wii. A great lineup of multiplatform games will help Americas sales throughout the year but EMEAA will likely be down since good multiplatforms help the more popular system in the region.

I think PS3 will start selling the most consoles weekly in a few months but will have mediocre holiday sales compared to 360 and wii and I think it will remain flat since I don'tsee a 100$ pricecut happening anytime soon.

I think it'll be  closer this year between the consoles, I'm thinking along the lines of:

Wii: 18 Million.

Xbox 360: 16 Million.

Playstation 3: 16 Million.

But of course this could be way off like many other predictions that I've made. We'll get a better picture of what to expect when we get Nintendo's and Sony's forecasts for the next financial year in April this year. With respect to Microsoft, I expect them to aim for the Wii and try and beat it in North America this year at the very least with the Xbox 360. Thats my take on the year ahead so far...

I mostly agree...  But as far as Wii goes, Nintendo could drop the price a hundred bucks and still make money.  The only real problem for them is that their machine is on the "bored with it" list.  Most of the masses that are buying it now are the same people who are the last to have anything that is new.  They probably won't buy many games and will regret their purchase within a year when they find out they should have bought the 360 or PS3 from their more into it friends.  I, like many people here have all 3 consoles.  The reality is that the Wii only gets played on an odd occasion and I have 4 kids.  If it didn't have some console exclusives,I doubt it would get turned on.  Either way, the Wii will still outsell the PS3 and maybe/probably the 360.  Time will tell, but it could be the year o fthe  Kinect - Maybe!