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Forums - Sales - How close will the big 3 be in 2011?

Seece on 07 January 2011
Immortal said:


What leads you to believe that? Wiis were produced at $88 (I've posted this link somewhere before, I think - http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20090407124321_Nintendo_Wii_Costs_Roughly_88_to_Manufacture__Analysts.html#) back in mid 2009. Surely you'd think that Wii's even lower now and, considering 360 cost over 300 bucks to manufacture at launch, I doubt it's that low by now.

Anyway, on topic, I don't expect it to be as close as this year. I expect Japan to abandon 360 and Americas to start letting go off PS3 in the same way as Japan's let go of 360. Sony will probably try to step up their game, which may also leave 360 in the dust in EMEAA. Wii should continue to decline at about the same pace and 360 may be closer to it, but PS3 I think will start falling behind next year.

Like Japan matters to 360 0_o it did 220k there this year, so any drops there will be irrelevent.



 

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pitzy272 on 07 January 2011

I think if Kinect wasn't in the picture, PS3 would have continued to catch up to 360 in terms of hardware, maybe at an even faster rate than ever considering Sony's absolutely incredible exclusives line-up for 2011 (and 360's seemingly lacking exclusives line-up other than GeOW3). But...with Kinect in the picture, all bets are off, especially in the Americas. 360 just sold almost 400,000 units in the Americas the week AFTER Christmas. I know 360 normally sells better than ps3 in the Americas, but not like this from what I've seen. Kinect is really driving sales, and I don't think it will slow down anytime soon.

In my own opinion, Kinect really has a limit as to what it can do considering it uses no controller and thus no buttons; but, I don't think the casual crowd sees it this way or even cares.

I think Wii will probably decline by 1-2 million this year - in part bc I think new people to gaming who would have bought a Wii in prior years will now choose the Kinect instead.



MightyGrogg on 07 January 2011

My predicition for 2011 is:

PS3 - 14.9

XBox 360 - 15.2

Wii - 20.5

As long as Microsoft brings the games and markets Kinect like they did this year, it's going to sell like crazy during the holidays again. Microsoft needs to get some quality titles out the door this Spring and Summer though,



Immortal on 07 January 2011
nightsurge said:
Immortal said:


What leads you to believe that? Wiis were produced at $88 (I've posted this link somewhere before, I think - http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20090407124321_Nintendo_Wii_Costs_Roughly_88_to_Manufacture__Analysts.html#) back in mid 2009. Surely you'd think that Wii's even lower now and, considering 360 cost over 300 bucks to manufacture at launch, I doubt it's that low by now.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=119878

Your point being? Your analysis shows that a 360 costs $105-135 to make and Kinect costs $56 to make. The Wii, according to my source, cost $88 to make back in July 2009. Nintendo can go lower than MS - and that's not accounting for any manufacturing costs they cut in the past year and a half. They're probably right above Kinect costs by now. A $80 Kinect and a $150 360 (or even a $199 K360) couldn't combat a $99 (heck, prolly lower) Wii.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

Mordred11 on 07 January 2011

With the huge game-line up for 2011,and a possible price-cut,I expect the PS3 to be the most up YoY system.

360 can easily beat it to it though,if Kinect support keeps coming in as it has been until now,and a possible price-cut.

The Wii...well,it will probably have a price-cut as well,but I really don't expect it to be up YoY,even with that.

It will be very close...as close as ever as rolstoppable has said.



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Chibi.V.29 on 07 January 2011
Immortal said:
nightsurge said:

Good topic, Kowenicki!

My view of the situation is about what you have said.  I feel the Wii will be down again (following the more traditional 5 year life cycle with sales declining now YoY).  The 360, IMO, has the best shot at being UP by a good margin again next year.  If Kinect keeps generating hype and word of mouth driving sales, this year could be big.  Microsoft still has room to slash $100 off of consoles and still break even or profit slightly, as well as cut prices on Kinect.  They have a lot of cards to play this year and I feel they have the best options over the other two.

Don't get me wrong, I think all 3 will have price cuts this year, but the 360 will have the most impact and be able to drop the most out of the 3 (While remaining profitable that is. Obviously Sony or Nintendo could slash prices deeper and take hits on hardware if they wanted).

Sony could also be UP slightly this year following good Move support and a price cut to Move and the system.  The Wii I do not see anything that could stabilize it's sales, it's on the way out while the 360 and PS3 have added new options to keep their systems going.


What leads you to believe that? Wiis were produced at $88 (I've posted this link somewhere before, I think - http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20090407124321_Nintendo_Wii_Costs_Roughly_88_to_Manufacture__Analysts.html#) back in mid 2009. Surely you'd think that Wii's even lower now and, considering 360 cost over 300 bucks to manufacture at launch, I doubt it's that low by now.

Anyway, on topic, I don't expect it to be as close as this year. I expect Japan to abandon 360 and Americas to start letting go off PS3 in the same way as Japan's let go of 360. Sony will probably try to step up their game, which may also leave 360 in the dust in EMEAA. Wii should continue to decline at about the same pace and 360 may be closer to it, but PS3 I think will start falling behind next year.


The PS3 cost $800 at launch per unit to manufacture :D just thought id throw that in there ^^ (Hell yh for sony biting the bullet for us! lololol)



Yeah i know my spelling sucks but im dysgraphic so live with it :3    

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Slimebeast on 07 January 2011

Wii 15 million
PS3 14 million
X360 13 million

Wii will drop to $149
PS3 will cost $249
X360 will cost $179 and $249 (149/199 Euro in Europe)



Immortal on 07 January 2011
Seece said:
Immortal said:


What leads you to believe that? Wiis were produced at $88 (I've posted this link somewhere before, I think - http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20090407124321_Nintendo_Wii_Costs_Roughly_88_to_Manufacture__Analysts.html#) back in mid 2009. Surely you'd think that Wii's even lower now and, considering 360 cost over 300 bucks to manufacture at launch, I doubt it's that low by now.

Anyway, on topic, I don't expect it to be as close as this year. I expect Japan to abandon 360 and Americas to start letting go off PS3 in the same way as Japan's let go of 360. Sony will probably try to step up their game, which may also leave 360 in the dust in EMEAA. Wii should continue to decline at about the same pace and 360 may be closer to it, but PS3 I think will start falling behind next year.

Like Japan matters to 360 0_o it did 220k there this year, so any drops there will be irrelevent.

Well, every little helps, xD.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

Immortal on 07 January 2011
Chibi.V.29 said:


The PS3 cost $800 at launch per unit to manufacture :D just thought id throw that in there ^^ (Hell yh for sony biting the bullet for us! lololol)

They just did that so that they could popularize Bluray. Gaming was like a sacrificial lamb.

Just kidding, :P. I'm impressed by Sony though. They've cut down a lot since launch, even if it's easier to do it when the price is higher.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

Mordred11 on 07 January 2011
Immortal said:
nightsurge said:
Immortal said:


What leads you to believe that? Wiis were produced at $88 (I've posted this link somewhere before, I think - http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20090407124321_Nintendo_Wii_Costs_Roughly_88_to_Manufacture__Analysts.html#) back in mid 2009. Surely you'd think that Wii's even lower now and, considering 360 cost over 300 bucks to manufacture at launch, I doubt it's that low by now.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=119878

Your point being? Your analysis shows that a 360 costs $105-135 to make and Kinect costs $56 to make. The Wii, according to my source, cost $88 to make back in July 2009. Nintendo can go lower than MS - and that's not accounting for any manufacturing costs they cut in the past year and a half. They're probably right above Kinect costs by now. A $80 Kinect and a $150 360 (or even a $199 K360) couldn't combat a $99 (heck, prolly lower) Wii.

So now it must cost like,50$?Damn,that's even less than a game.

And Kinect won't see a price-cut this year,it's making way too much money at it's current price.