I think if Kinect wasn't in the picture, PS3 would have continued to catch up to 360 in terms of hardware, maybe at an even faster rate than ever considering Sony's absolutely incredible exclusives line-up for 2011 (and 360's seemingly lacking exclusives line-up other than GeOW3). But...with Kinect in the picture, all bets are off, especially in the Americas. 360 just sold almost 400,000 units in the Americas the week AFTER Christmas. I know 360 normally sells better than ps3 in the Americas, but not like this from what I've seen. Kinect is really driving sales, and I don't think it will slow down anytime soon.
In my own opinion, Kinect really has a limit as to what it can do considering it uses no controller and thus no buttons; but, I don't think the casual crowd sees it this way or even cares.
I think Wii will probably decline by 1-2 million this year - in part bc I think new people to gaming who would have bought a Wii in prior years will now choose the Kinect instead.
