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Forums - Sales Discussion - What will sell more Gran Turismo 5 or Mario Kart wii.

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 December 2007
Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Peter Potamus said:
Sorry, but GT5 will sell 4 million more lifetime than Mario Kart. I'm willing to bet on this one too.

 

 


Doubtful, PS3 doesn't even have the install base to do that


 Of course not, given that another PS3 will never be sold...Unlikely...


 even if PS3's continue to be sold, it will not have the install base to sell 4 million more than MK, due to attach rates being so low for GT games



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Avinash_Tyagi on 14 December 2007
Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Peter Potamus said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Peter Potamus said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Peter Potamus said:
So everyone is saying that Mario Kart will sell almost as much as Grand Theft Auto? Because Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto numbers are close. You have got to be kidding me.

Gran turismo 4 sold 8.79 million on a console with about 100 million+ owners, Double dash sold about 6.6 million on a console with 22 million, MKDS sold 8.28 on a console with less than 60 million units sold, the attach rates on the ninty consoles are much higher than that on the sony consoles


You can't apply that to GT5. Like i've said before, GT sells more when it makes its debut on a next gen console. Check the attach rates of GT3 to the PS2 when it came out and you'll see my point.


PS2 had 4 million at GT 3's launch, PS3 willl barely have two, not to mention PS2 was the console leader in the japanese marketplace, PS3 is a weak second


Look at all regions, not just Japan. And this game sells more in the US and Eu separately than Japan.


Sure but Japan is a big chunk, not to mention PS3's install base is very different than PS2's, PS2 was the causual console, PS3 is not, even in NA and others I don't expect GT 5 to do what GT3 did


 Excuse me, I'd just like to point out that inother threads, you've told me (many times over) that the PS and PS2 were/are in fact NOT casual. You are very inconsistent.


Casuals as in terms of nongamer casuals or casuals in terms of casual gamers, in that thread we were arguing over the nongamer casuals, those who are into things like Wii fit and Brain training, this is casual gamers, the people who are into things like Madden

 

There is a distinction, although the terms used are confusing i'll admit 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

DMeisterJ on 14 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
jjseth said:
The reason why you'll see higher attach rates on the PS3 for GT5 is because early adapters are generally hardcore gamers, and many of those enjoy great driving/racing simulators. So it will get off to a great start, friends will see how great the game looks and with the addition of online racing, it should propel GT5 sales to a new level. Will it beat GT3 as far as sales go? Probably not, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it fairly close.

This is easily the top driving simulator/racing series of all time. They have never had a truly poor selling WW game. If 8.79 million sold by GT4 is considered a failure, i'm sure that Nintendo and MS would love to have "failures" like that. MK Wii will jump out to a quick lead, but it won't last as long as GT5 will as far as high sales go.

If this comes out in October 2008, (or later) I don't see how PS3 install base would be less then 16-20 million. And GT5 will sell systems, there really is no denying that. How many, is another question all together (talking about hardware).


 I doubt PS3 will sell 10 million+ in 10 months, 14 million tops, and that is stretching it


You don't think that the PS3 can sell six million units in ten months?

(That number came from the fact that the PS3 WILL have at least 8 mil [(May be close to 8.25) at the rate it's selling now] at the end of the year.  The install base could be sixteen million in october.  that is eight million in ten months ~ 800k/month worldwide.  That doesn't seem that hard to me.)

When the GT5 for PS3 launches, I can definetly see it having at least sixteen and as much as 20 mil, especially on the heels of releases such as, MGS4, KZ2, LBP, DMC4, GTAIV.  If they don't help the PS3 sell at least eight monts, I don't know what will.



Erik Aston on 14 December 2007

Both will sell between 7-11 million.

Attach rate is an overrated statistic. High hardware sales come from a high volume of games, and so higher selling consoles have lower attach rates for their best-sellers. Past sales are a far better indicator of future sales than are past attach rates. We have to assume that no regular retail game will have an attach rate above about 40%, but can leave the attach rate analysis at that.

I don't care to make a prediction simply because it feels to me like PS3 still doesn't have an identity, and furthermore I'm not sure which groups buy Gran Turismo. It could sell 6 million or 10 million, and it wouldn't surprise me. Less than 8 million would surprise me for Mario Kart.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Mummelmann on 14 December 2007

Why would a nongamer casual play games at all? Convenient how there's suddenly two types of casuals now, there wasn't back then.
So either I have the poorest observational skills on Vgchartz, or you've made some weird arguments earlier.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 14 December 2007
Mummelmann said:
Why would a nongamer casual play games at all? Convenient hwo there's suddenly two types of casuals now, there wasn't back then.
So either I have the poorest observational skills on Vgchartz, or you've made some weird arguments earlier.

 Hence the reason why I said that the PS2 and PS1 never reached those people in previous generations, they didn't play games before this gen, with the Wii and DS  (note all the stories about senior citizens playing the Wii)

 

I don't see how you didn't get that but ok 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 December 2007
DMeisterJ said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
jjseth said:
The reason why you'll see higher attach rates on the PS3 for GT5 is because early adapters are generally hardcore gamers, and many of those enjoy great driving/racing simulators. So it will get off to a great start, friends will see how great the game looks and with the addition of online racing, it should propel GT5 sales to a new level. Will it beat GT3 as far as sales go? Probably not, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it fairly close.

This is easily the top driving simulator/racing series of all time. They have never had a truly poor selling WW game. If 8.79 million sold by GT4 is considered a failure, i'm sure that Nintendo and MS would love to have "failures" like that. MK Wii will jump out to a quick lead, but it won't last as long as GT5 will as far as high sales go.

If this comes out in October 2008, (or later) I don't see how PS3 install base would be less then 16-20 million. And GT5 will sell systems, there really is no denying that. How many, is another question all together (talking about hardware).


 I doubt PS3 will sell 10 million+ in 10 months, 14 million tops, and that is stretching it


You don't think that the PS3 can sell six million units in ten months?

(That number came from the fact that the PS3 WILL have at least 8 mil [(May be close to 8.25) at the rate it's selling now] at the end of the year.  The install base could be sixteen million in october.  that is eight million in ten months ~ 800k/month worldwide.  That doesn't seem that hard to me.)

When the GT5 for PS3 launches, I can definetly see it having at least sixteen and as much as 20 mil, especially on the heels of releases such as, MGS4, KZ2, LBP, DMC4, GTAIV.  If they don't help the PS3 sell at least eight monts, I don't know what will.


 No, the PS3 hasn't sold 800K in most months WW



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

damkira on 14 December 2007
Peter Potamus said:
damkira said:
Peter Potamus said:
Let me ask all of you a question, of the 14 million + Wii owners, how many do you think owned a GC?

Now to use attach ratios from a GC game when you know that the Wii's current install base is entirely different makes no sense.

A great deal of Wii owners are long-time Nintendo fans, plus Nintendo has expanded upon their base by marketing the Wii as a multi-player/party game system. Mario Kart and Smash Brothers have consistently been Nintendo's most-reknowned party games, and with the expansion of the fan base, will both see a huge increase in sales from their last iterations. I don't see why you don't think this will happen.

Yes, Gran Turismo 5 will sell well, but it won't beat either MK or GT4. Sony has pulled out pretty much all the stops for the PS3 and its still not selling well compared to the Wii. While it is true that sales from Motorstorm have greatly increased from pack-ins, no PS3 games (except Resistance) have shown sustained sales for a long period of time.


All I said was to think that using attach rates of GC games when the Wii has a very different install base makes no sense. I never said the games to sell well, but to assume that these games will have better legs than a Grand Theft Auto and a Gran Turismo is doubtful. If a Mario Party game hit after a Mario Kart or a SSBB, do you think that they both would sell well, or will the consumer pick up a Mario Party game and completely ignore a MK or SSBB?


 It remains to be seen.. I don't believe the game sales comparison section on this website is completely working yet but I think you will notice that PS3 games tend to drop very quickly after they debut. True, GT5 will outsell any of the currently released ps3 games but the pattern here is pretty clear.

 Mario Party 8 is a perfect example of many Wii games showing excellent legs. Would it still sell well if it were released alongside MK or SSBB? I think so.  In fact, if you look at last week's chart for Others, MP8 is selling nearly the same as Super Mario Galaxy, despite SMG only being out for a month and arguably a much better game. This further illustrates several of my points.



Mummelmann on 14 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummelmann said:
Why would a nongamer casual play games at all? Convenient hwo there's suddenly two types of casuals now, there wasn't back then.
So either I have the poorest observational skills on Vgchartz, or you've made some weird arguments earlier.

Hence the reason why I said that the PS2 and PS1 never reached those people in previous generations, they didn't play games before this gen, with the Wii and DS (note all the stories about senior citizens playing the Wii)

 

I don't see how you didn't get that but ok


How the heck do you know that these people didn't play games before? Do you go into their home and check every console generation? The fact is; the PS2 was known as the most casual console of all time because of it's tremendous breadth in games. Especially when it hit Eastern Europe at a low price point.

So I'm slow for not understanding that when you say that an older console is not casual, it actually IS casual, but not until a new gen of hardware comes along for senior citizens to embrace? There was no mention of this prior to this particular thread. You told me I had a flawed sense of logic before, maybe that's because mine is constant and doesn't skip back and forth in time...



DMeisterJ on 14 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
DMeisterJ said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
jjseth said:
The reason why you'll see higher attach rates on the PS3 for GT5 is because early adapters are generally hardcore gamers, and many of those enjoy great driving/racing simulators. So it will get off to a great start, friends will see how great the game looks and with the addition of online racing, it should propel GT5 sales to a new level. Will it beat GT3 as far as sales go? Probably not, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it fairly close.

This is easily the top driving simulator/racing series of all time. They have never had a truly poor selling WW game. If 8.79 million sold by GT4 is considered a failure, i'm sure that Nintendo and MS would love to have "failures" like that. MK Wii will jump out to a quick lead, but it won't last as long as GT5 will as far as high sales go.

If this comes out in October 2008, (or later) I don't see how PS3 install base would be less then 16-20 million. And GT5 will sell systems, there really is no denying that. How many, is another question all together (talking about hardware).


 I doubt PS3 will sell 10 million+ in 10 months, 14 million tops, and that is stretching it


You don't think that the PS3 can sell six million units in ten months?

(That number came from the fact that the PS3 WILL have at least 8 mil [(May be close to 8.25) at the rate it's selling now] at the end of the year.  The install base could be sixteen million in october.  that is eight million in ten months ~ 800k/month worldwide.  That doesn't seem that hard to me.)

When the GT5 for PS3 launches, I can definetly see it having at least sixteen and as much as 20 mil, especially on the heels of releases such as, MGS4, KZ2, LBP, DMC4, GTAIV.  If they don't help the PS3 sell at least eight months, I don't know what will.


 No, the PS3 hasn't sold 800K in most months WW


Well, I know it hasn't sold that WW in the past couple of months, since it was six hundred dollars.  I mean now, with the $399 price point, and all the games  I mentioned coming out, you really couldn't see the PS3 pushing eight million units in ten months next year?