A great deal of Wii owners are long-time Nintendo fans, plus Nintendo has expanded upon their base by marketing the Wii as a multi-player/party game system. Mario Kart and Smash Brothers have consistently been Nintendo's most-reknowned party games, and with the expansion of the fan base, will both see a huge increase in sales from their last iterations. I don't see why you don't think this will happen. 

 Yes, Gran Turismo 5 will sell well, but it won't beat either MK or GT4. Sony has pulled out pretty much all the stops for the PS3 and its still not selling well compared to the Wii. While it is true that sales from Motorstorm have greatly increased from pack-ins, no PS3 games  (except Resistance) have shown sustained sales for a long period of time.

 Wrong, N64 wasn't going to catch up anyways, did you see its sales trend it topped out at 1 millionand then stagnated, those games never propelled PS1 to victory it had already won long before the N64 even launched

All I said was to think that using attach rates of GC games when the Wii has a very different install base makes no sense. I never said the games to sell well, but to assume that these games will have better legs than a Grand Theft Auto and a Gran Turismo is doubtful. If a Mario Party game hit after a Mario Kart or a SSBB, do you think that they both would sell well, or will the consumer pick up a Mario Party game and completely ignore a MK or SSBB?

The reason why you'll see higher attach rates on the PS3 for GT5 is because early adapters are generally hardcore gamers, and many of those enjoy great driving/racing simulators. So it will get off to a great start, friends will see how great the game looks and with the addition of online racing, it should propel GT5 sales to a new level. Will it beat GT3 as far as sales go? Probably not, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it fairly close.

This is easily the top driving simulator/racing series of all time. They have never had a truly poor selling WW game. If 8.79 million sold by GT4 is considered a failure, i'm sure that Nintendo and MS would love to have "failures" like that. MK Wii will jump out to a quick lead, but it won't last as long as GT5 will as far as high sales go.

If this comes out in October 2008, (or later) I don't see how PS3 install base would be less then 16-20 million. And GT5 will sell systems, there really is no denying that. How many, is another question all together (talking about hardware).

 I doubt PS3 will sell 10 million+ in 10 months, 14 million tops, and that is stretching it

So the PS1 would have won even if those 3 games weren't made? Sure the PS1 still had the lead, but those games made it emerge a clear victor.

3 million more in Japan than N64 before FFVII? I think you mean after.

 Of course not, given that another PS3 will never be sold...Unlikely...

 Nope I mean before, PS1 was already past 4.7 million by the time FF7 launched, N64 was past 1.7 million and was selling less than PS1 on a weekly basis, even before FF7, sorry but PS1 had already won by that point, those three games did nothing really, it is revisionist history to think those three games will make a system

Excuse me, I'd just like to point out that in other threads, you've told me (many times over) that the PS and PS2 were/are in fact NOT casual. You are very inconsistent.