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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last Story - Japan sales prediction

The Last Story is launching Januari 27 in Japan. Final Fantasy creator Hironobu Sakaguchi is the game's director. Nintendo is the publisher and they seem to give this game the attention it deserves. It's one of the biggest releases for Wii in 2011. Nintendo has a special bundle in the works that combines a Wii, the game and a classic controller pro. All early buyers will get a bonus item called "Elements of The Last Story." This combines a mini soundtrack CD with a visual book.

I'm really curious if Japan will embrace this game. Nintendo is sure doing the best they can. Could The Last Story reach Final Fantasy kind of interest? I'm not sure where it will go sales wise, so I'll do a modest prediction and say:

  • 300k - 600k first week
  • edit: 1 million LTD

What do you think?



Think for yourself, question authority

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  • 200k first week
  • 400k LTD


For a new IP in Japan I really don't think 300-600k first week is a modest prediction.  Established JRPGs such as the Tales games haven't got anywhere near that.  300k lifetime (Japan) would, I think, be more realistic, and that's if it's a great success.



I go for:

  • 400 first week
  • 750 LTD


In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

120k FW and 500k LTD.

For what I saw it deserves the sales of DQ or FF games...but we're speaking of Japan, of Wii and of a JRPG: not big FW, average legs and modest LTD is to be expected. It has the potential to sell better in the West than in Japan I think, 2m is not out of the question if it launches in the first half of 2011!



CURRENTLY PLAYING: Xenoblade (Wii), Super mario 3D land (3DS), Guild Wars (PC)

 

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Declan said:

For a new IP in Japan I really don't think 300-600k first week is a modest prediction.  Established JRPGs such as the Tales games haven't got anywhere near that.  300k lifetime (Japan) would, I think, be more realistic, and that's if it's a great success.


I know it looks a bit on the high end but I can't remember when Nintendo was actually supporting a third party effort for their home consoles this much. With MH3 Nintendo was their to promote but I have a feeling their really going to give The Last Story a big marketing push.



Think for yourself, question authority

abroZ said:
Declan said:

For a new IP in Japan I really don't think 300-600k first week is a modest prediction.  Established JRPGs such as the Tales games haven't got anywhere near that.  300k lifetime (Japan) would, I think, be more realistic, and that's if it's a great success.


I know it looks a bit on the high end but I can't remember when Nintendo was actually supporting a third party effort for their home consoles this much. With MH3 Nintendo was their to promote but I have a feeling their really going to give The Last Story a big marketing push.

The last story is a Nintendo trademark, so it's first party.



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

150 fw

600 ltd




How much did Lost Oddessy & Blue Dragon do?



150k first week and 250k LTD in Japan.



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