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Forums - Sales - The Official November 2010 NPD Thread

koffieboon on 14 December 2010
thx1139 said:
saicho said:
koffieboon said:
Edouble24 said:

Nice chart showing revenue for the month. 360 going strong. 

I have my doubt that hardware chart is completely right. For this to be correct Xbox 360 needs to have an average price of almost twice that of a Wii and PS3 even needs an average price of over 2.5 times that of the Wii.

that's what I'm wondering too. I think it mentioned in the article that the average selling price for 360 is $290 which means average selling price for Wii is almost $150 for the month. Wii was sold at $50 discount of MSRP for the whole month?

Lets do some Algebra to figure out avg sales prices of the 3 consoles.

We know that total hardware revenue is $1.08 billion.
We know that X360 avg price was $290.
We know that between the 3 consoles the revenue split was X360 46%, PS3 29%, Wii 24%.

X360 revenue is $290*1,370,000 = 397,300,000

Formula for total revenue is X*.46=397,300,000 solve for X.

X*.46=397,300,000
X=397,300,000/.46
X=863,695,652

So revenue per console

Wii $207,286,956
PS3 $250,471,739
X360 $397,300,000

Avg price of console

Wii = $177 = $207,286,956 / 1,170,000
PS3 = $472 = $250,471,739 / 530,000  - This doesnt seem right
360 = $290 = $397,300,000 / 1,370,000

Everything seems right except the PS3 avg price. No way was the PS3 avg price was $472.  Did I calculate something wrong.  Wii avg price was heavily effected by special pricing.

I think that $ 290 for 360 is just a guess from the writer of the article, not number provided by NPD. And Wii sold 100k more than that, which would bring the average retail price down to just above $ 160.



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saicho on 14 December 2010
thx1139 said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
thx1139 said:

Lets do some Algebra to figure out avg sales prices of the 3 consoles.

We know that total hardware revenue is $1.08 billion.
We know that X360 avg price was $290.
We know that between the 3 consoles the revenue split was X360 46%, PS3 29%, Wii 24%.

X360 revenue is $290*1,370,000 = 397,300,000

Formula for total revenue is X*.46=397,300,000 solve for X.

X*.46=397,300,000
X=397,300,000/.46
X=863,695,652

So revenue per console

Wii $207,286,956
PS3 $250,471,739
X360 $397,300,000

Avg price of console

Wii = $177 = $207,286,956 / 1,170,000
PS3 = $472 = $250,471,739 / 530,000  - This doesnt seem right
360 = $290 = $397,300,000

Everything seems right except the PS3 avg price. No way was the PS3 avg price was $472.  Did I calculate something wrong.  Wii avg price was heavily effected by special pricing.


Like I said their data is highly questionable as they simply state they patched things together and that total doesn't make a whole lot of sense for PS3 or Wii, can someone even link places having 150 dollar Wiis?  I know a lot of places like walmart having an extra game with it on black friday everywhere else was 200 so that would be the average price for it as well.

BestBuy had Wii's in sale all BF weekend for $169 and they had loads of them. When you walked in the lined the aisles with stacks of Wii's (all 3 colors) in the two stores I was in on Friday and Saturday and they never seemed to run out.

As koffieboon pointed out, you used the wrong number for Wii. Using the correct number for Wii (1,270,000), the average price drops to $163. Even if BestBuy is selling Wii for $169 for the whole month, it's not gonna bring the average down to below $169.

It's either the author's assumption for average selling price for 360 is wrong or his hardware pie chart is wrong or actually both.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

MANUELF on 14 December 2010

Looks like Kinect was a success this month



Squilliam on 14 December 2010
MaxwellGT2000 said:


Man... I've got replies but I'm so dead tired, I just want to type NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO at you for a bit to counter your post but I fear without my orange marker I'm going to forget to come back and give you a proper response just quote me again and give me the marker so I can go nap and come back lol


Logic and reason always win at the end.



Tease.

MaxwellGT2000 on 14 December 2010
Squilliam said:

On price: Im talking about official price drops rather than special prices or retailer deals. Pachter already spoke of the lower average sale price of Wii titles compared to Xbox 360/PS3 titles which is greater than the 20% difference in the official launch prices from the start of the generation. If you have to hunt around for deals it isn't the same as someone just buying the first one they see. Most people don't shop around, you're just benefiting from price discrimination.

On movies vs games? That tells us nothing, sorry. You penetrate the murky hollywood financial accounting standards and report back to me on the lifecycle revenue of movies vs games. From what I can tell, movies aren't making money apparantly either but for what it is worth the big publishers are in the black.

How would you prove that the data in those pie charts is correct? They are afterall estimates based upon statistical polling techniques amongst others. So long as they are representative to within a few percentage points it really doesn't matter if the Xbox 360 got 46% of revenue or 47 or 45% because the message is the same regardless.

In the end so long as the Xbox 360 and PS3 both have high average unit sales and high margins on average per unit sold it will support a lot of developers. It doesn't matter how much each title costs to make, games like most entertainment mediums tend towards the median being unprofitable with the top few % making the majority of the profits. It doesn't matter whether it is the Wii or the Xbox 360 or the overall entertainment software market, nothing really deviates from this rule. The Wii isn't vastly profitable because development costs are low and the Xbox 360 and PS3 aren't vastly unprofitable because the development costs are high. The market just adjusts to the equilibrium regardless. 

 


Well for more on the validity of these charts you can do the math like these guys did it really doesn't add up, I'd like them to give more info about where they got their totals. Like VGC says they get their numbers from various retailers and such this guy in gamesurta said they patched things together off of little things that got leaked out there, nothing really solid. 

Movies are having a surge of higher sales which often happens during a recession, entertainment typically thrives in those times, that surge hit games as well, but still people are losing their jobs and even some of the biggest publishers like EA are posting losses each quarter. But it just backs up the thought you can have all the revenue if that doesn't outweigh the costs then it's just pointless.

As for price if we're going by flat rates then how could Wii be at a lower % compared to PS3 hardware when it's sold at 200 PS3 mainly at 300 and sold over 2 times the PS3 even at 150 dollars it would have to be a higher revenue percent.  If we could get some solid total software numbers by console with total revenue we could check their math on that as well, all of which factors into what prices they used and if their charts are reliable.

It's only logical



MaxwellGT2000 - "Does the amount of times you beat it count towards how hardcore you are?"

Wii Friend Code - 5882 9717 7391 0918 (PM me if you add me), PSN - MaxwellGT2000, XBL - BlkKniteCecil, MaxwellGT2000

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Squilliam on 15 December 2010
MaxwellGT2000 said:
Squilliam said:

On price: Im talking about official price drops rather than special prices or retailer deals. Pachter already spoke of the lower average sale price of Wii titles compared to Xbox 360/PS3 titles which is greater than the 20% difference in the official launch prices from the start of the generation. If you have to hunt around for deals it isn't the same as someone just buying the first one they see. Most people don't shop around, you're just benefiting from price discrimination.

On movies vs games? That tells us nothing, sorry. You penetrate the murky hollywood financial accounting standards and report back to me on the lifecycle revenue of movies vs games. From what I can tell, movies aren't making money apparantly either but for what it is worth the big publishers are in the black.

How would you prove that the data in those pie charts is correct? They are afterall estimates based upon statistical polling techniques amongst others. So long as they are representative to within a few percentage points it really doesn't matter if the Xbox 360 got 46% of revenue or 47 or 45% because the message is the same regardless.

In the end so long as the Xbox 360 and PS3 both have high average unit sales and high margins on average per unit sold it will support a lot of developers. It doesn't matter how much each title costs to make, games like most entertainment mediums tend towards the median being unprofitable with the top few % making the majority of the profits. It doesn't matter whether it is the Wii or the Xbox 360 or the overall entertainment software market, nothing really deviates from this rule. The Wii isn't vastly profitable because development costs are low and the Xbox 360 and PS3 aren't vastly unprofitable because the development costs are high. The market just adjusts to the equilibrium regardless. 

 


Well for more on the validity of these charts you can do the math like these guys did it really doesn't add up, I'd like them to give more info about where they got their totals. Like VGC says they get their numbers from various retailers and such this guy in gamesurta said they patched things together off of little things that got leaked out there, nothing really solid. 

Movies are having a surge of higher sales which often happens during a recession, entertainment typically thrives in those times, that surge hit games as well, but still people are losing their jobs and even some of the biggest publishers like EA are posting losses each quarter. But it just backs up the thought you can have all the revenue if that doesn't outweigh the costs then it's just pointless.

As for price if we're going by flat rates then how could Wii be at a lower % compared to PS3 hardware when it's sold at 200 PS3 mainly at 300 and sold over 2 times the PS3 even at 150 dollars it would have to be a higher revenue percent.  If we could get some solid total software numbers by console with total revenue we could check their math on that as well, all of which factors into what prices they used and if their charts are reliable.

It's only logical

As for the charts I would say they got more information from NPD than you or I ever will. They often compile such things as the average sales price of games and the average sale price of consoles. Given they are a much more legitimate source it goes without saying that they would be offered much better and more consistant information than we would get from NPD or leakers. Not everything which is leaked is public.

EA posting losses is hard to quantify because their studio structure is murky enough as it stands. What is likely is that they have structural issues within their organisation and they would be losing money whether the times were good or the times were bad. Most likely it would be good for the industry if bad companies like EA were to fall because it would give room for much leaner companies to thrive like for instance Zenimax publishing.

As for the Wii vs PS3 comparison. Well you do have a lot of Wii hardware sold @ $150-200 and much of that with a reasonable discount whilst the PS3 average may be in the ~$330-340 range now due to Move bundles. Like I said earlier they may be out by a few % points but the overall point which was that Wii ~= PS3 seems to hold true.



Tease.

MaxwellGT2000 on 15 December 2010
Squilliam said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
Squilliam said:

On price: Im talking about official price drops rather than special prices or retailer deals. Pachter already spoke of the lower average sale price of Wii titles compared to Xbox 360/PS3 titles which is greater than the 20% difference in the official launch prices from the start of the generation. If you have to hunt around for deals it isn't the same as someone just buying the first one they see. Most people don't shop around, you're just benefiting from price discrimination.

On movies vs games? That tells us nothing, sorry. You penetrate the murky hollywood financial accounting standards and report back to me on the lifecycle revenue of movies vs games. From what I can tell, movies aren't making money apparantly either but for what it is worth the big publishers are in the black.

How would you prove that the data in those pie charts is correct? They are afterall estimates based upon statistical polling techniques amongst others. So long as they are representative to within a few percentage points it really doesn't matter if the Xbox 360 got 46% of revenue or 47 or 45% because the message is the same regardless.

In the end so long as the Xbox 360 and PS3 both have high average unit sales and high margins on average per unit sold it will support a lot of developers. It doesn't matter how much each title costs to make, games like most entertainment mediums tend towards the median being unprofitable with the top few % making the majority of the profits. It doesn't matter whether it is the Wii or the Xbox 360 or the overall entertainment software market, nothing really deviates from this rule. The Wii isn't vastly profitable because development costs are low and the Xbox 360 and PS3 aren't vastly unprofitable because the development costs are high. The market just adjusts to the equilibrium regardless. 

 


Well for more on the validity of these charts you can do the math like these guys did it really doesn't add up, I'd like them to give more info about where they got their totals. Like VGC says they get their numbers from various retailers and such this guy in gamesurta said they patched things together off of little things that got leaked out there, nothing really solid. 

Movies are having a surge of higher sales which often happens during a recession, entertainment typically thrives in those times, that surge hit games as well, but still people are losing their jobs and even some of the biggest publishers like EA are posting losses each quarter. But it just backs up the thought you can have all the revenue if that doesn't outweigh the costs then it's just pointless.

As for price if we're going by flat rates then how could Wii be at a lower % compared to PS3 hardware when it's sold at 200 PS3 mainly at 300 and sold over 2 times the PS3 even at 150 dollars it would have to be a higher revenue percent.  If we could get some solid total software numbers by console with total revenue we could check their math on that as well, all of which factors into what prices they used and if their charts are reliable.

It's only logical

As for the charts I would say they got more information from NPD than you or I ever will. They often compile such things as the average sales price of games and the average sale price of consoles. Given they are a much more legitimate source it goes without saying that they would be offered much better and more consistant information than we would get from NPD or leakers. Not everything which is leaked is public.

 


Let me stop you right there, you're factually wrong, if you read the original article as I did, they got their information from the same sources we all did, leaks from Malstrom, Microsoft (who actually rounded up their numbers), and an NPD analyst.   I quoted that line if you look at my earlier posts, they said they "stitched" it together.  They had fragmented data that is privy to everyone, they're no more credible than you, me, or Dupree



MaxwellGT2000 - "Does the amount of times you beat it count towards how hardcore you are?"

Wii Friend Code - 5882 9717 7391 0918 (PM me if you add me), PSN - MaxwellGT2000, XBL - BlkKniteCecil, MaxwellGT2000

pachoo5 on 18 December 2010

So, I noticed that the sales numbers for Americas hasn't been updated for Novemeber yet on this site. For example, NPD has the following numbers for November:

360 - 1.37M

PS3 - 530k

For the same time period (from Nov 1 - Nov 27) VGChartz currently shows:

360 -1,457,921

PS3 - 732,134

Why the difference? Does VGChartz count other countries in the America's total than NPD does?



Immortal on 18 December 2010
pachoo5 said:

So, I noticed that the sales numbers for Americas hasn't been updated for Novemeber yet on this site. For example, NPD has the following numbers for November:

360 - 1.37M

PS3 - 530k

For the same time period (from Nov 1 - Nov 27) VGChartz currently shows:

360 -1,457,921

PS3 - 732,134

Why the difference? Does VGChartz count other countries in the America's total than NPD does?

Err, yeah. NPD = USA VGC = Americas



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

pachoo5 on 19 December 2010
Immortal said:
pachoo5 said:

So, I noticed that the sales numbers for Americas hasn't been updated for Novemeber yet on this site. For example, NPD has the following numbers for November:

360 - 1.37M

PS3 - 530k

For the same time period (from Nov 1 - Nov 27) VGChartz currently shows:

360 -1,457,921

PS3 - 732,134

Why the difference? Does VGChartz count other countries in the America's total than NPD does?

Err, yeah. NPD = USA VGC = Americas

Ahh, ok, thanks for clearing that up.