So how many games will cross 5 million sales on the PS3?

Metal Gear Solid (4)

 It already crossed 5 million

Gran Turismo (5 prologue)

 It already crossed 5 million

Uncharted (2)

Sales are currently at 4million after 1 year on the market. it will surely sell another 1 million in its lifetime. It will be at ~4.25million by year's end.

GH Uncharted 3, and future bundles could push sales to 6million. It should hit 5million by 2012. 

God of War (3)

Sales are currently at 3.28 million after 37 weeks. It's tracking SLIGHTLY below Uncharted 2. Uncharted 2 was at 3.4million after 37 weeks.

By years end, sales will be at about 3.5million. It will hit 4million in March or April. GH hits and Future Bundles could push this to 5.5million.

Final Fantasy (Versus XIII)

Final Fantasy XIII may reach 5 million on the PS3 alone.

If Versus matches the quality of XIII, then it should reach 5 million easily.

The games above have a pretty good chance to reach 5 million IMO. The games below are a little tricky.

AGENT

This could go either way. It's being developed by Rockstar NORTH. These are the guys who made Grand Theft Auto. 

KILLZONE (3)

Killzone 2 has sold 2.5million so far. It will probably die off at  ~3million. By the time Killzone 3 releases, KZ2 will be at ~2.65million (U1 sales were at 2.68m when U2 released). I'm expecting similar sales to Uncharted 2.

Killzone 3 will have many upgrades from Killzone 2. The biggest one is SPLIT SCREEN. This is a HUGE selling factor in video games. It will also REDUCE THE LAG from KZ2, which many hated in KZ2. Other smaller upgrades like stick-to-cover, HUGE SCALE, variety in environments, MOVE, 3D, etc will also help. KZ3 will also have double the install base from when KZ2 released. I predict 3.8million by the end of 2011 and ~5million lifetime. Crazy right? 

LittleBigPlanet (2)

LBP sales are currently at 3.85million. It will reach 4million by the end of the year. It will probably go on to sell ~4.5million. The thing about LBP is that it had a modest first year (only sold 2.5million). However it sold about 1.3million it's second year. The current legs are pretty damn good for a game that released in 2008.

I expect LBP2 to have a much better first year AND have the same legs from LBP. LBP2 looks to be a pretty big upgrade from LBP. I expect 4.5mil from this but 5mil is possible.

Starhawk

I really have no reasoning for this. Whenever I play Warhawk, I think "this should have sold like Halo". That's all my reasoning but it should still be considered.

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I'd also like to note that the biggest 3rd party (exclusive) devs for the PS2 were Kojima, SQUARE, and Rockstar. and it looks like they all will return to PS3 and make an exclusive game.

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Out of all of those, I predict there will be 4 - 6 (exclusive) 5million sellers on the PS3. That's pretty good for the PS3 any console. hmmm

I'll go with 5: MGS4, GT5, Uncharted 2, GOW3, and FFv13. 

AGENT, Killzone 3, LBP2, and starhawk also have a shot.

Again, I predict 5.

let me know if I missed any games that could reach 5million

So what do you B_E_L_I_E_V_E in?

I have nothing to add... you made a good overview and I just voted 7 or more because I believe in more games crossing 5m after2012.

Versus has a great chance if it stays exclusive. The PS3 version of the game will have surpassed 5 Million by the time it releases, and the 360 version will have sold about 2 Million. That's 7 Million potential buyers! And it's like... 100% BOUND to be a better game than XIII itself!

Uncharted 2 is a certainty at this point.

Uncharted 3 is also probably gonna hit the mark, if it's as good as Uncharted 2 and has the legs.

Gran Turismo 5 is a certainty.

Agent is a slight possibility, looking at the studio it's coming from. Still WAY too early to predict anything though considering we know absolutely nothing about it yet.

Little Big Planet 2 is also a possibility, providing that everyone who bought the original loved it.

Edit:
Gran Turismo 5: Prologue is already there is we include downloads.

Sports Champions may also make it there if Move continues with good sales.

Maybe I didn't make  myself clear. I don't want two games from the same franchise.

So Uncharted 1 & 2 would be 1. GT5 and GT5P would be 1.

no repeat franchises sooo obviously

metal gear solid 4

gran turismo 5

uncharted 2. (Should hit 6mil in my opinion)

Maybe

LittleBigPlanet 2, this is a real wildcard, hard to tell if it will outsell littlebigplanet or not since it will obviously be far more frontloaded now that it has a fanbase.

Close but won't happen

God of War 3 won't make it. It was much more frontloaded then uncharted 2. Black friday sales are irrelevent to legs due to bundles so lets compare last week. God of War 3 sold 17k 37 weeks after release. Uncharted 2 sold 30k 37weeks and  this is God of War 3's first holiday seasons sales. Hell uncharted 2 outsold god of war 3 last week by a large margain 38k vs 17k with this year being its second holiday.

Don't really see anything else announced yet that can other then FF Versus if it is exclusive.

So I'll say 4 since I think Littlebigplanet 2 has a 50-50 shot at making it and 50-50 chance sony will get another new franchise or a sequel that goes big.

GT5 Prologue already passed 5 million.

GT5 PROLOGUE already sold 5 million. so by your own rules you cant choose GT5.

MGS4, Uncharted 2 and 3, agent, ffXIIIvs., killzone 3

with resistance 3, infamous 2 and others getting close to 4 million.

ahh, i failed 

You forgot Grand Theft Auto 5 :D

Nah that won't happen, it'll be multiplat. I have nothing really to add except future GT's, Uncharted's, etc.

I'll go with Uncharted 2, Sports Champions, Gran Turismo 5, God of War 3, LittleBigPlanet 2, Killzone 3, and Final Fantasy XIII Versus ( If it remains exclusive ).

I think that both LBP2 and KZ3 will follow the path of Uncharted 2 in both critical acclaim and commercial success.