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no repeat franchises sooo obviously

metal gear solid 4

gran turismo 5

uncharted 2. (Should hit 6mil in my opinion)

Maybe

LittleBigPlanet 2, this is a real wildcard, hard to tell if it will outsell littlebigplanet or not since it will obviously be far more frontloaded now that it has a fanbase.

Close but won't happen

God of War 3 won't make it. It was much more frontloaded then uncharted 2. Black friday sales are irrelevent to legs due to bundles so lets compare last week. God of War 3 sold 17k 37 weeks after release. Uncharted 2 sold 30k 37weeks and  this is God of War 3's first holiday seasons sales. Hell uncharted 2 outsold god of war 3 last week by a large margain 38k vs 17k with this year being its second holiday.

Don't really see anything else announced yet that can other then FF Versus if it is exclusive.

So I'll say 4 since I think Littlebigplanet 2 has a 50-50 shot at making it and 50-50 chance sony will get another new franchise or a sequel that goes big.