Well since 360 had Black Ops and Kinect launch in november and roughly sold the same amount of units as the wii. I don't see the 360 having a chance at outselling the Wii in december whatsoever.

I don't either, I Just wanna see how much Source thinks 360 will be up YoY (did 1.3 mill last Dec NPD)

Edit - but you also have to take into consideration, 360 BF sales were v close to Wii's. And Kinect was more popular on BF than launch week. It's going to drive HW through Dec just as much as the Wii bundles will.

You're criticizing my analysis when you're using Wii Sports Resort, which released in June, rather than Wii Fit Plus which released in October? Beyond that 40k difference from NPD is nothing when you're talking of a jump of this magnitude. Going from 230k to 1050k isnt much different from jumping from 270k to 1050k. A jump over 3x when going from October to November is historic. I have USA data back to 1995 and its never happened before this year.

In 2009, Oct 2009 Wii sales were 127k per month in the USA. Nintendo said its BF Wii sales in Nov 2009 were 550,000. Wii did 1,260,000 that month. That means outside Black Friday, sales increased from 507k / 4 (Oct) to 710k / 3 (Nov - pre BF weeks) which is 237,000 per week, or 86% higher than the October average. In 2008, BF week Wii sales were 800,000, and Wii did 2,040,000 for the month by NPD - and so Wii did 1,240,000 in three non-BF Nov weeks (413,000 per week) up from 200,000 per week in October 2008. In 2007, Wii BF week sales were 350,000, and so Wii averaged 210,000 per week in non-BF weeks of Nov 2007, up from 130,000 per week in Oct 2007 .

Wii sales in Oct 2010 averaged 58,000. From what we've seen, the increase from Oct weeks to pre-BF weeks is anywhere from 60-100%. If we call it 80%, then even without any games or new bundles, and with the known BF figures, Wii did (58k * 1.8) * (3 weeks) (600k BF week) - 913,000 - at worst 10% lower than what VGC has (1050k). NPD had 232,000 in October 2010, so the x4 lift is already assured. Then you throw in the new Wii hardware bundles, DKC, Goldeneye, Oct sw, Udraw, catalogue software from pre-Oct, and various retailer promotions before BF and its not hard to add another 150k. I actually think we might be low - BF week sales have yet to be even 50% of a November for Wii, which could suggest over 1.2m in theory.

The November to December jump is usually determined by October to November lifts, and BF sales. December has five weeks, so you only need a 60% weekly increase to double sales from average November levels. If Wii ends up around 250k - 300k in November on average, but BF week was 600k, the math means Wii only has to maintain its BF pace to get to 3m, as BF was double the Nov weekly average. To do 600,000 on Black Friday week, its also important to remember Wii was only available below $200 for ONE DAY of that week, at $170-$190, while at Walmart, the discount to $150 is for ONE WEEK.

What I stated in the opening post is that Wii is already being discounted in December more than it was in November - with Walmart offering Wii for $150 for at least 20% of the period (compared to Black Friday, which is only 6 hours of one day, and had Wii down to only $170). On Black Friday the only retailers to put Wii down to $170-$190 were also much smaller than Walmart - Kmart (1-2% share), Best Buy (10-15% share), and Sears (1% share). Walmart is 25%-35% of the Wii market, and the discount is deeper and lasting for a longer period of time. Furthermore, unlike Black Friday there is no comparable discount this week for X360 or PS3 against Wii to maintain price disparity as there was on Black Friday .

Running on fumes with 3m in sales? Then PS360 are out of gas

Well I'm pumped for christmas, should be getting Epic Mickey, Donkey Kong and Epic Kirby

A few computer games, or soon computer games I think like Witcher 2 and stuff are like just after christmas. 

Then time to save money for teh 3DS

I'm actually (pleasantly) surprised on the marketing push that Epic Mickey is getting. Not only on television through commercials, but in the retailers themselves through posters and makeshift game kiosks dedicated to the game.

Seemed to be selling pretty darn well where I've been so far. Hopefully the game does well. ^_^

I think it should  break 3m, 3.5m is possible

How much did PS2 sell it's 5th US December for comparison?

NPD numbers

PS2 5th Holiday season

November 2005 - 530,000
December 2005 - 1,500,000

PS2 4th Holiday season

November 2004 - 690,000
December 2004 - 990,000

Wii strongest year - 2008

10,171,000

Wii second strongest year - 2009

9,595,000

PS2 strongest year -2002

8,320,000

PS2 second strongest year - 2003

6,320,000

Very interesting. I doubt wii will sell that much but I am in no position to argue your case and you could very well be proven right.

Regardless of what it sells the wii is proving to be a tenacious console. No matter what the other two throw at it it refuses to go away. I really thought the wii was about to be buried but it has proven me wrong.

Good job.