Increasing Likelihood of 3m Wiis Sold in US in Dec

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Zlejedi said:

That's rather one sided analysis.

In 2009 Wii had release of WSR and 2D Mario which were much bigger than DKC and Epic Mickey

in 2009 Wii was just after substantial price drop compared to single retailer wide price drop.

We don't have November NPD yet and only 100% certain part of it is 600k sales in Black Friday week. Assuming November 2010 number is estimate from VGC numbers and taking into consideration October Wii sales were 30-50k higher than NPD numbers that alone might mean substantial diffrence in Nov/Oct multiplier.

December 2009/October 2009 was 7,3x if we used it same way for 2010 we would have 1700k December.And that's another extreme just from looking at same numbers from diffrent perspective.

I predict 2400-2500k for December NPD.

You're criticizing my analysis when you're using Wii Sports Resort, which released in June, rather than Wii Fit Plus which released in October? Beyond that 40k difference from NPD is nothing when you're talking of a jump of this magnitude. Going from 230k to 1050k isnt much different from jumping from 270k to 1050k. A jump over 3x when going from October to November is historic. I have USA data back to 1995 and its never happened before this year.

In 2009, Oct 2009 Wii sales were 127k per month in the USA. Nintendo said its BF Wii sales in Nov 2009 were 550,000. Wii did 1,260,000 that month. That means outside Black Friday, sales increased from 507k / 4 (Oct) to 710k / 3 (Nov - pre BF weeks) which is 237,000 per week, or 86% higher than the October average. In 2008, BF week Wii sales were 800,000, and Wii did 2,040,000 for the month by NPD - and so Wii did 1,240,000 in three non-BF Nov weeks (413,000 per week) up from 200,000 per week in October 2008. In 2007, Wii BF week sales were 350,000, and so Wii averaged 210,000 per week in non-BF weeks of Nov 2007, up from 130,000 per week in Oct 2007 .

Wii sales in Oct 2010 averaged 58,000. From what we've seen, the increase from Oct weeks to pre-BF weeks is anywhere from 60-100%. If we call it 80%, then even without any games or new bundles, and with the known BF figures, Wii did (58k * 1.8) * (3 weeks) (600k BF week) - 913,000 - at worst 10% lower than what VGC has (1050k). NPD had 232,000 in October 2010, so the x4 lift is already assured. Then you throw in the new Wii hardware bundles, DKC, Goldeneye, Oct sw, Udraw, catalogue software from pre-Oct, and various retailer promotions before BF and its not hard to add another 150k. I actually think we might be low - BF week sales have yet to be even 50% of a November for Wii, which could suggest over 1.2m in theory.

The November to December jump is usually determined by October to November lifts, and BF sales. December has five weeks, so you only need a 60% weekly increase to double sales from average November levels. If Wii ends up around 250k - 300k in November on average, but BF week was 600k, the math means Wii only has to maintain its BF pace to get to 3m, as BF was double the Nov weekly average. To do 600,000 on Black Friday week, its also important to remember Wii was only available below $200 for ONE DAY of that week, at $170-$190, while at Walmart, the discount to $150 is for ONE WEEK.

What I stated in the opening post is that Wii is already being discounted in December more than it was in November - with Walmart offering Wii for $150 for at least 20% of the period (compared to Black Friday, which is only 6 hours of one day, and had Wii down to only $170). On Black Friday the only retailers to put Wii down to $170-$190 were also much smaller than Walmart - Kmart (1-2% share), Best Buy (10-15% share), and Sears (1% share). Walmart is 25%-35% of the Wii market, and the discount is deeper and lasting for a longer period of time. Furthermore, unlike Black Friday there is no comparable discount this week for X360 or PS3 against Wii to maintain price disparity as there was on Black Friday .