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Forums - General Discussion - Android users over taking I phone users in the U.S.

famousringo on 04 December 2010
mrstickball said:
famousringo said:

To answer your first question, Apple limited themselves to AT&T because that was the price of entry into the US smartphone market. You can't succeed by just selling a phone in the US, you need the carriers to showcase, distribute, most importantly, to subsidize the handset. Verizon passed on the original iPhone because Apple insisted that they, not Verizon, would have absolute control over the software. AT&T was willing to concede software control in exchange for exclusivity, so they inked a deal with Apple. It's one of the best deals that either company has ever made.

Compare that to the Nexus One, which tried to ditch the carriers and, correct me if I'm wrong, failed to even sell a million units, despite having excellent hardware and better software support than any Android phone before or since.

To answer your second question, yes the iPhone uses a standard SIM card.

Nightsurge brings up an important point by mentioning the iPod Touch. While Symbian, Android, and others have been considering themselves to be phone platforms, Apple immediately started to position themselves as a mobile computing platform. It's a subtle, but important, distinction that Apple treats the iPhone as a computer that can make calls rather than a phone that can run programs. It's allowed them to leverage their MP3 player hegemony and recreate the tablet computer in support of their mobile ecosystem. No other mobile platform will really be a threat to iOS until its software market starts to be anywhere near as lucrative as the App Store.

Actually, Android has had iPod-like devices for quite some time. They also did tablets before the iPad came out through Archos.

As I understand it, Archos devices are locked out of the Android Market because they don't have a 3G radio. They run Android, but they're shut out of the heart of the ecosystem. That's why the Galaxy Tab has no WiFi-only version, and even that device ends up running a lot of software designed for 3.5-inch screens.

Google has yet to make a strategic move to expand Android beyond phones, even if a few niche hardware players like Archos try to take it there. Tablet-ready Android 3.0 will be the first step unless they grant WiFi-only devices access to the Market. 3.0 looks like it will be coming about a year after the iPad launched, while the iPod Touch has been a full-fledged partner to the iPhone for three full years now.

Still, at least they're moving in the right direction. Microsoft seems terrified that tablets running Windows Phone 7 might undermine sales of Windows 7 on tablets and netbooks. So instead, they'll let iOS and Android tablets undermine sales of Windows 7. Classic incumbent behavior.



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Kasz216 on 04 December 2010
mrstickball said:

I'm surprised Kasz or anyone for that matters cares about my mobile opinions, but here it goes:

Its not unexpected for Android to lead iPhone. Truth be told, we should be getting used to it, because I don't believe there is an OS that will threaten Android for the forseeable future. There will be blips and bumps, but there is just too much going for Android, and too little done by the competition to steal its thunder. I expect Android to become the majority stakeholder of OS sales, worldwide, in about 2 years.

As per Gartner, Android was the 2nd best selling smartphone worldwide. That is even more damning for other OSes than this ComScore report. Although its notable that RIM is now losing out to Android, its not unexpected. RIM reached market saturation some time ago, and is unlikely to do anything extrordinary to capture a larger market share.

Android will continue to win, because the business models of every other company are not the same goals as Android. Android is an OS, and is handset-agnostic. There is only one other handset-agonistic OS available, and it has been losing market share since Android came out, and will be extinct in a few years (Windows Mobile).

If you look at the business methods by the other players, you understand that they didn't gear their product offerings in such a way as to become the dominant player. It really isn't their fault (most of them, anyways), because they didn't understand how the smartphone market worked.

 

My take on why the other OSes will not beat Android:

Symbian is the leader, and has been for as long as sales charts for OSes has been around. They are the go-to choice for Nokia phones, who is the market leader. The only problem is that Nokia smartphones are usually very expensive phones that are non-subsidized. That is, you must pay $500-$700 for them, which makes them a very poor choice in the West. Furthermore, their OS, from what I can tell, isn't that great when it comes to market place functionality. Symbian has lost market share to virtually everyone for the past 2 to 3 years...I don't expect their fortunes to reverse. I would imagine that eventually Nokia will drop them entirely, and Symbian will be a footnote in the smartphone OS wars in 4-5 years.

iOS is obviously the one everyone talks about...World-class gaming...Smartphone-defining features...The gold standard of smartphones. The problem is that Apple made the same mistake with phones that they did with computers: They are a cartel. They maintain a stranglehold on what is an iPhone, both for better and for worse. There are certain advantages with their model: They make tons of money (which is what matters, right?), they sell tons of games, and their software is arguably the best from a reliability standpoint, due to very few hardware/software combinations out there. But that is also their weakness: They sell their phones on a limited number of networks, and a limited number of styles. Mac's aren't sold more than PCs because there is only one or two styles of Macs available (this is a generality, I know, but you get where I'm going). Likewise, if you want a QWERTY keyboard, or certain smartphone features, your SOL if they aren't on an iPhone. Furthermore, we're seeing more and more people migrate to Smartphones...19% of all mobiles sold, worldwide, are now considered a 'smart phone'. The note about this is that the standards of what goes into a phone are going up, but the cost consumers are willing to pay are not. There will always be demand for free or cheap phones...Which is something that Apple will never offer.

BlackBerry's are starting to become a less seen. They were certainly a US-centric phone, which makes it very bad that they're seeing a reduced share against Android. They have some of the good and bad points of iOS. RIM did the right thing and put as many styles of BlackBerry's on the market, and put them on every carrier. Unfortunately, the BlackBerry OS isn't as good (IMO) as iOS or Android, and their stylistic choices aren't as good as either, as well. Eventually, they will become the Palm of the decade....And end up shuttering in about 7-10 years, unless they do something crazy. If you don't believe that RIM's days are numbered, look at the new Droid Pro ads. Motorola is going directly for the business-class BlackBerry user.

 

Now, this isn't to say that Android is flawless. Business model wise, it's done the best of all of them by offering as many styles on as many carriers as possible, backed by a pretty good OS. However, its market place is inferior to iOS. Couple that with the downside to so many models being that developers have a hard time porting to enough devices, and you run into problems with applications. Revenue from the Android market place is, quite franky, abysmal for the size of the market. I think its NiKKom that is a mobile dev, but there is a VGC user that works for both Android and iOS applications...And he believes the same..The market is deeply flawed. I think that Google will fix the problems, by ensuring a slower rollout of OS revisions (they've done well since 2.2, it seems). But in the end, I think that Android has reached a critical mass that is unlikely to be reversed.

Well your blog seemed well informed on it.



rocketpig on 04 December 2010

Comparing Apple's mistakes to their battle with PCs in the 80s/90s is a lazy argument full of holes.

Phones are an entirely different world. Apple lost to MS because of BUSINESS PCs. They were cheaper, more flexible, and catered to the business world, after which the consumer market formed and followed that lead. How on Earth does this have anything to do with $100/200 cell phones? It's a cheap basis to form an analysis that isn't relevant to 2010 and the mobile market.

Android WILL have the largest portion of the market and will hold it for the forseeable future. That's nearly a given at this point. The big difference is that Apple will continue to make more money than Google for the forseeable future. While Google's actions have given them marketshare, it's also going to hurt them in many ways moving forward. Here are a few reasons:

1. Cheap phones. It gives them marketshare but will also hurt them from a consumer perspective in a few ways. Having such drastic hardware tiers means that OS updates, apps, and core features just won't work on a phone that is still within its contract period.

2. Reliance on hardware manufacturers to provide core features. Leaving OS updates to the benevolence of hardware makers is a huge mistake. Some manufacturers will be great about providing updates. Some will not. Shit, some phones were just getting a 2.2 update six months after the update released. Some aren't getting updated at all. Given the vast improvements in 2.2, that's hardly a confidence-inspiring approach to consumers.

3. Customization. Allowing manufacturers to heavily modify the OS provides an inconsistent experience that means some Android experiences will not share much in common. It also allows manufacturers to neuter phone functions and drastically alter the phone's interface.

4. The app store. Jesus, it's broken. On top of that, no one seems to buy anything from it and I don't see that changing soon, which means that all the great apps WILL be on iPhone, even possibly exclusive to iOS. Google isn't giving developers much incentive to push their platform to new heights.

The iPhone is far from perfect as well. Apple having a chokehold on every aspect of the user experience limits hardware and software features and will ultimately turn off many users (and already has). On the flipside, their price points are in line with much of the market (unlike their PC war days), their user experience is 100% consistent, their store is profitable and developer-friendly (in most cases), and every phone will receive support for at least 3 years. In a device that costs roughly 1/20th of the average computer during the 80s PC/Mac war and one that is NOT primarily driven by business consumers, this is a formula that will not only succeed but will thrive in upcoming years. The consumer market doesn't need the flexibility of business; they need a product that is well-rounded enough to do 90% of what they need and, most importantly, one that WORKS every time in a consistent, friendly way. iPhone has that in spades.

Apple has their hands full with Google but in no way is their business model threatened right now. They will remain the most profitable company in the industry for quite some time and while Google has entrenched themselves in a great position for long-term dominance and prosperity, in no way are they going to push out Apple like Microsoft did in the mid-90s. To think otherwise is folly and isn't really examining the key differences between the early computer market and the mobile market of today.




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oldschoolfool on 04 December 2010

I have a droid. there you guy,I'm part of the revolt. lol



Raze on 04 December 2010

I personally love my Android phone (Samsung Moment). The screen cracked recently, still usable, but I'm going to switch soon to the Virgin mobile prepay service, now that they have the Samsung Instinct for use with their service. $25/month unlimited data 300 talk minutes. The Instinct is pretty much the Moment 2. Sprint did me dirty, and stopped supporting the Moment 3 months into me having the thing. No Android Froyo updates =(



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O-D-C on 04 December 2010

good, death to the iPhone!



Soonerman on 04 December 2010
mrstickball said:

I'm surprised Kasz or anyone for that matters cares about my mobile opinions, but here it goes:

Its not unexpected for Android to lead iPhone. Truth be told, we should be getting used to it, because I don't believe there is an OS that will threaten Android for the forseeable future. There will be blips and bumps, but there is just too much going for Android, and too little done by the competition to steal its thunder. I expect Android to become the majority stakeholder of OS sales, worldwide, in about 2 years.

As per Gartner, Android was the 2nd best selling smartphone worldwide. That is even more damning for other OSes than this ComScore report. Although its notable that RIM is now losing out to Android, its not unexpected. RIM reached market saturation some time ago, and is unlikely to do anything extrordinary to capture a larger market share.

Android will continue to win, because the business models of every other company are not the same goals as Android. Android is an OS, and is handset-agnostic. There is only one other handset-agonistic OS available, and it has been losing market share since Android came out, and will be extinct in a few years (Windows Mobile).

If you look at the business methods by the other players, you understand that they didn't gear their product offerings in such a way as to become the dominant player. It really isn't their fault (most of them, anyways), because they didn't understand how the smartphone market worked.

 

My take on why the other OSes will not beat Android:

Symbian is the leader, and has been for as long as sales charts for OSes has been around. They are the go-to choice for Nokia phones, who is the market leader. The only problem is that Nokia smartphones are usually very expensive phones that are non-subsidized. That is, you must pay $500-$700 for them, which makes them a very poor choice in the West. Furthermore, their OS, from what I can tell, isn't that great when it comes to market place functionality. Symbian has lost market share to virtually everyone for the past 2 to 3 years...I don't expect their fortunes to reverse. I would imagine that eventually Nokia will drop them entirely, and Symbian will be a footnote in the smartphone OS wars in 4-5 years.

iOS is obviously the one everyone talks about...World-class gaming...Smartphone-defining features...The gold standard of smartphones. The problem is that Apple made the same mistake with phones that they did with computers: They are a cartel. They maintain a stranglehold on what is an iPhone, both for better and for worse. There are certain advantages with their model: They make tons of money (which is what matters, right?), they sell tons of games, and their software is arguably the best from a reliability standpoint, due to very few hardware/software combinations out there. But that is also their weakness: They sell their phones on a limited number of networks, and a limited number of styles. Mac's aren't sold more than PCs because there is only one or two styles of Macs available (this is a generality, I know, but you get where I'm going). Likewise, if you want a QWERTY keyboard, or certain smartphone features, your SOL if they aren't on an iPhone. Furthermore, we're seeing more and more people migrate to Smartphones...19% of all mobiles sold, worldwide, are now considered a 'smart phone'. The note about this is that the standards of what goes into a phone are going up, but the cost consumers are willing to pay are not. There will always be demand for free or cheap phones...Which is something that Apple will never offer.

BlackBerry's are starting to become a less seen. They were certainly a US-centric phone, which makes it very bad that they're seeing a reduced share against Android. They have some of the good and bad points of iOS. RIM did the right thing and put as many styles of BlackBerry's on the market, and put them on every carrier. Unfortunately, the BlackBerry OS isn't as good (IMO) as iOS or Android, and their stylistic choices aren't as good as either, as well. Eventually, they will become the Palm of the decade....And end up shuttering in about 7-10 years, unless they do something crazy. If you don't believe that RIM's days are numbered, look at the new Droid Pro ads. Motorola is going directly for the business-class BlackBerry user.

 

Now, this isn't to say that Android is flawless. Business model wise, it's done the best of all of them by offering as many styles on as many carriers as possible, backed by a pretty good OS. However, its market place is inferior to iOS. Couple that with the downside to so many models being that developers have a hard time porting to enough devices, and you run into problems with applications. Revenue from the Android market place is, quite franky, abysmal for the size of the market. I think its NiKKom that is a mobile dev, but there is a VGC user that works for both Android and iOS applications...And he believes the same..The market is deeply flawed. I think that Google will fix the problems, by ensuring a slower rollout of OS revisions (they've done well since 2.2, it seems). But in the end, I think that Android has reached a critical mass that is unlikely to be reversed.

Great report Mr. Stickball! I will add tho, that although I agree that Android will take over eventually, Apply did a smart decision with their iPhone. It has locked one of the best markets, and that's the young to young adults market. iPhones are stylish and popular, the Android OS does not get that with their providers. The trend I'm seeing and I believe will stick for a while is that the younger crowd will continue getting iPhones, it's just a lifestyle like buying Abercrombie. They will however move on to Android OS once they are past that stage since other priorities come into place such as family and whatnot. 

Anyway, just my 2 cents!