Comparing Apple's mistakes to their battle with PCs in the 80s/90s is a lazy argument full of holes.
Phones are an entirely different world. Apple lost to MS because of BUSINESS PCs. They were cheaper, more flexible, and catered to the business world, after which the consumer market formed and followed that lead. How on Earth does this have anything to do with $100/200 cell phones? It's a cheap basis to form an analysis that isn't relevant to 2010 and the mobile market.
Android WILL have the largest portion of the market and will hold it for the forseeable future. That's nearly a given at this point. The big difference is that Apple will continue to make more money than Google for the forseeable future. While Google's actions have given them marketshare, it's also going to hurt them in many ways moving forward. Here are a few reasons:
1. Cheap phones. It gives them marketshare but will also hurt them from a consumer perspective in a few ways. Having such drastic hardware tiers means that OS updates, apps, and core features just won't work on a phone that is still within its contract period.
2. Reliance on hardware manufacturers to provide core features. Leaving OS updates to the benevolence of hardware makers is a huge mistake. Some manufacturers will be great about providing updates. Some will not. Shit, some phones were just getting a 2.2 update six months after the update released. Some aren't getting updated at all. Given the vast improvements in 2.2, that's hardly a confidence-inspiring approach to consumers.
3. Customization. Allowing manufacturers to heavily modify the OS provides an inconsistent experience that means some Android experiences will not share much in common. It also allows manufacturers to neuter phone functions and drastically alter the phone's interface.
4. The app store. Jesus, it's broken. On top of that, no one seems to buy anything from it and I don't see that changing soon, which means that all the great apps WILL be on iPhone, even possibly exclusive to iOS. Google isn't giving developers much incentive to push their platform to new heights.
The iPhone is far from perfect as well. Apple having a chokehold on every aspect of the user experience limits hardware and software features and will ultimately turn off many users (and already has). On the flipside, their price points are in line with much of the market (unlike their PC war days), their user experience is 100% consistent, their store is profitable and developer-friendly (in most cases), and every phone will receive support for at least 3 years. In a device that costs roughly 1/20th of the average computer during the 80s PC/Mac war and one that is NOT primarily driven by business consumers, this is a formula that will not only succeed but will thrive in upcoming years. The consumer market doesn't need the flexibility of business; they need a product that is well-rounded enough to do 90% of what they need and, most importantly, one that WORKS every time in a consistent, friendly way. iPhone has that in spades.
Apple has their hands full with Google but in no way is their business model threatened right now. They will remain the most profitable company in the industry for quite some time and while Google has entrenched themselves in a great position for long-term dominance and prosperity, in no way are they going to push out Apple like Microsoft did in the mid-90s. To think otherwise is folly and isn't really examining the key differences between the early computer market and the mobile market of today.
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