ok so...

he does seem shifty and inconsistant in his stance.

on the other hand, it seems to me that he always manages to get the heat on himself on day one, somehow... whether town or SK (seen 3 games of his so far).

While I agree that there should be some kind of distribution (heph mentioned a bell-curve), it really becomes wildly unpredictable once you start factoring in success rates of different roles. Additionally, chance does not equal occurrence. The graph entirely consists of RANDOM voting, and what we are doing here is hardly random. There's just no real way to test anything other than the worst case scenario.

And so the tessting is meaningless

WHAT

This started? 0_o

/tracking

Again, I'm eligible for replacements 

I've noticed this too. 

Perhaps we should focus on some of the guys who have barely posted until we have more information on his actions.

I'd like to hear what Kantor has to say. He showed up an hour ago saying he was going to read through and then never returned. Seems pretty scummy to me.

unvote

FoS Kantor

Why don't you ever just join like a normal player, instead of hovering around to pick off the dead?

I've decided that in this cats-and-dogs themed game, you're the buzzard!

Somewhat.

Perhaps I've missed something, but the first two and a half pages are almost all composed of meta-meta-theories and ridiculous tables with arbitrary probabilities of what could happen.

Oh, and a bunch of random voting because of some entirely made-up percentages.

...other than the worst case scenario, yes.

I do want to point out to you though, that if you think you can sit around and wait for mafia to slip-up or get caught in a lie, you're going to be waiting a long time. There are going to be mislynches regardless. So it's important to understand that in situations like these, it's not that big a deal to mislynch. In fact, this is the only situation in which it makes little difference if you mislynch. At other times, it's more disruptive, but this is the only time where a mislynch will be the least impactful. I think that information is important to note, when deciding whether to lynch or not. 

In some situations, I would be against lynching on day 1. This is one of the rare cases where I think a lynch is a statistically good bet, even if it is random.

noname with his 5 jobs and wonky being new were your best bets. they seem active so not sure you'll maintain your play streak.

posted as soon as I fosed him for lurking.

vote: kantor