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Forums - Sales - Some Early Thoughts on Kinect Performance

HappySqurriel on 10 November 2010
bannedagain said:

Lets wait for the numbers. I don't think anyone has a clue what the reaction is going to be. I think it will snowball. first week ok, second week, better, third week, sold out.


I'm expecting the opposite ...

Excellent sales first week, large reduction second week, further reduction following week, black friday bounce, then falling to (close to) third week sales for the rest of the holiday season, and ending up with 50,000 to 100,000 sales weekly for most of 2011.



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askel50 on 10 November 2010
theprof00 said:
askel50 said:

Isnt't it normal for the console maker when an accessory is low in supply to push for the bundles? We have seen this happen in the past. Now there aren't enought kinect to keep with the demand, so imo they are shipping more bundles then they normally would do. I wouldn't be surprised if the ratio was 50/50 or more. Beside everyone knew that kinect would have started by selling to people who already owned an xbox 360. The wii also started that way, usually casual gamers don't rush to buy something on day one.

this has never happened. This is like saying people bought consoles for the controllers inside, once the controller supply ran out.

every single standalone kinect pairs with a 360. On one end, it's perfect synchrony. New users can buy both, 360 users can buy the kinect. Perfect market.

On the other hand you have a bunch of bundles that 360 owners will have to spend double for to get kinect, but new owners will be able to buy it.

In these kinds of pushes, the manufacturer really wants there to be JUST ENOUGH bundles, but plenty more standalones. This might not be the case for microsoft.

My point was that if you have an hot new item complementary to an item that has been in the market for some time, it's good policy to "use" the new item to push the old one. If you think back both wiimote and wiifit had their initial shortage period, in those days bundles were the only way to find them (not necessarily nintendo bundles). Obviously ideal would be to ship enough to satisfy the demand, but if that's not possible, or a shortage happen, you may get a rate skewed toward the bundles.



BadF***ingButters on 10 November 2010
HappySqurriel said:
daroamer said:
Jordahn said:
daroamer said:
Jordahn said:
daroamer said:

The Wii sold most of its units at the $250 price point, Xbox 360 with Kinect is $300.  $50 is not a deal breaker especially since it can also play DVDs and has HD graphics.

The market has changed.  When the Wii was $250, there was no Kinect while the Core 360 was $300.  Now, we have a base model 360 Slim with Kinect compared to a $200 Wii with two games a Motion Plus.  $300 for a base model 360 Slim with Kinect is not bad.  But in today's market there is a much bigger difference with the Wii.

I'm not making a comparison to the current Wii.  The original point was that people will spend $250 if it's a fun experience and $300 is not that big a different.  This isn't about whether they would rather spend money on the current Wii or Xbox 360, just whether the price is too much to even consider for casuals, clearly it isn't.

AGAIN, different market.  You'd be naive to buy a "new" never-been-used 5 year old plasma TV at its original price in today's market when Plasma tech has advanced while paying less for it.  Do I need to explain further?

Yes, you're missing the point.

When the TV was new and state of the art it was worth $2000 and you were willing to pay it.  You wouldn't pay $2000 for that TV now since it's no longer state of the art.  However, you would still be willing to spend $2000 an a new TV that is brand new, state of the art and way more sophisticated  with better picture and features than what you bought 5 years ago.

The amount of money you spend isn't the issue, it's what you're getting for your money.

Kinect is perceptibly way more advanced than the Wii (especially to casuals), not to mention the Xbox is way more advanced as well.  HD graphics, better sound and more features.

That is a statement that really needs to be demonstrated ...

Being that consumers did not buy into controller free gaming with the Eye-Toy, and I doubt they saw it as being "more advanced" when it was introduced years ago, and (while Kinect is newer technology) I see little evidence that attitudes have changed.

HappySqurriel off. Oops I think I am to close.



theprof00 on 10 November 2010
askel50 said:

My point was that if you have an hot new item complementary to an item that has been in the market for some time, it's good policy to "use" the new item to push the old one. If you think back both wiimote and wiifit had their initial shortage period, in those days bundles were the only way to find them (not necessarily nintendo bundles). Obviously ideal would be to ship enough to satisfy the demand, but if that's not possible, or a shortage happen, you may get a rate skewed toward the bundles.

That is good policy. However, that is usually a time-based feature and usually only limited quantities, but yes, there are bundles all the time with new games to try and sell the system. For example, most consoles bundled with a new game only have about 300k-1M.  I don't know the numbers off hand for the halo bundles, but ps3 bundles with mgs4 and others only had about 100k quantity. The arcade with double pack with lego indiana jones and kung fu panda was only about 1M , while there were at least that many of the games and a lot more on the shelves.

Wiimote and wiifit had shortages because that is how nintendo uses shortage to create demand. Nintendo always underships.

However, I remeber well when wii fit and balance board came out. The only thing available was wii fit the game. This example is different from kinect though, in that kinect has preexisting uses already and 360 owners can simply buy a kinect and a game, whereas the balance board was pretty much useless at the time if you didn't have wii fit. I see how the examples are similar, but what really sets them apart is that 360 owners can always just buy a kinect and see value in that product, whereas a balance board serves no purpose both to those who own a wii and don't own a wii.....without wii fit.



Beuli2 on 10 November 2010
theprof00 said:
askel50 said:

My point was that if you have an hot new item complementary to an item that has been in the market for some time, it's good policy to "use" the new item to push the old one. If you think back both wiimote and wiifit had their initial shortage period, in those days bundles were the only way to find them (not necessarily nintendo bundles). Obviously ideal would be to ship enough to satisfy the demand, but if that's not possible, or a shortage happen, you may get a rate skewed toward the bundles.

That is good policy. However, that is usually a time-based feature and usually only limited quantities, but yes, there are bundles all the time with new games to try and sell the system. For example, most consoles bundled with a new game only have about 300k-1M.  I don't know the numbers off hand for the halo bundles, but ps3 bundles with mgs4 and others only had about 100k quantity. The arcade with double pack with lego indiana jones and kung fu panda was only about 1M , while there were at least that many of the games and a lot more on the shelves.

Wiimote and wiifit had shortages because that is how nintendo uses shortage to create demand. Nintendo always underships.

However, I remeber well when wii fit and balance board came out. The only thing available was wii fit the game. This example is different from kinect though, in that kinect has preexisting uses already and 360 owners can simply buy a kinect and a game, whereas the balance board was pretty much useless at the time if you didn't have wii fit. I see how the examples are similar, but what really sets them apart is that 360 owners can always just buy a kinect and see value in that product, whereas a balance board serves no purpose both to those who own a wii and don't own a wii.....without wii fit.

What the hell? No one creates shortages on purpose. That's extremmely stupid and seem to exist only in some delusional minds.



Above: still the best game of the year.

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Yuyyder on 10 November 2010

it is good, but can it boost HW sales ? Most of theese should be early adopters.



theprof00 on 10 November 2010
Beuli2 said:
theprof00 said:
askel50 said:

My point was that if you have an hot new item complementary to an item that has been in the market for some time, it's good policy to "use" the new item to push the old one. If you think back both wiimote and wiifit had their initial shortage period, in those days bundles were the only way to find them (not necessarily nintendo bundles). Obviously ideal would be to ship enough to satisfy the demand, but if that's not possible, or a shortage happen, you may get a rate skewed toward the bundles.

That is good policy. However, that is usually a time-based feature and usually only limited quantities, but yes, there are bundles all the time with new games to try and sell the system. For example, most consoles bundled with a new game only have about 300k-1M.  I don't know the numbers off hand for the halo bundles, but ps3 bundles with mgs4 and others only had about 100k quantity. The arcade with double pack with lego indiana jones and kung fu panda was only about 1M , while there were at least that many of the games and a lot more on the shelves.

Wiimote and wiifit had shortages because that is how nintendo uses shortage to create demand. Nintendo always underships.

However, I remeber well when wii fit and balance board came out. The only thing available was wii fit the game. This example is different from kinect though, in that kinect has preexisting uses already and 360 owners can simply buy a kinect and a game, whereas the balance board was pretty much useless at the time if you didn't have wii fit. I see how the examples are similar, but what really sets them apart is that 360 owners can always just buy a kinect and see value in that product, whereas a balance board serves no purpose both to those who own a wii and don't own a wii.....without wii fit.

What the hell? No one creates shortages on purpose. That's extremmely stupid and seem to exist only in some delusional minds.

shortages increases demand which increases hype.

And you'r calling me stupid on top of it?



libellule on 10 November 2010
HappySqurriel said:
bannedagain said:

Lets wait for the numbers. I don't think anyone has a clue what the reaction is going to be. I think it will snowball. first week ok, second week, better, third week, sold out.


I'm expecting the opposite ...

Excellent sales first week, large reduction second week, further reduction following week, black friday bounce, then falling to (close to) third week sales for the rest of the holiday season, and ending up with 50,000 to 100,000 sales weekly for most of 2011.

50k-100k weekly is still VERY good particularly if it is only NA !



Time to Work !

Beuli2 on 10 November 2010
theprof00 said:
Beuli2 said:
theprof00 said:
askel50 said:

My point was that if you have an hot new item complementary to an item that has been in the market for some time, it's good policy to "use" the new item to push the old one. If you think back both wiimote and wiifit had their initial shortage period, in those days bundles were the only way to find them (not necessarily nintendo bundles). Obviously ideal would be to ship enough to satisfy the demand, but if that's not possible, or a shortage happen, you may get a rate skewed toward the bundles.

That is good policy. However, that is usually a time-based feature and usually only limited quantities, but yes, there are bundles all the time with new games to try and sell the system. For example, most consoles bundled with a new game only have about 300k-1M.  I don't know the numbers off hand for the halo bundles, but ps3 bundles with mgs4 and others only had about 100k quantity. The arcade with double pack with lego indiana jones and kung fu panda was only about 1M , while there were at least that many of the games and a lot more on the shelves.

Wiimote and wiifit had shortages because that is how nintendo uses shortage to create demand. Nintendo always underships.

However, I remeber well when wii fit and balance board came out. The only thing available was wii fit the game. This example is different from kinect though, in that kinect has preexisting uses already and 360 owners can simply buy a kinect and a game, whereas the balance board was pretty much useless at the time if you didn't have wii fit. I see how the examples are similar, but what really sets them apart is that 360 owners can always just buy a kinect and see value in that product, whereas a balance board serves no purpose both to those who own a wii and don't own a wii.....without wii fit.

What the hell? No one creates shortages on purpose. That's extremmely stupid and seem to exist only in some delusional minds.

shortages increases demand which increases hype.

And you'r calling me stupid on top of it?

Most people that buy Wii's don't do it on hype.

And no, only delusional. And tell me one economics expert ar a book about economics that says that using shortages intentionnaly is a good thing.



Above: still the best game of the year.

thx1139 on 10 November 2010

250GB bundle now selling better on Amazon then sensor. May simply because Amazon still out of stock of sensors.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.