Sorry, but you sound like a fan boy.

I wonder if people mocking the TC actually fully read his argument?

He is not talking about which console will have the highest LTD shipments in 2 years, or 4 years. Rather he thinks the PS3 may have the highest LTD shipments by 2016, or more appropriately by the time it stops production.

Yes, it can happen. It can happen quite simply, and that is by 1)  Nintendo ending Wii production long before the PS3 stops production, 2) the Wii continuing to experience a very strong downturn over the next couple of years.

If the PS3 is a 'late-bloomer' console (only putting up high shipments numbers after being price cut down to $299), and the Wii is an 'early-bloomer' console, it is not beyond the realm of possibility for PS3 to make up the large gap established earlier this gen.

It has lots of room for further growth through price cuts. More than either of the other two systems.

Then if you factor in Sony's strong presence in developing and emerging markets, such as Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, I'd be certain that the PS3 will still be on the market in 5 more years and Sony will be pushing the system aggressively in those places. Nintendo doesn't have an official presence in most of these areas, and if they don't establish one, it will hurt the Wii's longevity.

I'm not saying I expect the PS3 will pass the Wii. I don't. But people looking at when the next generation begins are missing the argument. The battle continues long after that. Just look at the shipment numbers the PS2 put up against the Wii last quarter. Think of how long it took the PS1 to reach 100 million units (answer: 9 and a half years).

To bad a lot of people are just screaming and laughing at this without breaking down any real expectations. First of all i have already stated in a thread that i think there really is a very slight chance of the PS3 eventialy outselling the Wii, although by that time there probably won't be much software support. First let me quote myself about the PS3, where as i truly believe it very likely to pass 100 million in the end:

''Looking at it's current PS3 YTD sales at 1.5 million higher than last year(when it did over 12 million in the total year), and with GT5 probably launching in December i think it's save to say that PS3 will be atleast at 45 million at the end of year(wich means 13 million for 2010). Then next year we are likely to see some sort of price cut, and with a healthy amount of exclusive titles coming up and better Move software support sales should increase even further next year. Looking at next 3 years in total(2011-2013) i think we should probably see 2 price cuts, with the price of the PS3 being at $199 in 2013 at the latest. Considering this i see it likely for the PS3 to sale atleast 40 million in those three years, maybe even more if a $199 price point gives it a big boost.

This means that the PS3 would be over 85 million at the end of 2013, 7 years in it's life cycle. It should then easily do 5 million a year after that, because the PS2 did over 10 million in it's 8th year. Also the PS2 is now in it's 10th(10 and a half in Japan) and will probably keep on selling for a few more years, meaning that PS3 could have an lyfe cycle of more than 10 years. This way passing the 100 million actually seem very likely to me.''

Now for the Wii, let us be honest here. Software support is dying of fast, with 3th party's showing little interest anymore, and so are the number of possible titles Nintendo is/or could be releasing in the future. The only really big title we have coming up after this year is the new Zelda, i really can't think of any other game that's going to breath new life into the console, with the Wii game line already being almost used up as well(Wii Sports, Sports resort, Party etc.).

Considering this i can see it very likely for Nintendo to announce a Wii successor in 2013, maybe even releasing the same year or early 2014 at the latest. Although sales are slowing down fast, let's say Wii will be at 100 million by that time. But then there's a problem, will it sale much more after that? I say no for the following reasons:

Looking at Nintendo's strategy they will probably release their next system at a affordable price point, making it possible for alot of people to afford one at launch. This will kill off alot of interest in the Wii. But more importantly though, the Wii already is an outdated console hardwarewise compared to it's competition. This will make it almost impossible to have even near a 10 year life cycle, definitely with software support already being low.

So this then becomes the situation: PS3 eventually getting at 100 million with potential to sell even more, and Wii getting at 100 million much earlier, but with a very doubtfull future to say the least. So like i said, that's a small chance right there.

I am a fanboy, and I find this funny, I mean you can be a fanboy but have some common sense, even if Wii stops selling, how much time does it take the PS3 to just get wii numbers now? almost 4 years at the rate it is selling

No. Fanboy is an insult to say someone is an irrational fan who discards sense and logic to defend their console.

This is just my opinion passed off as a sales prediction thread.

It is possible that it may or may not happen. But  the evidence of the sales over the next 4 or 5 years will show the PS3 fights back and reduces the sales gaps on the Wii. PS3 may get very close to the Wii's sales total in the end.

The PS3 will sell at a faster rate than the Wii in the next 5 years. The PS3 sales will increase as it approaches the $199 mark within two or three years time. Expect $249 price point in 2011 and $199 price point in 2012 or 2013. But a price drop from $299 to $199 in 2011 is a remote possibility

PS3 reduced its sales price 15 months ago from $399 down to $299: 25% reduction in price. PS3 has experienced an  increase in sales in year on year sales from 2009 to 2010.  It is unlikely the PS3 would reduce the price from $299 down to $199 a 33% price reduction in 2011. A price reduction from $299 to $249: a 17% price reduction is more likely in 2011, followed by another $50 price reduction in 2012.

Dropping sales price dramatically reduces revenue and has an adverse impact on profitability. The unit costs would have to reduce by more than the sales price reduction to make the price cut worthwhile. 

Wii reduced its price 12 months ago from $249 down to $199: a 20% reduction in price. Wii sales peaked at Xmas but in 2010 the sales have slowed down on year on year sales.

Both Wii and PS3 will sell over 100 million console systems this generation. I stand by this prediction. X360, I have no idea how much it will sell life time: maybe 65 to 70 million sales ltd. 

You say the PS3 won't have a 10 year lifecycle, and yet you mentioned how the PS1 kept on chugging. So where were PS1 sales at August, 1998, nearly 4 years into its lifecycle? 40 million... 40 million shipments.

And yet Sony kept the PS1 in production until March 23, 2006. The same year it launched the PS3. Because it just kept on selling.

There is no proof the PS3 will suddenly lose steam and fall into irrelevance in 2 years. None whatsoever. $300 minimum is still a huge barrier to entry and we have no idea how the console will do at $200.

No it won't. The PS3 will top out at 100 million MAX (even that seems like a stretch). It has zero chance of beating the Wii.