PS3 can still finish in first place.

[dtewi]

AnthonyW86 said:

To bad a lot of people are just screaming and laughing at this without breaking down any real expectations. First of all i have already stated in a thread that i think there really is a very slight chance of the PS3 eventialy outselling the Wii, although by that time there probably won't be much software support. First let me quote myself about the PS3, where as i truly believe it very likely to pass 100 million in the end:

''Looking at it's current PS3 YTD sales at 1.5 million higher than last year(when it did over 12 million in the total year), and with GT5 probably launching in December i think it's save to say that PS3 will be atleast at 45 million at the end of year(wich means 13 million for 2010). Then next year we are likely to see some sort of price cut, and with a healthy amount of exclusive titles coming up and better Move software support sales should increase even further next year. Looking at next 3 years in total(2011-2013) i think we should probably see 2 price cuts, with the price of the PS3 being at $199 in 2013 at the latest. Considering this i see it likely for the PS3 to sale atleast 40 million in those three years, maybe even more if a $199 price point gives it a big boost.

Wrong sir. Wrong. GT5 won't bolster sales for a sustained period. A two week, or maybe three week, increase, and that's it. No one game has EVER boosted sales for a long time, not even Halo. Next year will NOT be as good as this year. PS3 has already reached mass-market appeal with its $299 price, and a $249 price would do relatively nothing in the long-term! It's the no man's land between what is generally accepted as "mass-market" price ($199) and the price that doesn't frighten people away from buying it ($299). In other words, it does nothing. And you are not even entertaining the idea that Sony would like to make a profit! PROFIT. A $199 PS3 isn't profitable and they wouldn't dare to do that soon. Then we have Move. Ah yes, Move. It has boosted sales now, but its sales are NOT going to remain at the level its at now. I don't see why you would think that. The sales are going to stabilize at a lower level, how much I cannot be sure, but it definitely won't stay as high as it is now.

This means that the PS3 would be over 85 million at the end of 2013, 7 years in it's life cycle. It should then easily do 5 million a year after that, because the PS2 did over 10 million in it's 8th year. Also the PS2 is now in it's 10th(10 and a half in Japan) and will probably keep on selling for a few more years, meaning that PS3 could have an lyfe cycle of more than 10 years. This way passing the 100 million actually seem very likely to me.''

WRONG. The PS3 will not have a life cycle of 10 years. Mr. Khan very eloquently stated why and I see no point in reiterating it. But let me say this: the PS3 is no PS2. The PS3 will never, ever sell like the PS2. It won't have nearly as long a life cycle, and sales for the PS3 will plummet in 2012 with the release of the PS4. Yes, the PS4 is going to be releasing in the next few years. Rejecting that notion is ludicrous to the point of insanity.

Now for the Wii, let us be honest here. Software support is dying of fast, with 3th party's showing little interest anymore, and so are the number of possible titles Nintendo is/or could be releasing in the future. The only really big title we have coming up after this year is the new Zelda, i really can't think of any other game that's going to breath new life into the console, with the Wii game line already being almost used up as well(Wii Sports, Sports resort, Party etc.).

The ONLY title is Zelda? You just shot yourself in the foot with that statement. Donkey Kong. Epic Mickey. These have chances to boost sales as well. I don't think you ignored them, but casually overlooked the idea that Wii could have software so you didn't bother to even check! Yet I am not entertaining the notion that any of these games could bring Wii's former fervor back. I think they won't do one thing at all.

Considering this i can see it very likely for Nintendo to announce a Wii successor in 2013, maybe even releasing the same year or early 2014 at the latest. Although sales are slowing down fast, let's say Wii will be at 100 million by that time. But then there's a problem, will it sale much more after that? I say no for the following reasons:

Wrong wrong wrong wrong. Ninty would rather swallow acid than not release a new console when theirs is dying. The generation will end in a couple or a few years (again, reference Mr. Khan's post).

Looking at Nintendo's strategy they will probably release their next system at a affordable price point, making it possible for alot of people to afford one at launch. This will kill off alot of interest in the Wii. But more importantly though, the Wii already is an outdated console hardwarewise compared to it's competition. This will make it almost impossible to have even near a 10 year life cycle, definitely with software support already being low.

Are you determinedly ignoring the PS2? The PS2 was an affordable price, yet the PS1 still kept on chugging. Why? Because it was CHEAPER and people STILL WANTED it. The Wii will be much cheaper than the Super Wii, and people would still want to buy it. And don't bring up hardware comparisons. I will laugh scornfully at you if you think that is a valid reason for anything.

So this then becomes the situation: PS3 eventually getting at 100 million with potential to sell even more, and Wii getting at 100 million much earlier, but with a very doubtfull future to say the least. So like i said, that's a small chance right there.