I wonder if people mocking the TC actually fully read his argument?
He is not talking about which console will have the highest LTD shipments in 2 years, or 4 years. Rather he thinks the PS3 may have the highest LTD shipments by 2016, or more appropriately by the time it stops production.
Yes, it can happen. It can happen quite simply, and that is by 1) Nintendo ending Wii production long before the PS3 stops production, 2) the Wii continuing to experience a very strong downturn over the next couple of years.
If the PS3 is a 'late-bloomer' console (only putting up high shipments numbers after being price cut down to $299), and the Wii is an 'early-bloomer' console, it is not beyond the realm of possibility for PS3 to make up the large gap established earlier this gen.
It has lots of room for further growth through price cuts. More than either of the other two systems.
Then if you factor in Sony's strong presence in developing and emerging markets, such as Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, I'd be certain that the PS3 will still be on the market in 5 more years and Sony will be pushing the system aggressively in those places. Nintendo doesn't have an official presence in most of these areas, and if they don't establish one, it will hurt the Wii's longevity.
I'm not saying I expect the PS3 will pass the Wii. I don't. But people looking at when the next generation begins are missing the argument. The battle continues long after that. Just look at the shipment numbers the PS2 put up against the Wii last quarter. Think of how long it took the PS1 to reach 100 million units (answer: 9 and a half years).
