I would expect Nintendo to release before Holiday 2012, but I doubt it would be a 2011 release ...

While it has become less and less common in the videogame industry to release systems outside of the holiday buying season, there is no reason why Nintendo couldn't release a system at the end of Q2/beginning of Q3 in 2012. In fact, I believe there are advantages to a mid year release; first off, the you're (probably) going to sell out your initial shipment regardless of when it is released, (if your system is popular enough) you will likely have supply issues for the first few months, and most "First Holiday Seasons" are wasted because you simply don't have the supply to actually see a "boost" from them.

Hypothetically speaking, if you launched mid 2012 and your competition launched holiday 2013 your 18 month lead could translate into a 20 to 30 Million unit lead; and developers would be releasing second generation titles against launch titles of your competition. When you add in that you could be seeing manufacturing cost reductions while your competition is at full price, and you could start marketing discount games when your competition doesn't have a library yet, it is a massive advantage.

Given 3DS is launching outside the holiday, I don't see why anyone thinks Wii 2 can't as well?  Q1 2012 at the absolute latest imo, it's going to launch next fiscal year for sure.

It could also be that Nintendo will hold out for an economic recovery, when people would be more readily willing to buy another luxury item like a gaming console. The Wii released in 2006, before the economy was utterly destroyed. Launching a console now would definitely see a lower adoption rate.

Then... why aren't they waiting for 3DS?

We will learn the answer at E3 in 2012.

Because that would be when Nintendo would tell everyone it has a new console to be released.

My guess though is that it will (a) launch in a holiday window and (b) be in sufficient supply to sell.

Mike from Morgantown

It's possible we could get a leak earlier, given how Nintendo's planning to court 3rd parties early on.  That's what happened with 3DS, Nintendo went to 3rd parties early, press leaks were starting and to "get ahead" of the story Nintendo made the 3DS announcement (but not reveal) in their March financials rather than wait for E3 2010.

True. And that is probably how it will be. But the leaks will raise questions which will be answered at E3.  

So we are both right. 8*>

2001 Gameboy Advance and Gamecube
2006, DS Lite and Wii.

Just because Nintendo hasn't yet spoken about the console, does not mean it cannot be released 13 months from now. I do think we will hear something about at GDC, and see something at E3.

So, it is 2007, I mean, 2008,no, 2009, oops, 2010 and people are still claiming about the new Nintendo console. Why don't people ever talk about the Xbox360 sucessor, or the PS3's?

So Sony doesnt beat them to the 3d market?