Hard to say. 2011 will be the year the new Zelda hits the Wii, so it wont be 2011. Starfox has yet to hit the Wii, so they may use that to fuel through 2012.

The Wii came out in 2006, so 2012 would be a 6 year lifespan. The GameCube came out in 2001. with a 5 year lifespan (and much less success in the market than the Wii). The N64 came out in 1996, with a 5 year span, also falling beind the PS One. The Snes released in 1991, had great success and a 5 year span.

So, signs would say that Nintendo is comfortable with a 5 year span for its consoles, but no news this E3 for a new home console, which means that no 2011 - 5 years from the release. Will they push BEYOND 6? I cant see them doing that, when everyone is pushing for HD now more than ever.

The question we must ask is - will they try and wait until 3d TV tech is mastered to the point the screen works like the 3DS - interpreting the 3d graphics without a need for glasses? And how long will that process take?

@Mr.Metralha:

2001... They launched the GBA and the Gamecube that year.  But I do agree that 2011 is not likely for Wii's successor; my guess is holiday 2012.  However...

@Pavolink:

I doubt we'll see 720 or the PS4 that early.  Sony and Microsoft are both watching each other, and each knows that the other is no hurry to release a new console.  Microsoft and especially Sony both want their respective consoles to sell a lot more than they have so far, and they will do just that once 360 hits $99 and PS3 hits $199.

I'd say 2013 for X720 and PS4.

I reckon Nintendo will wait until 2012, give at least 1 year separation from the 3DS release in 2011.

I guess the question is wheather Microsoft will launch a new console in 2011, to be honest I doubt it since as they've invested so frigging much into kinect, as for Sony, they'll simply want to rake in as much money from the PS3 and move before doing anything, also they'll probably release the PSP2 in 2011 as well.

I think Nintendo will launch the 'super wii' or whatever it is called in the first half of 2012.  I don't think MS or Sony plan to release platforms before late 2013, but Nintendo will force their hand slightly.

I expect the 'super wii' to be roughly 2.5x as powerful as the PS3, use a proprietary format based of HD-DVD or maybe Blu-ray for games, can output 1080p and will have good 3rd party support (maybe 1/2 what the 3DS is getting)

Hmm depending on Wii performance in 2011 it will be Christmas 2011 or Spring 2012 imho.

Thats a hard one, I was thinking about it and Nintendo might not want to launch too early compared to competitors. Sure if they launch in 2012 and PS4/720 launch in 2014, they get a two year head start but then again they won't have anything to prevent MS and Sony from killing them off.

Think about DreamCast for example it launched prior to PS2 and when X-Box and Nintendo came along they were dead. Now sure Nintendo if they really supply the thing could get in a good 30-million units by 2014. But could they maintain that momentum when the competition would probubly offer all the same services (Copying anything Nintendo does) with better visuals and a competitive price tag.

But yes I do think Nintendo will announce the next console in 2011 and release it in 2012. I have always believed the console would be revealed at E3 2011 and I stand by that prediction. Depending on sales of the Wii the launch window may be spring 2012 or winter (Nov) 2012. But either way I think its impossible for Nintendo to try and make the Wii live another 5 years like Sony and MS are claiming theirs will.

Infact if Kinect is as big as Microsoft hopes and Move fails to maintain high numbers next year I bet Sony will also unviel their console at E3 2011 or 12. I don't think that Sony can maintain the momentum it has right now another 5 years. Both Nintendo and Sony have consoles nearing completion and the second they think its in their interest to launch they will.

If Nintendo releases a new home console on November 2012 and the 3DS is coming out in March 2011. That makes that 20 months apart from releases. The Nintendo DS and the Wii had a 2 year gap from releases. I guess thats possible, I guess we'll see when the time is right.

Nintendo will release it's console in xmas 2012 and the others will in 2013 as that will give them time to copy whatever Nintendo is doing unless they were actually planing to do whatever Nintendo was going to do 20 years before :P

this is only natural!

I think if they decide to launch a new console in 2012, they should hold off the new Zelda for the new console.  Skyward sword won't have a big impact on Wii sales and would be considered a last gasp for a fading console.  I think if they used it as a launch title (along with a new Mario) for the "Super Wii", it would drive a lot more console sales.

I'd be willing to wait for it!

I dont think so. Skyward Sword would be release before the next E3. Or a month later. If they hold the new Zelda for the next console then they're killing to much potencial Wii sales. D: