I approve THQ's opinion. I don't want to see a new console out of Sony for at least another 5 years, which means I hope there's not another console from MS for at least another 5 years.

I think Wii needs to go HD and I think the Wii2 competing with PS3 and 360 can be a viable situation. It can have somewhat better specs than PS3/360 and launch for a tad higher price than PS3 and 360 are currently.

Wii has a solid enough fan base that there will be a pretty good and quick uptake of an HD Wii2 and it will get 3rd party support. But I don't think it'll take all the oxygen from PS3 or 360 because those units will always be able to sell at a lower price.

Why you gotta hate? I mean, Sony and MS might not make games you like, but to want them to leave the console business altogether s a bit rough

Everyone is saying Nintendo needs to rush out a Wii HD as if Wii has lost this gen. If anything, MS and Sony are the ones that need new consoles. And no, Kinect, and especially Move, will not be enough to keep them going, especially not for another 5 years.

A Wii HD or "Super Wii" would be a disasterous business move for Nintendo. If they go that route, they will fail. It would be conceding to the already red ocean market that is in major decline. If Nintendo does release a new console (which doesn't have to happen for at least 2 years as long as Nintendo reinvigorates the Wii software market with the types of games that made it successful in the first place,) it needs to be a console that is as little like MS and Sony's as possible. It needs to be disruptive and reach another blue ocean of non gamers. It at least needs to have its own unique selling point, like the 3DS.

so I'm guessing THQ aren't going to support the 3DS too well?

Also, banking on Kinect and Move to carry the consoles further at all, let alone for 5 years, is a bad idea. They are console addons, and if we have learned anything from gaming history it's that addons do not help consoles. In fact, they can often have the opposite effect. I don't see the potential in these motion addons most people on this site seem to predict. The Move is merely a Wiimote that is attempting to mainly draw in the hardcore gamer, which is obviously missing the point of the Wii's success. And the Kinect is trying to go for the so called casuals, but MS seems to be missing the point as well by assuming that the casuals will only play fitness games and mini games. The Wii third parties learned about this casual gamer myth the hard way.

The HD consoles could last 5 more years, but that will depend heavilly on if the first and third parties can keep pumping out several quality games that people will want for another 5 years. That remains to be seen. The motion addons will have little influence. They are just tools to PLAY the games.

He's right from a developer perspective, but unless Move and Kinect reverse the trends around SW purchasing  noted by The Source, and unless Nintendo find a way to stop the Wii's declining sales, then there is going to be pressure to get new consoles out.

But... clearly development costs on PS3/360 are still steep for many developers, and while it's declining the Wii has nonetheless sold bucketloads with far less horepower than the HD twins, showing that the average consumer (if I may use that phrase) simply isn't hugely graphics/spec driven.

So... I suspect new consoles to arrive sooner than perhaps THQ would prefer, but I expect them to be less of a jump than say PS2 to PS3 and I expect a lot of focus on strong SDK development tools to really aid in lowering the cost of development for high end games.

I also expect them to build and expand on Move/Kinect/Wiimote and I expect to see existing consoles remain on the market similar to the PS2 to PS3.

I don't think we're going to have that long a wait. We'll probably not see a new console until 2012 from either one or both these two makers. However if we go by your personal adoption last year, 3 years into the current generation that would actually be right on time for you. It is common for people here to confuse their own timing in purchasing a new console device with when they want the generation to start. The console had to have been going for 2-3 years (NZ vs U.S. release etc) before you were ready to buy because of the maturation of software and hardware which made it compelling.

From Microsoft and Sony's perspective, they'll want a new console to counter the overall market declines sometime over the next 12-36 months. Having value orientated previous generation hardware on the market saves them from needing to cater to as wide a market with the one device so these current consoles are extremely valuable to executing well in the next generation. For instance:

• Microsoft executes in 2012 with advanced hardware etc, releases just the Elite SKU, keeps Kinect Arcades on market with 8GB of flash for $199. They then keep the launch price for the Elite SKU at $399.
• 2013 Microsoft releases Arcade next generation at $299, keeps Elite price the same and cuts the price of Kinect Arcades to $169 and the price of non Kinect Arcades to $129
• 2014 etc.

Thats just one possibility.

Anyway as for the Wii 2? Well I cannot say at this point. I would suggest that a $299 launch price is a given especially as the Wii was sold at an extreme retail markup for those prices for over two years in the U.S. anyway. However being completely new hardware it could take steam out of the sales of both the 360 and PS3 on the market. There are always early adopters who want the next big thing, so there are always compelling first mover advantages when coming into a new generation so long as your whole product offering is sound. The real question is whether Nintendo will be able to please the core of the Xbox 360 / PS3 whilst at the same time keeping their product relevant for their current Wii user base or if they are simply content to go after their own market. Given the 3DS I believe they possibly will try to go more mainstream in order to have a more healthy software ecosystem. Having too few core/hardcore users makes the system very hit driven and difficult for 3rd parties.

I agree.Soon we'll reach a threshold in graphics and have console updates once every 20 years

Honestly i wouldn't be surprised to see new consoles announced in 2012, or 2013 at the latest.

As for what new consoles could offer user's i would expect things like the Wii to go HD while the 360 and PS3 get additional RAM (at least 8x the RAM or 4gb minimum), faster disk reads - think 12x faster for PS3 (24x blu-ray drive), refined OS and features out of box (all games supporting motion controls / cross game voice chat, etc).

 Overall i would expect the next-gen of consoles to aim to provide consumers with just enough reasons to shell out $299 or $399 for the new box. While SONY and Microsoft break-even or even profit on hardware as we have really reached the point where the power race has reached the end of the line and nobody is going to care which console "look better" when 99% of the game is identical.

This has been the position i've held, that for Sony and Microsoft, the next hardware jump is going to be more about optimization than raw power. I mean, we still haven't really seen 1080p consistent 60fps, and now we're not likely to if they instead start chasing the dragon that is 3D at a higher resolution with a decent framerate.

Sony and Microsoft move up to a more stable, optimized level, and Nintendo takes a big jump, but into the same ballpark technically. Everyone's seen the devastation that having an odd-man-out technically has dealt to the third party environment, and there's going to be strong inline pressure

Nobody gets past 2013 at the absolute latest. My updated prediction is N6 in Spring 2012, Nextbox/PS4 holiday 2012 with PS4 maybe slipping into Q1 2013