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Forums - Sales - Will Nintendo break 100 million

CrashDestroyer on 24 October 2010

I believe it will go far past 100 million.



"To play or not to play, that is the question."- A wise man

 

Lifetime sales prediction

Wii 79/150 million

Xbox 360 47.7/73 Million

PS3 43.6/69 Million

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*Sound Of Rain on 24 October 2010
Kantor said:
*Sound Of Rain said:
CGI-Quality said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

D.K.C.R is set to be the biggest non bundled system mover of the year!(Beating out G.T.5 and Halo Reach)

I highly doubt that.

Not counting any of the Reach or G.T.5 bundles and only counting what was pushed without them...D.K.C.R will push more.

Hang on, you're planning on measuring the effect of a game on hardware without including that game's bundles?

If you want to buy X console for Y game, and Y game comes with a certain bundle for X console, you're going to buy the bundle. You would have to be quite extraordinarily stupid to buy the console and game separately.

Ha ha...I was thinking of something completely different Lol...yeah anyway D.K.C.R will push more systems than H.R and G.T.5.



jarrod on 25 October 2010
CGI-Quality said:

People are reasonable in their predictions about the Wii. Why would it suddenly explode? I mean, it'll have some good software for the holidays, but system pushers? At the end of 06, 07, 08, and '09, there were system movers for the Wii. 2010 looks to not have that.

In fairness, what "system movers" did PS2 have yet in 2004 and later?  I'm not entirely sure "system movers" alone are what continually moved Wii, at least not "new" ones.  

I generally agree though, the only real big "new" release I can see really giving a significant installed base push is probably DQX, and that's (1) localized to Japan only and (2) not coming this year.  Still, I think stuff like NSMB or WSR is still going to move lots of Wiis this holiday.  Hell, just the Red Wii bundle is probably going to move crazy amounts of systems.



Seece on 25 October 2010
cory.ok said:

for nintendo to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2011, they have to start selling about 420,000 units weekly

to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2012, they have to sell about 225,000 units weekly

if wiis hardware sales stay pretty close to constant they will reach 100m sales in about april of 2013

i dont think wii sales will stay constant, they'll continue their decline a bit after a new years sales increase.  i doubt it'll get to 100m

Except sales don't work like that ....... despite it's low 130k/150k's over the last few months, it'll actually average 350k/400k a week sales this year.

By the end of this year it'll be 85 mill. It's not going to drop from 18 mill this year to sub 10 mill next year, not gonna happen, it'll have a price cut next year as well. So 95 mill by end of 2011 is a lock. So that leaves 5 mill, will do it by mid 2012 at the latest.



 

Nintendogamer on 25 October 2010
Seece said:
cory.ok said:

for nintendo to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2011, they have to start selling about 420,000 units weekly

to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2012, they have to sell about 225,000 units weekly

if wiis hardware sales stay pretty close to constant they will reach 100m sales in about april of 2013

i dont think wii sales will stay constant, they'll continue their decline a bit after a new years sales increase.  i doubt it'll get to 100m

Except sales don't work like that ....... despite it's low 130k/150k's over the last few months, it'll actually average 350k/400k a week sales this year.

By the end of this year it'll be 85 mill. It's not going to drop from 18 mill this year to sub 10 mill next year, not gonna happen, it'll have a price cut next year as well. So 95 mill by end of 2011 is a lock. So that leaves 5 mill, will do it by mid 2012 at the latest.

85M shipped? I think so, also I thought wii would do 18M this year but Wagram said it wont sell another 9M this year. In  the 2010 Yoy article you have Wii over 10M whilst VGchartz has it at 9M, why the difference? unless your counting the last week of December 2009.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

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Seece on 25 October 2010
Nintendogamer said:
Seece said:
cory.ok said:

for nintendo to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2011, they have to start selling about 420,000 units weekly

to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2012, they have to sell about 225,000 units weekly

if wiis hardware sales stay pretty close to constant they will reach 100m sales in about april of 2013

i dont think wii sales will stay constant, they'll continue their decline a bit after a new years sales increase.  i doubt it'll get to 100m

Except sales don't work like that ....... despite it's low 130k/150k's over the last few months, it'll actually average 350k/400k a week sales this year.

By the end of this year it'll be 85 mill. It's not going to drop from 18 mill this year to sub 10 mill next year, not gonna happen, it'll have a price cut next year as well. So 95 mill by end of 2011 is a lock. So that leaves 5 mill, will do it by mid 2012 at the latest.

85M shipped? I think so, also I thought wii would do 18M this year but Wagram said it wont sell another 9M this year. In  the 2010 Yoy article you have Wii over 10M whilst VGchartz has it at 9M, why the difference? unless your counting the last week of December 2009.

Exactly the reason. 85 mill shipped seems the target, probably 82.5 mill sold, won't sell 9 millon this holiday.



 

Nintendogamer on 25 October 2010
Seece said:
Nintendogamer said:
Seece said:
cory.ok said:

for nintendo to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2011, they have to start selling about 420,000 units weekly

to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2012, they have to sell about 225,000 units weekly

if wiis hardware sales stay pretty close to constant they will reach 100m sales in about april of 2013

i dont think wii sales will stay constant, they'll continue their decline a bit after a new years sales increase.  i doubt it'll get to 100m

Except sales don't work like that ....... despite it's low 130k/150k's over the last few months, it'll actually average 350k/400k a week sales this year.

By the end of this year it'll be 85 mill. It's not going to drop from 18 mill this year to sub 10 mill next year, not gonna happen, it'll have a price cut next year as well. So 95 mill by end of 2011 is a lock. So that leaves 5 mill, will do it by mid 2012 at the latest.

85M shipped? I think so, also I thought wii would do 18M this year but Wagram said it wont sell another 9M this year. In  the 2010 Yoy article you have Wii over 10M whilst VGchartz has it at 9M, why the difference? unless your counting the last week of December 2009.

Exactly the reason. 85 mill shipped seems the target, probably 82.5 mill sold, won't sell 9 millon this holiday.


usually theres about 1.8M difference between sold and shipped, that right?  it will most likely sell 6.9M rather than 9M.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Seece on 25 October 2010
Nintendogamer said:
Seece said:

Exactly the reason. 85 mill shipped seems the target, probably 82.5 mill sold, won't sell 9 millon this holiday.


usually theres about 1.8M difference between sold and shipped, that right?  it will most likely sell 6.9M rather than 9M.

From now until the end of the year, tbh 6.9 is looking optimistic too. But it's unpredictable, so I put sold anywhere from 80 - 82.5 mill end of year.

I don't want to be pessimistic about Wii sales, like everyone else, because I'm a bit like psrock, in regards that it's unfathomable Wii can do similar to HD consoles over xmas. Logically though .. Wii could very well do 5.5 mill from now till end of year.



 

*Sound Of Rain on 25 October 2010
CGI-Quality said:
*Sound Of Rain said:
Kantor said:
*Sound Of Rain said:
CGI-Quality said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

D.K.C.R is set to be the biggest non bundled system mover of the year!(Beating out G.T.5 and Halo Reach)

I highly doubt that.

Not counting any of the Reach or G.T.5 bundles and only counting what was pushed without them...D.K.C.R will push more.

Hang on, you're planning on measuring the effect of a game on hardware without including that game's bundles?

If you want to buy X console for Y game, and Y game comes with a certain bundle for X console, you're going to buy the bundle. You would have to be quite extraordinarily stupid to buy the console and game separately.

Ha ha...I was thinking of something completely different Lol...yeah anyway D.K.C.R will push more systems than H.R and G.T.5.

And again, I highly doubt that.

Its your opinion but we will see come November 2010.



saicho on 25 October 2010
Seece said:
cory.ok said:

for nintendo to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2011, they have to start selling about 420,000 units weekly

to get up to 100m wii's sold by december 2012, they have to sell about 225,000 units weekly

if wiis hardware sales stay pretty close to constant they will reach 100m sales in about april of 2013

i dont think wii sales will stay constant, they'll continue their decline a bit after a new years sales increase.  i doubt it'll get to 100m

Except sales don't work like that ....... despite it's low 130k/150k's over the last few months, it'll actually average 350k/400k a week sales this year.

By the end of this year it'll be 85 mill. It's not going to drop from 18 mill this year to sub 10 mill next year, not gonna happen, it'll have a price cut next year as well. So 95 mill by end of 2011 is a lock. So that leaves 5 mill, will do it by mid 2012 at the latest.

From 18 million this mllion this year to only 10 million next year would be a pretty big disaster for Nintendo. That's almost 45% drop.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.