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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo doesn't give a 5|-|!t about the Wii

When the new "wii 2" comes out in 2012, there will be at least one or two major big releases in the winter holiday season of 2011. Ninty has a lot of franchises like wave race, pikmin, fzero, starfox. luigi's manson and many more we didn't see one single release this gen. Further if you look at this years e3 nearly all of this years holiday titels were first announced at this years e3 - like kirby, dk, goldeneye. If Ninty announces a game it normaly releases in the next 6-12 month and not like the other two big (Ms and Sony) in the next 2-3 years. So i think whether or not nintendo leaves the wii alone in the dust, you can say for sure after next years e3.



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It's not about not caring, it's about the internal development cycle at Nintendo. Of course they're going to be focusing on their new portable launching early next year. Look at the DS for example for the past two years, not a whole lot that has come from Nintendo but the system has had a great library to choose from due to third party support which meant that we didn't see these accusations. Had Wii followed the DS model perfectly, we'd have quite a large amount of third party support right now and people wouldn't notice the lack of Nintendo support coming next year.

That's not to say they have nothing on the way with Mario Sports Mix, Zelda: Skyward Sword, Wii Relax, Pikmin 3 and Miyamoto's new IP (he mentioned launching a new IP for Wii next year) all looking to arrive in 2011.



 

2011 - 2012 isn't really that dire for Wii, particularly for a system in year three and four of its decline phase. Seriously - Wii is still beating PS3 / X360 individually this year and they're peaking while Wii is already nearly 9m off its best pace. Given how much lower the X360 / PS3 sw & hw peaks were vs. Wii, you'd expect them to decline more quickly, as even when seen as a combined market development costs mean the number of profitable games is about equal to Wii...the difference is X360 / PS3 aren't the same thing - one will fall quicker than the other - and that erode the HD market quickly.

The third party market is still set to be 75m-90m units on Wii this fiscal year now that Nintendo's top game output is slowing to 30-40% of sales for non-bundled games (still about 50% overall with bundles). As long as the third party market is above 30m units or so Wii won't collapse, and so we're anywhere from two to four years from Wii hardware falling off a cliff, as even with 20-40% declines (and Nintendo only expects a 25% decline this year for sw). Wii isn't N64 or GC or even SNES - companies are going to keep supporting Wii fairly well for at least seven Christmas seasons, as opposed to N64 which was pretty much over after Christmas five, or GC which was all but done after Christmas four. Third party market has gone something like this on Wii:

FY 3/2007 - 12m or so

FY 3/2008 - 55m or so

FY 3/2009 - 100m or so

FY 3/2010 - 95m or so

FY 3/2011 - 82m or so

FY 3/2012 Est - 60m ?

FY 3/2013 Est - 35m ?

FY 3/2014 Est - 20m ?

For the west I figure the plan is something like this:

New Games in 2011-2012:

Pikmin 3, Mario Sports Mix, Mario & Sonic next, The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Dragon Quest X, Wii Relax, music, party, sports, dancing filler, couple core third party things, bring over some Japanese stuff.

Sales Pushes:

Price Cut to $150

Player's Choice for the 90 or however many games to top 1m on Wii

Lower third party royalties slightly

Continue riding evergreens (Just Dance 2, NSMB Wii, DKC, Wii Party, WSR, WF Mario Kart, and a couple others will continue performing well into 2011 and beyond)

In Japan over the next two years, its more like:

Pikmin, Zelda, Last Story, Wii Relax, Rhythm Heaven Wii, Dragon Quest X, other random projects / third party games

Continue riding ever greens (Wii Party, MK Wii, NSMB Wii, WSR, WF , DKC, etc)

Player's Choice

Lower third party royalties slightly.

Price Cut: April 2011, probably again in 2012

Moreover, towards the end of their lives, as still fairly big markets, the Wii and DS will be very profitable because of how little Nintendo will have to do - combine that with 3DS and the Super Wii launch in late 2012 and Nintendo is in a pretty strong launch and strategic position given that third party support should improve as GBA --> DS was a 400m unit benefit for third parties, while GC ---> Wii was a similar 400m - 600m improvement for third parties as a market.



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Nintendo is giving too much attention to 3DS, it can't be that good surley.



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Mr.Metralha said:
TheSource said:

Wii is trending to be a much larger software market than DS, even if you exclude bundled software its ahead by 15% over the same period. So Nintendo cares - they like $$ - and DS is already a 750 million unit * $30 (or so) software market over six years. I'm thinking DS gets to 900m-1.05b games shipped, while Wii gets to 1b to 1.2b games shipped. You can say that PS2 got to 1.55b or so, but Sony never had two sw markets of a billion units each overlapping in the way Nintendo does / has recently.

You're ignoring the fact that the Wii will most probably decline at a faster rate than usual for consoles.

 


1) read the name of the person to whom you are responding, and if you absolutely must disagree with theSource, please please please have something to back up your point.

3) The Wii still has Zelda and Dragon Quest, infact, even only including announced games, the Wii has about as many big games coming up as the PS2 did after the same time in its life.

4) Yes, the Wii will likely be replaced in 2012, so will the 360 and more than likely the PS3 too, although that may see a delay to Q1 2013. 

5) recently the PS360 have seen a variety of things that temporarily increase sales, such as price cuts, new models and large degrees of bundling. 

 

Edit - point two removed, see Nordlead's below re swearing



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Yeah, this year has been a bit poor, we've only had Super Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid Other M, Kirby, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Goldeneye, Mario Allstars and Wii Party. That was sarcasm by the way.

For about the first 2 months in FOREVER the Wii hasn't been on top, mainly because it needs a price cut, and now it's the end of the world? Get real! 



Nintendo's own lineup is fine, great even... the problem (as ever) is with 3rd parties.

Also, DQX will be the "last Wii hit", not Zelda SS. :P



I'm concerned that nintendo doesn't seem to be taking their motion controls seriously.

We have the sports games, and that's all fine, but other than the new Zelda, they haven't delivered on the promises of the Wii.

However, they revitalized the 2D platformer genre, and for that, I am eternally grateful.



I LOVE ICELAND!

jarrod said:

Nintendo's own lineup is fine, great even... the problem (as ever) is with 3rd parties.

Also, DQX will be the "last Wii hit", not Zelda SS. :P

This year has seen some great third party games - Red Steel 2, Monster Hunter Tri, Tatsunoko vs. Capcom have all been great. There's still Goldeneye, COD:BO and Sonic Colours still to come.



And George Bush don't care about black people.  There.  I said it.