Depends on what you define close. 300-500k is still a lot.

Yeah i actully remembered the FF13 one this morning, because the FF13 sales on the PS3 have not out sold FF12's sales on the PS2, this also suggests that GT5 will not outsell GT4, the other games that were mentioned also support this argument.

however GT5 may well sell, 8.5mil or even 10mil, but imo the userbase will have to be a bit higher for this to happen. and yes even though GOW3 will outsell GOW2, it will be a shame if it cant outsell GOW1.

GT5 sales in Europe will be inflated with the bundle.  I expected the bundle would be more like the Halo Reach bundle with the consoles specially designed and with game included at a slight discount over purchasing separatly.  With GT5 in Europe at least the bundle is the game and console for 15 euros extra.  They are basically giving away GT5 with the PS3 so why not. Hell I am not a GT5 fan, but for just 15 euros extra I would pick up the bundle rather than the standalone PS3 if I was in the market for a PS3.

I still see 8.5 million. The thing is, a lot of these predicting factors don't always hold through. I mean Uncharted 2 sold very weel despite having only 200k pre-orders in Americas.

The way I see it is that PS3 has no good racing simulation exclusives yet, and the console is 4 years old. Motorstorm and Mod Nation Racers are fun, but their sales aren't that strong. This to me is going to be the deciding factor. Will GT5 sell well because it's essentially the only full proper racing sim on the console, or will it sell poorly because racing fans have dispersed onto other consoles?

The hardcore playstation audience is still there, so the game will still sell at least 5-6 million, but there is no longer the 100 million casual audience. I mean would Mario Kart sell 20 million units on a less favorable console? Looking in the past Mario Kart games have scaled directly with user-base, but this isn't Mario Kart.

Most PS3 exclusives do worse on the PS3 then they did on the PS2, the only exceptions are massivly bundled titles, or games that saw a complete overhaul (Killzone). I don't care that the PS2 Install base was over 3 times the size of PS3's, GT5 will still sell well, just not as well as it used to. The extra 90 million systems PS2 had definatly helped sales.

You never know though, GT5 is going to be bundled, and I honestly don't know for how long. If they bundle GT5 for only 15 euros more in a console, I see the game selling 10 million, but is that the only way Sony is going to see strong numbers?

I mean if everyone could get this:

GT5 will sell as well as other GT's. With a great EMEAA bundle (not blue), and some tv time on Top Gear, the game has a chance.

However on it's own, GT5 will never sell as well as prior GT games.

I also think GT5 will sell well, But I dont agree with the outragious sales some people claim here!!

Im thinking 4-6 million life-time

lol you really do have to learn to let people have their opinions on GT5 insted of jumping on them all the time CGI.

I agree, but that's our opinion again, I'd say same if we were talking about Halo, but if either of those games sold 4 - 6 million it'd still be a big success in a lot of people's eyes given they'd be among the best sellers of the generation still.

Fact 1: 4-6 million for GT5 = FAIL

LMAO the irony!!!!!

*Facepalm.

I fail to see the Irony??

Im betting you think itll sell over 10 million