NA Pre-Orders UP!!!! (Week ending 2nd Oct 2010)

[Michael-5]

A203D said:

Michael-5 said:

A203D said:

darthdevidem01 said:

A203D said:

Even though GT5 is definitly going to outsell Forza based on the pre-orders alone, its important to remember that GT5 is also competing with every GT that has come before it, and those are some very big shoes to fill...

Edit: oh and Godofwar3ever, it looks like GOW3 is about to sell 3mil, maybe this or next week, do you think it can reach 5mil. i'm really impressed with GOW3 so far, i think it can get to 4.5mil, perhaps being the best selling action game of the gen!

GT5 will outsell the last GT release on PS2  which was GT4.......why you ask?

- MGS4 did it (outsold MGS3)Heavily bundled with the last backward compatible PS3, and still half a million behind MGS1 and MGS2.

- FF13 did it (outsold FF12, that too within 6 months of launch) Did not outsell FFXII, even combined sales only just matched FFXII sales recently. On a single platform, FFXIII did not outsell FFXII.

- GOW3 did it (outsold GOW2 that too within 6 months of launch) God of War 2: 3.13 million, God of War 3: 2.98 million. Did not do it yet, but it will. Still I blaime this one on GoW2 being released on an obsolete console (was released on PS2 after PS3 was released). God of War 1 sold 3.74 million.

- DMC4 did it (outsold DMC3) DMC4 did not outsell DMC3 on a snigle platform. Just because combined 360 and PS3 sales did it, doesn't mean on the PS3 alone it would have. Only sold about 65% as well as DMC3 on a single platform.

Why won't GT5 do it?

EDIT: GOW3 hasn't done it....but it will by the end of the holidays!

This is actully a very logical argument, however none of those games had to sell 10mil copies, which even MW2 couldnt do, and Forza and other racers may have eaten some of GT's market in that time. either way i hope your right, and it far exceeds the previous installments. oh and i'm not sure if your a GOW3 fan, but i'm very impressed with the sales of that game, looks like it could be a 5mil seller.

As you see, most of those examples are invalid. Even then, best case GT5 can sell as well as the worst GT game before it (GT2), which only sold 9.37 million units. I predict 8.5 million sales, which is reasonable.

Yeah i actully remembered the FF13 one this morning, because the FF13 sales on the PS3 have not out sold FF12's sales on the PS2, this also suggests that GT5 will not outsell GT4, the other games that were mentioned also support this argument.

however GT5 may well sell, 8.5mil or even 10mil, but imo the userbase will have to be a bit higher for this to happen. and yes even though GOW3 will outsell GOW2, it will be a shame if it cant outsell GOW1.

I still see 8.5 million. The thing is, a lot of these predicting factors don't always hold through. I mean Uncharted 2 sold very weel despite having only 200k pre-orders in Americas.

The way I see it is that PS3 has no good racing simulation exclusives yet, and the console is 4 years old. Motorstorm and Mod Nation Racers are fun, but their sales aren't that strong. This to me is going to be the deciding factor. Will GT5 sell well because it's essentially the only full proper racing sim on the console, or will it sell poorly because racing fans have dispersed onto other consoles?

The hardcore playstation audience is still there, so the game will still sell at least 5-6 million, but there is no longer the 100 million casual audience. I mean would Mario Kart sell 20 million units on a less favorable console? Looking in the past Mario Kart games have scaled directly with user-base, but this isn't Mario Kart.

Most PS3 exclusives do worse on the PS3 then they did on the PS2, the only exceptions are massivly bundled titles, or games that saw a complete overhaul (Killzone). I don't care that the PS2 Install base was over 3 times the size of PS3's, GT5 will still sell well, just not as well as it used to. The extra 90 million systems PS2 had definatly helped sales.

You never know though, GT5 is going to be bundled, and I honestly don't know for how long. If they bundle GT5 for only 15 euros more in a console, I see the game selling 10 million, but is that the only way Sony is going to see strong numbers?

I mean if everyone could get this:

GT5 will sell as well as other GT's. With a great EMEAA bundle (not blue), and some tv time on Top Gear, the game has a chance.

However on it's own, GT5 will never sell as well as prior GT games.