It depends on how big the games will be. I honestly think Killzone 3 will move consoles. If Sony goes on full blast advertising on all their games and word of mouth gets around on how good the games are, then I believe many people will buy a PS3 for those games.
But Kinect is already surpassing my predictions, so I don't know.
It's possible.
| BHR-3 said:
I Believe That The PS3 Will Be The Number One Selling Consoles In 2011
TIPS Consoles sold each year by VGC Wii 2006 2.9 2007 16.4 2008 24.4 2009 21.8
360 2005 1.1 2006 6.7 2007 7.8 2008 11 2009 10.2
PS3 2006 1.2 2007 7.6 2008 9.7 2009 12.6
Consoles sold each year by company starting Jan-Dec Wii 2006 3.1 2007 17 2008 24.9 2009 22.5
360 2005 1.5 2006 8.8 2007 7.3 2008 10.8 2009 10.2
PS3 2006 1.7 2007 8.8 2008 10.7 2009 12.4
So far for 2010 VGC Wii 8.7 last year at this time 9.3 -600k 360 6.4 last year at this time 5.1 1.3M PS3 6.7 last year at this time 5.6 1.1M
So far for 2010 by company Wii 6.5 last year at this time 7.6 360 3 last year at this time 2.9 PS3 4.6 last year at this time 2.7
I've been reading alot of comments lately here on VGChartz things like "Wii is in trouble" and "360 is a sales beast" ect. ect., but what i have not been seeing in my reading is anything really about the PS3 except maybe that GT5 is in big trouble. This has got me sad As for PS3 vs 360 there really hasnt been much of a threat with the 360, PS3 gots Japan on lock by alot this will continue in 2011, and the same can be said in EMEAA, as you can see by the latest numbers only 2 weeks after 360s mammoth Reach launch the gap between the two in EMEAA is only 10k this weekly gap will be gone and in PS3s favor very shortly with new PS3 skus releasing and GT5. Just look at Dead Rising 2s sales for EMEAA only 10k apart didnt 360 have exclusive DLC and has even more exclusive DLC coming? doesnt 360 have a over 2M lead in UK? doesnt 360s version run and look better? Also look at the growth in yearly sales above, PS3 already hit way passed 12M in a year and will do the same again this year while 360s sales have been relatively flat year after year only barely breaking 11M once, also look at COD pre orders in NA same case again 360s are relatively flat while PS3 have grown significantly. This trend will continue in 2011 As for some other reasons why i believe in this just look at PS3s SW line up its pretty much game after game month after month of PS3 exclusives. LBP2, MotorStorm3D, Killzone3D, Socom4, Twisted Metal, Yakuza 4 Infamous 2, Resistance 3, Ratchet & Clank All 4 One, ICO Shadow of Colossus Collection, The Last Guardian, Dynasty Warriors 7, Virtual Tennis 4, Star Drone and other possibilities The Agent, Star Hawk, Valkyria Chronicles 3, Sly Cooper 4, Uncharted 3 and those FF games. I also believe that there will be a PS3 sku revision that adds extra features along with a price cut. Now you can say the same for 360Wii but there already priced at $199 and had deals of $149 and even $99 already also i dont think Wii will get a revision and the 360 already got one. I also believe sony is like myself they like to hide and stay behind cover when battling they didnt rush to go to $299 or rush to get certain games out, there waiting for the right time when there opponent is at there weakest, i believe the 360 and Wii have used up pretty much everything in there arsenal for this console war, i believe they have run out of breath now, in 2011 PS3 will come out of cover blind firing and then charging out with its SW lineup and pricing strategy
Now post what you believe in |
You might be right but if your doing analysis you can't ignore steps that the other consoles can take.
Nintendo can release games that move consoles. The Wii has had only 1 price drop. You have to take into account the measures nintendo can take. And nintendo is great at holidays.
Please consider this when making an assumption in Console Sales, In the next 12 months United States will set a record on Kids turning 9 and 10 year olds, due to the fast increase in population United States is seeing, there are more 8-9-10 year old kids in that Country than ever before, many of these familes will not throw out $300 dollars for a HD/Blue ray/Gaming Console, but a Wii which is a lot more kid friendly for $199 plus 2 "so called " games, wii seems like a pretty good deal, I mean look at how the Wii just blew up on the charts after Black Friday, add the new Zelda and some cool gold wii version I think the Wii will beat the other 2 not by much but it will, besides if the 3ds does good, Nintendo could afford a price cut, never understimate the power kids have over parents.
*Sound Of Rain said:
Nintendo isn't stupid...they could drop the Wii Bundle price to $100 right now, still make a profit, and sell a ton! This also supports my reason of Wii>PS2 in lifetime sales. They never seem to go with current graphics technology but instead goes for something new and unique to sell systems(as well as amazing games)...next Gen should see a Nintendo system with PS3/360 like graphics and something cool and different that games haven't seen before with a starting price of $300 or less. 3DS seems to be an exception to Nintendo systems...with a rumor of a $300 starting price...for a H.H thats a lot which is why I predicted a few months ago that 3DS would fail to be as successful as the DS. I personally don't expect 3DS to even break the 100 Million mark. |
Honestly, that stuff doesn't really matter. If you do it with something like Wii, it's beyond genius, but the PS2 was pretty darn successful too and it sold at a loss zt first. Also, we don't know how much money they're making off the 3DS and the $250 price point is way more likely at the start.
What we should be worried about the 3DS for, though, is the games. Where would the Wii be without Wii Sports? Wii Fit? And the DS without Nintendogs? Brain Age? So far, we've seen nothing magical regarding the 3DS. If Nintendo just relies on good graphics and its user base, 50m for the 3DS is optimistic, :/.
Iwata did say that they're coming up with new stuff when this issue was brought up at the investors' conference, though, :D.
“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx
I think it will be very close between all 3 consoles next year. I'm expecting each of them to finish 2011 with sales in the 9-14 million range. I think if the PS3 gets $100 price cut (which seems likely), it will strong numbers. Kinect may be enough to all ow Microsoft to do very well next year, or it may die off quickly after the holidays, but I think it will do well. If Nintendo has a new console in early 2010 then I think they may just let the Wii slow down in 2011, with a few strong performing games like Zelda and a $50 price cut. If the next Nintendo console isn't coming until 2013 I'd expect Nintendo to be a little more agressive next year, with maybe a redesign and a potential big seller or two. So overall it should be an interesting year, seeing whic console comes out on top between the three, but I do think overall sales of the three consoles will be down quite a bit next year.
Belief? So this is a religious thread?? Playstationism is religion now???
| nightsurge said: Personally, I think 2009 was the PS3's peak year. 2010 may squeak ahead by a little to be the peak year. As of right now it is only up on 2009 by 1.1 million. The last few weeks it has been down YoY since it was this time last year that the Slim and Price Cut took affect. It is pretty likely that the PS3 will be down YoY for the remainder of 2010 save for a couple weeks around GT5 release. That 1.1 million growth over 2009 will shrink pretty quickly until it either disappears entirely or hangs on by less than half a million. So 2009 will have been the PS3's peak year, or 2010 will be by ~500k more. |
Even though you posted this way back in October, I think you make the most sense. GT5 hasn't boosted PS3 sales like people thought and Kinect has proven to be a bigger success than people thought. If anything, these FACTS only support your analysis even more. Kinect demand will not disappear after the holiday and if MS and 3rd parties pace out a reasonable stream of Kinect announcements that continue to feed the casual and entice the core, that demand will likely continue throughout the Spring.
Unless Sony has some completely unforeseen ace up their sleeve that none of us can reasonably envision, they really don't have any other aces to play this gen. Any price move can and will be countered by Ninty and MS, as their quarterly and annual profits make ever so clear compared to Sony. 3DTV's, I'd imagine, are not going to be a differentiator either. The only chance they have is Move, but its mainstream appeal isn't as large as Kinect's has been. There would really need to be an amazingly compelling software phenomenon released for it to change that, and that is just not likely to happen by next year if ever.
So yeah, I guess it would take a completely unrealistic leap of pure faith to believe that the PS3 will outsell everything else next year. The power of faith ...
Wouldn't be surprised at all.....
It might be another 2009 all over again with price cut and every thing by end of the year and a stellar line up through out that pretty much trashed what the other has to offer for that year.
@ BHR - 3
I'm bookmarking this thread too, I think it's gonna be cool reading it again next year. =D
We hear this every year, its not going to happen, especially if any of these three things happen:
Wii Price cut, Dragon Quest X, Vitality sensor success
As we've seen, Wii is the dominant holiday console, PS3 cannot compete
| axt113 said: We hear this every year, its not going to happen, especially if any of these three things happen:
Wii Price cut, Dragon Quest X, Vitality sensor success |
Do you really think that Sony will not cut the price of the PS3 in 2011? I think it's coming sooner than later. Something like 199/249$ console alone, 249/299$ bundles. And I don't think that DQX alone is enough to compensate all the awesome exclusives/multiplats coming on PS3 next year.
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, not the part about GT5 but part that no one is really seeing that mass potential for Sonys PS3 next year 
. I believe that next year Sonys PS3 will have multiple sales explosions causing it to sell the most of any console. Why do i believe this you ask? well if you look at current Wii vs PS3 sales Wii is only above it by 2M for this year, this time last year it was over 4M, i believe that around this time or earlier in Aug-Sep the PS3 Wii gap will be closer to only 1M for 2011, i believe that Sony will slash the price of the PS3 this time next year and the PS3 will erase that 1M gap to take the lead before the year ends. 
