Belief? So this is a religious thread?? Playstationism is religion now???
| nightsurge said: Personally, I think 2009 was the PS3's peak year. 2010 may squeak ahead by a little to be the peak year. As of right now it is only up on 2009 by 1.1 million. The last few weeks it has been down YoY since it was this time last year that the Slim and Price Cut took affect. It is pretty likely that the PS3 will be down YoY for the remainder of 2010 save for a couple weeks around GT5 release. That 1.1 million growth over 2009 will shrink pretty quickly until it either disappears entirely or hangs on by less than half a million. So 2009 will have been the PS3's peak year, or 2010 will be by ~500k more. |
Even though you posted this way back in October, I think you make the most sense. GT5 hasn't boosted PS3 sales like people thought and Kinect has proven to be a bigger success than people thought. If anything, these FACTS only support your analysis even more. Kinect demand will not disappear after the holiday and if MS and 3rd parties pace out a reasonable stream of Kinect announcements that continue to feed the casual and entice the core, that demand will likely continue throughout the Spring.
Unless Sony has some completely unforeseen ace up their sleeve that none of us can reasonably envision, they really don't have any other aces to play this gen. Any price move can and will be countered by Ninty and MS, as their quarterly and annual profits make ever so clear compared to Sony. 3DTV's, I'd imagine, are not going to be a differentiator either. The only chance they have is Move, but its mainstream appeal isn't as large as Kinect's has been. There would really need to be an amazingly compelling software phenomenon released for it to change that, and that is just not likely to happen by next year if ever.
So yeah, I guess it would take a completely unrealistic leap of pure faith to believe that the PS3 will outsell everything else next year. The power of faith ...
