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Forums - Sales - Halo Reach vs Halo 3 1st Week By The Numbers

GodOfWar_3ever on 25 September 2010
Jadedx said:
GodOfWar_3ever said:

GT is more of a legs franchise....it'll keep selling for a looooooooooooooooong time.

"Halo 3 remains the biggest selling exclusive in emeaa." should be "Halo 3 remains the biggest selling exclusive in emeaa on HD consoles" obviously....


Same can be said for Halo, it's still selling and it came out 3 years ago.

True....but the first week to life time ratio of GT4 is far better than Halo 3... So its safe to say that GT has stronger legs....either way, it doesn't matter much what sells more...at the end of the day, they're both big BIG franchises.



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Hyruken on 25 September 2010
CGI-Quality said:
Hyruken said:

The problem with the GT5 and Halo comparison is that the rules by which they can be compared constantly changes. The Sony fans normally make some claim and then back away from it. Like we all remember the GT5 will sell more then Reach first week comments a year ago. That then changed to lifetime and so on.

Now GT5 will be the top selling PS3 exclusive. I don't think anyone can deny that. It will go on to have very good sales. But will it have Halo Reach sales? To put some sort of perspective on it Reach just did 4m in 5 days on sale. It will probably do at least another 1m next week making it 5m in 12 days. The top selling PS3 exclusive is MGS4 with 4.9m. Meaning Reach just outsold the biggest exclusive on PS3 in just under 2 weeks.

For Reach to do that it has to sell big in emeaa and in americas. If you look at the Reach numbers in EMEAA your see it sold just as many as GT4 did in it's first week. Meaning the whole "EMEAA doesn't like Halo" thing is not true. Halo 3 remains the biggest selling exclusive in emeaa.

The main defence of GT5 doing Halo numbers is the whole EMEAA will make up the difference thing. But will it really? If you look at GT4 numbers your see that EMEAA did 1m, 800k in americas and 700k in Japan. So let's assume GT5 does better and sells 1m in US, 800k in Japan that is 1.8m. Do you really think EMEAA is going to do double what GT4 did with half the console GT4 had to sell to? and do say 2.2m? Because that is what it will have to do and that is unrealistic.

I don't recall anyone claiming GT5 would sell more than Reach in the first week. It's always been a lifetime argument.

Comparing GT with MGS is also off, as GT clearly will outsell it on the basis of brand alone.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=112124 (people saying it will outsell Halo 3/Reach sales, first post say's 5m first week). If you also follow the link in there to the orgional thread your see lot's of people basically say the same thing. SO while you say "nobody said that", what you really mean is "most normal people didn't say it".

MGS4 is the top selling PS3 exclusive. It is all well and good talking about stuff that happened almost 10 years ago but you can only really compare against the here and now. And because of that you can only compare MGS4 to GT5 as that is the top game currently THIS GEN that is exclusive to the PS3. As i said GT5 will outsell that.

Also i should of mentioned that Halo 3 outsold GT4, so doesn't that show it has legs too?



Michael-5 on 25 September 2010
kowenicki said:
Michael-5 said:
BHR-3 said:

  Ive been making a few threads here on VGCharts about GT5 vs Reach LTD, HW boost from SW launch, and GT5s 1st weeks sales.  In those threads i noticed a clear pattern emerged a lot of VGCharts posters seemed to favor Halo Reach, I've been also getting PMs and wall posts saying "BHR-3 hang up your jacket GT5s done stop comparing it to Reach it will never out do it", "Reach is the FPS game of the century and the most wanted FPS of 2010 if you werent such a Sony fan you would see this", and "BHR-3 havent you've seen how big the 360s userbase has gotten since Halo 3 you'd be foolish not to think that Reach wont double its 1st week".

Now i dont want to turn this thread into a reach vs gt5 thing the thread is more about me "continuing my work" and is just a statistical point for the future events that are almost upon us, and since reach numbers came out i thought some would want to see how the Halo series has grown and how reach stacked up against Halo 3 release years ago.  Yeah yeah i know no JP number but there not out yet for Reach and i dont think they would play much role. 

I already have a thread like this, but I compare to more then just Halo 3:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=115642&page=1&str=654113874#

I'm just waiting on those Japanese numbers before I update my initial post, and to be honest, I'm dissapointed in Reach sales. 70% larger base, and only 5% larger sales. Those Pre-orders fooled me, but who knows It may keep up strong sales for a long period of time.

Japanese Numbers gave a 60k SW boost to Halo 3, I'm expecting around 65k for Reach.

As for GT5, I expect a massive jump in Japan because of that sexy blue PS3 Slim. I can easily see GT5 having a strong first week if that sexy blue PS3 Slim were released everywhere. Sony thinks only the Japanese like colourful PS3's, but they are wrong. GT5 should still make a big hardware increase since it's sold in November, a time of peak HW sales. A 50% jump then is equvilent to a 100% jump now.


This is ridculous.  Do you know how stupid it is to say this?

Can you do a similar comparison for Modern warfare please.  And while you are at it, do one for GT3 and GT4 on the PS2.   Do one for SMG and SMG2 also please.

Reach is massive and its exclusive to the 360 - people need to get over it!

 

Do one for Halo 1 and Halo 2 on the X-Box, do one for GTA on the PS2. I still think Halo: Reach will have stronger legs then Halo 3, it may not have had that much bigger of an opening, but there are soo many more users out there, I can't see this game not following the Halo trend, of every halo outselling its predesessor by 2-3 million. Maybe only 2 million for Reach, but give it time.



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Michael-5 on 25 September 2010
Reasonable said:
kowenicki said:
Reasonable said:

All this shows is what anyone sensible knew, which was that most Halo gamers already had a 360 and that it was unlikey we'd see a huge jump in sales from Halo 3.  No surprise there.  Anyone thinking Reach was going to see sales growth over Halo 3 in ratio to the 360 user base growth was crazy, frankly.

Actually, I think this is positive for the 360.  It shows it no longer relies on Halo the way the Xbox did and the 360 did early in it's life.  Now the 360 has sold to lots of people who are not interested in Halo, who just see it as a good console for playing the kind of games they like to on, be that Modern Warfare or Assassin's Creed or Mass Effect or whatever.

This is progress for MS.  If the 360, like the Xbox before it, remained locked in as mainly a console to get Halo on it simply wouldn't have seen the sales growth it has.

Reach shows a decent growth of 5% or so and to expect much more would be - well - unreasonable I think.

Nobody thought this. 

BHR tries to intimate this to say reach is a failure... because quite frankly he is trying to downplay the massive sales of the best loved and biggest selling exclusive franchise outiside of the Wii this gen.

Yup.  That's my point.  No one apart from maybe a few die hard fans expected anything more than the sales we've seen - which are of course huge.  I guess it should also be noted that, if a console's install base is growing healthily then the attach rate has to go down vs big sellers released early in a consoles life - again there is nothing unexpected there.

I disagree, I still think Halo: Reach total sales will be 2-3 million more then Halo 3. Having similar opening week sales means that there is the same number of die hard halo fans. However a lot of people buy Halo casually, months, even years after the games release. It's going to have stronger long term sales.

I also don't think you should generalize your opinions. I know many people who expected a modest growth for Halo based on install base.



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Michael-5 on 25 September 2010
GodOfWar_3ever said:
kowenicki said:
GodOfWar_3ever said:
kowenicki said:


like i said... not many...  and mostly elite and mostly after ODST, some considerable time after halo 3 was released.  thanks though.

A 60GB Version with Halo 3, a 360 elite with halo 3, elite with fable 2 & halo 3 (which spiked up sales for both titles for 2 or 3 months), a halo 3, odst and reach MP beta bundle, a halo wars and 3 bundle aren't many ?

It was bundled quite a bit and probably moved atleast 200k sales that way....and thats low balling it.

200k? even if thats true that represents 1.8% of Halo 3 total sales....

1.8%... thats huge isn't it.

The desperation of Sony fans to cheapen Halo success year after year is quite sad.

As I've said....thats probably low balling it...

Halo 3 generally didn't rely on bundles to sell. 200k, even 500k is not much of total 360 sales, and out of all the people who bought a Halo 3 bundle, I bet a significant portion wanted Halo 3 anyway.



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Michael-5 on 25 September 2010
Hyruken said:
CGI-Quality said:
Hyruken said:

The problem with the GT5 and Halo comparison is that the rules by which they can be compared constantly changes. The Sony fans normally make some claim and then back away from it. Like we all remember the GT5 will sell more then Reach first week comments a year ago. That then changed to lifetime and so on.

Now GT5 will be the top selling PS3 exclusive. I don't think anyone can deny that. It will go on to have very good sales. But will it have Halo Reach sales? To put some sort of perspective on it Reach just did 4m in 5 days on sale. It will probably do at least another 1m next week making it 5m in 12 days. The top selling PS3 exclusive is MGS4 with 4.9m. Meaning Reach just outsold the biggest exclusive on PS3 in just under 2 weeks.

For Reach to do that it has to sell big in emeaa and in americas. If you look at the Reach numbers in EMEAA your see it sold just as many as GT4 did in it's first week. Meaning the whole "EMEAA doesn't like Halo" thing is not true. Halo 3 remains the biggest selling exclusive in emeaa.

The main defence of GT5 doing Halo numbers is the whole EMEAA will make up the difference thing. But will it really? If you look at GT4 numbers your see that EMEAA did 1m, 800k in americas and 700k in Japan. So let's assume GT5 does better and sells 1m in US, 800k in Japan that is 1.8m. Do you really think EMEAA is going to do double what GT4 did with half the console GT4 had to sell to? and do say 2.2m? Because that is what it will have to do and that is unrealistic.

I don't recall anyone claiming GT5 would sell more than Reach in the first week. It's always been a lifetime argument.

Comparing GT with MGS is also off, as GT clearly will outsell it on the basis of brand alone.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=112124 (people saying it will outsell Halo 3/Reach sales, first post say's 5m first week). If you also follow the link in there to the orgional thread your see lot's of people basically say the same thing. SO while you say "nobody said that", what you really mean is "most normal people didn't say it".

MGS4 is the top selling PS3 exclusive. It is all well and good talking about stuff that happened almost 10 years ago but you can only really compare against the here and now. And because of that you can only compare MGS4 to GT5 as that is the top game currently THIS GEN that is exclusive to the PS3. As i said GT5 will outsell that.

Also i should of mentioned that Halo 3 outsold GT4, so doesn't that show it has legs too?

Why are we talking about GT now?

My opinion, your right about Halo: Reach it's going to outsell GT5 lifetime.

If you compare GT4 Prologue sales in Japan with GT5 prologue sales, GT4P sold 0.79 million units in the single year before GT4 came out, GT5P sold 0.57 million units in almost 2 years, and GT5 still isn't out.

Halo has legs, bigs ones in Noth America, smaller ones in EMEAA. Week one sales have always been strong for the Halo franchise, but GT has been known to sell strongly over time (look at GT3).

Regardless this thread is not about GT, and Halo Reach, despite having a 1st week sales lower then many expected, will probably still outsell Halo 3 by 2-3 million.

P.S. People did originally say GT5 will outsell Halo: Reach 1st week, it then became a total arguement..



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Reasonable on 25 September 2010
Michael-5 said:
Reasonable said:
kowenicki said:
Reasonable said:

All this shows is what anyone sensible knew, which was that most Halo gamers already had a 360 and that it was unlikey we'd see a huge jump in sales from Halo 3.  No surprise there.  Anyone thinking Reach was going to see sales growth over Halo 3 in ratio to the 360 user base growth was crazy, frankly.

Actually, I think this is positive for the 360.  It shows it no longer relies on Halo the way the Xbox did and the 360 did early in it's life.  Now the 360 has sold to lots of people who are not interested in Halo, who just see it as a good console for playing the kind of games they like to on, be that Modern Warfare or Assassin's Creed or Mass Effect or whatever.

This is progress for MS.  If the 360, like the Xbox before it, remained locked in as mainly a console to get Halo on it simply wouldn't have seen the sales growth it has.

Reach shows a decent growth of 5% or so and to expect much more would be - well - unreasonable I think.

Nobody thought this. 

BHR tries to intimate this to say reach is a failure... because quite frankly he is trying to downplay the massive sales of the best loved and biggest selling exclusive franchise outiside of the Wii this gen.

Yup.  That's my point.  No one apart from maybe a few die hard fans expected anything more than the sales we've seen - which are of course huge.  I guess it should also be noted that, if a console's install base is growing healthily then the attach rate has to go down vs big sellers released early in a consoles life - again there is nothing unexpected there.

I disagree, I still think Halo: Reach total sales will be 2-3 million more then Halo 3. Having similar opening week sales means that there is the same number of die hard halo fans. However a lot of people buy Halo casually, months, even years after the games release. It's going to have stronger long term sales.

I also don't think you should generalize your opinions. I know many people who expected a modest growth for Halo based on install base.

If it opens roughly the same (which it has) and shows legs (which Halo 3 did and still does) then when exactly is it going to bring in that many more sales?  We'll know soon but I see no reason to believe Reach will show better legs than Halo 3.

Also, given recent annoucements from MS about increasing the speed of release of Halo titles Reach might find itself facing a new Halo much earlier than Halo 3, which would likely harm it's legs vs Halo 3.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

Hyruken on 25 September 2010

Sorry i am slightly confused now. If it had nothing to do with Gt5 vs Halo reach why did the OP say

" Ive been making a few threads here on VGCharts about GT5 vs Reach LTD, HW boost from SW launch, and GT5s 1st weeks sales.  In those threads i noticed a clear pattern emerged a lot of VGCharts posters seemed to favor Halo Reach, I've been also getting PMs and wall posts saying "BHR-3 hang up your jacket GT5s done stop comparing it to Reach it will never out do it", "Reach is the FPS game of the century and the most wanted FPS of 2010 if you werent such a Sony fan you would see this", and "BHR-3 havent you've seen how big the 360s userbase has gotten since Halo 3 you'd be foolish not to think that Reach wont double its 1st week"."

That is a pretty big paragraph which to me is talking about GT5 and Halo. Hence why i wrote what i wrote.

Maybe i understood it wrong, but if it wasen't about that why mention it?



Recon1O1 on 25 September 2010

You are so right.  Reach is a complete failure.  My 12.5 LT WW guesstimate looks really shaky right about now.  Later.



AnthonyW86 on 25 September 2010
Michael-5 said:
Hyruken said:
CGI-Quality said:
Hyruken said:

The problem with the GT5 and Halo comparison is that the rules by which they can be compared constantly changes. The Sony fans normally make some claim and then back away from it. Like we all remember the GT5 will sell more then Reach first week comments a year ago. That then changed to lifetime and so on.

Now GT5 will be the top selling PS3 exclusive. I don't think anyone can deny that. It will go on to have very good sales. But will it have Halo Reach sales? To put some sort of perspective on it Reach just did 4m in 5 days on sale. It will probably do at least another 1m next week making it 5m in 12 days. The top selling PS3 exclusive is MGS4 with 4.9m. Meaning Reach just outsold the biggest exclusive on PS3 in just under 2 weeks.

For Reach to do that it has to sell big in emeaa and in americas. If you look at the Reach numbers in EMEAA your see it sold just as many as GT4 did in it's first week. Meaning the whole "EMEAA doesn't like Halo" thing is not true. Halo 3 remains the biggest selling exclusive in emeaa.

The main defence of GT5 doing Halo numbers is the whole EMEAA will make up the difference thing. But will it really? If you look at GT4 numbers your see that EMEAA did 1m, 800k in americas and 700k in Japan. So let's assume GT5 does better and sells 1m in US, 800k in Japan that is 1.8m. Do you really think EMEAA is going to do double what GT4 did with half the console GT4 had to sell to? and do say 2.2m? Because that is what it will have to do and that is unrealistic.

I don't recall anyone claiming GT5 would sell more than Reach in the first week. It's always been a lifetime argument.

Comparing GT with MGS is also off, as GT clearly will outsell it on the basis of brand alone.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=112124 (people saying it will outsell Halo 3/Reach sales, first post say's 5m first week). If you also follow the link in there to the orgional thread your see lot's of people basically say the same thing. SO while you say "nobody said that", what you really mean is "most normal people didn't say it".

MGS4 is the top selling PS3 exclusive. It is all well and good talking about stuff that happened almost 10 years ago but you can only really compare against the here and now. And because of that you can only compare MGS4 to GT5 as that is the top game currently THIS GEN that is exclusive to the PS3. As i said GT5 will outsell that.

Also i should of mentioned that Halo 3 outsold GT4, so doesn't that show it has legs too?

Why are we talking about GT now?

My opinion, your right about Halo: Reach it's going to outsell GT5 lifetime.

If you compare GT4 Prologue sales in Japan with GT5 prologue sales, GT4P sold 0.79 million units in the single year before GT4 came out, GT5P sold 0.57 million units in almost 2 years, and GT5 still isn't out.

Halo has legs, bigs ones in Noth America, smaller ones in EMEAA. Week one sales have always been strong for the Halo franchise, but GT has been known to sell strongly over time (look at GT3).

Regardless this thread is not about GT, and Halo Reach, despite having a 1st week sales lower then many expected, will probably still outsell Halo 3 by 2-3 million.

P.S. People did originally say GT5 will outsell Halo: Reach 1st week, it then became a total arguement..

GT5: Prologue has sold 3.87 million so far... and again i think will should atleast wait for the next two weeks to even get a glimpse off wether Halo: Reach will have the same legs as Halo 3 or not.