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Forums - Sales - Microsoft: 3 millions for Kinect this holiday

Michael-5 on 21 September 2010
Conegamer said:
thx1139 said:
Conegamer said:
Michael-5 said:

Generally there are not too many games that push high numbers of consoles. I mean 2008 was the 360's strongest year and it really only had Gears of War 2, Fable 2, Left 4 Dead, Fallout 3, Rock Band 2, and Dead Space.

So 6 console pushers among many other great titles.

2010 has Halo: Reach, Rock Band 3, Fable 3, Fallout: New Vegas, Medal of Honor, Dead Rising 2, and about 20 Kinect exclusive titles (15 come out on launch). Actually comparing the games, 2x Fallout, 2x Fable, 2x Rock Band, Halo to Gears, LEft 2 Dead to Dead Rising 2, and Dead Space to Medal of Honour, the 2008 and 2010 lineup seem really similar. So adding Kinect to that is more then likely to ensure the 360's peak year.

I don't think Kinect is competing with a lack-luster lineup. FIFA and Guitar Hero may be periodic, but the rest of the games I named are solid.

I just think that the other two consoles have better line-ups. They're great and all, but can it compete with, say a new Kirby, Donkey Kong AND Goldeneye game (among others) as well as the Wii? We'll see, but I believe that Microsoft are almost discounting the Wii (and, to an extent, Move), and expect it to ride out the wave of the Slim (which is old news now), AND Halo: Reach (which I doubt will have much of an impact overall)

I'm just not expecting great things for the price...

Well ya know what the 360 lineup can compete with the likes of Kirby, Donkey Kong and Goldeneye.

Best sales for Kirby on a console was 1.77M so really what does it represent. Another Nintendo franchise that Nintendo faithful (already have Wii's)  hype and not many other people buy.  Donkey Kong which 16 years ago sold 8 million copies. Which means people that dont have Wii's have been waiting for this game and no other game on the Wii. Finally Goldeneye,honestly do you really believe that Goldeneye will be a better FPS than Reach  COD:Black Ops.  Nope it may give Wii fans a FP, but that is about all.

I'm not saying that, I'm just saying that SOME people will get these games/ a Wii at Christmas as opposed to an Xbox and Kinect. It seems to me as though MS are thinking that everyone who will buy an Xbox will get Kinect with it/not Move/not Wii/not Xbox games. I just feel as though it won't be as big as they think.

Wii will outsell 360 there is no doubt about that. Fable, Halo, and Kinect will all sell well, but combined all 3 probably only just match Wii Party sales. Then the Wii has DKCR, Kirby, and Goldeneye. To be fair Kirby and Goldeneye probabably won't sell that many units.

The only comment I want to address is the 360's "lackluster" fall lineup. I disagree, and I have proven it above. Maybe games like FallOut won't push that many consoles, but Black: Ops will, and it's not like Kirby will draw in a hue audience either.

Now I do think Wii will come ontop again for 2010 fall, it's almost certain, but it's not because the Wii is that much better then the 360. The 360 has one of it's strongest lineups this fall, and personally I see it above PS3 (With GT5 and LBP, thats it...).

I think with all the hype the 360 Slim has generation, the large marketing budget for the Kinect, and the quality of some of the games, I think Kinect will sell 3 million. As a standalone unit, I'll agree it is expensive, but as a $299 bundle with an Arcade 360 Slim, thats not a bad deal. you get the HD multiconsole lineup along with the 360 exclusive line-up, and Kinect gaming which may seem "newer" then the Wii. This is only $90 more then the Wii, and it still satisfies both the 15 year old teenager, and his grandma.

I mean Kinect plus a 360, or a PS3... You can always buy a 16 gig thumb drive for DLC at $20 or so. I have the old 20 gig SKU 360 (only 14 gigs are usable), and I recently started using an 8 gig thumb drive. I still have 5 gigs to spare, and I consider myself a pretty hardcore gamer. 4 gigs is definatly more then enough as long as you get no DLC.

I sill think Wii will outsell the 360 significantly, and imagine how much of a landslide Wii will have sales-wise with just a price cut?



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Michael-5 on 21 September 2010
Conegamer said:
mundus6 said:
Conegamer said:
mundus6 said:

If 3DS launches this holiday everybody that Kinect are target against (casuals) will forget about it. M$ is pushing Kinect to hard imo, we 360 owners want our share of exclusives that are not for Kinect please. That said, it will be bigger than Move.


I think Move will be bigger- It's launched sooner, is cheaper and has a bigger variety of games.


Wii games, Kinect is something new, Move is a Wii mote that look like a dildo. Consumers aren't gonna spend that much money on motion control (Wii is $200, Kinect $300, Move $400). Also third parties other than Sega (and fitness games like EA) doesn't sell well on the Wii, its Nintendo that makes the Wii games.

Sony aren't a bad company, hell this gen you could say they have the best exclusives, but a HUGE part of the Playstation brand has always been third party, i just dont see that happening with the Move except for adding Move as a 2nd control scheme (like Heavy Rain and RE5) and alternative controllers never sell well. Kinect gets crazy 3rd party support.

I guess we'll see in a few weeks time :)

Didn't the Move only have 4 launch games? Tumble, Sports Champions, Get the Party Started and I forget the last?

I looked at how many games both peripherals have for 2010, it's 20-21 games in favor of the PS3 Move, and to be fair thats not much more considering the 2 months extra the peripheral has on the market.

I don't share your optimism for the PS3 Move. I think most gamers interested in the Move already own a PS3. I think the Wii Fit sold more balance boards then the Move will sell peripherals.

As for 3rd party games on the Wii, they do sell well. Just Dance, EA Sports Active, and Carnival Games are 3 titles to sell over 3 million. However in comparision to the games Nintendo has, thats not much at all.

As for 3DS, if that launches this fall, Kinect sales will be killed. The Nintendo DS will be the best selling console by the end of the year, a successor console with 3D support, and an Ocarina of Time Remake....KILLER! The 3DS on it's own could probably outsell the PS3 and 360 combined total sales, never-mind the peripherals.



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Conegamer on 25 September 2010
Doobie_wop said:

It better sell 3 million, that marketing budget is ridiculous.


But it won't. It'll sell 2mil max. Sad but true. Keep an eye on it, 250k max opening.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

DaHuuuuuudge on 25 September 2010

Interesting. I would've guessed Kinect would have a modest first week, but sell well for the rest of it's life.



xaq404 on 25 September 2010

Yeah, right. Kinect is honestly pretty embarrassing. Microsoft's understanding of the "casual" audience is pathetic. 

Microsoft: Well, that WIi thing is doing pretty damn well! Maybe we should make our own motion controller! And sell it to the casuals! But what do these "casuals" like? 

Microsoft's understanding of the Wii's audience: HERP DERP MOTION CONTROLS DEERRRP COLORFUL GRAPHICS HERP HERPPP SHALLOW GAMEPLAY DEERRRRPPPPP.

Microsoft: Wow! What retards! This will be easy to sell! We just need to make colorful minigame fests! Who cares how good they actually are? Who cares if the hardware is $150? These retard's will buy it if we advertise it!

Take this approach opposed to Nintendo's strategy of basically taking their arcade games experience and using that to make motion control games that play like arcade games, and using a simple exterior.



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Michael-5 on 26 September 2010
Conegamer said:
Doobie_wop said:

It better sell 3 million, that marketing budget is ridiculous.


But it won't. It'll sell 2mil max. Sad but true. Keep an eye on it, 250k max opening.

That's funny because worlwide pre-orders are about 200k and it's still 9 weeks before launch?



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johnglen on 26 September 2010
xaq404 said:

Yeah, right. Kinect is honestly pretty embarrassing. Microsoft's understanding of the "casual" audience is pathetic. 

Microsoft: Well, that WIi thing is doing pretty damn well! Maybe we should make our own motion controller! And sell it to the casuals! But what do these "casuals" like? 

Microsoft's understanding of the Wii's audience: HERP DERP MOTION CONTROLS DEERRRP COLORFUL GRAPHICS HERP HERPPP SHALLOW GAMEPLAY DEERRRRPPPPP.

Microsoft: Wow! What retards! This will be easy to sell! We just need to make colorful minigame fests! Who cares how good they actually are? Who cares if the hardware is $150? These retard's will buy it if we advertise it!

Take this approach opposed to Nintendo's strategy of basically taking their arcade games experience and using that to make motion control games that play like arcade games, and using a simple exterior.


I can smell the fear....



Jadedx on 26 September 2010
Sweep said:
BenVTrigger said:

After the announcements of awesome core stuff like Steel Battalion and Panzer Dragoon this doesn't seem far fetched at all.  

I know I was gonna wait till probably next year to get one but now I'm for sure getting one at launch.


1 - It's not Panzer Dragoon, it's made by the creator of PD

2 - It's an Xbox Live title...

It's retail, Siliconera made a mistake.



Conegamer on 26 September 2010
Michael-5 said:
Conegamer said:
Doobie_wop said:

It better sell 3 million, that marketing budget is ridiculous.


But it won't. It'll sell 2mil max. Sad but true. Keep an eye on it, 250k max opening.

That's funny because worlwide pre-orders are about 200k and it's still 9 weeks before launch?


My mistake, I meant in Americas. I predict 350K opening WW, reaching around 2-2.2mil by year's end. Reasonable, but not unfair.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 26 September 2010
Michael-5 said:
Conegamer said:
mundus6 said:
Conegamer said:
mundus6 said:

If 3DS launches this holiday everybody that Kinect are target against (casuals) will forget about it. M$ is pushing Kinect to hard imo, we 360 owners want our share of exclusives that are not for Kinect please. That said, it will be bigger than Move.


I think Move will be bigger- It's launched sooner, is cheaper and has a bigger variety of games.


Wii games, Kinect is something new, Move is a Wii mote that look like a dildo. Consumers aren't gonna spend that much money on motion control (Wii is $200, Kinect $300, Move $400). Also third parties other than Sega (and fitness games like EA) doesn't sell well on the Wii, its Nintendo that makes the Wii games.

Sony aren't a bad company, hell this gen you could say they have the best exclusives, but a HUGE part of the Playstation brand has always been third party, i just dont see that happening with the Move except for adding Move as a 2nd control scheme (like Heavy Rain and RE5) and alternative controllers never sell well. Kinect gets crazy 3rd party support.

I guess we'll see in a few weeks time :)

Didn't the Move only have 4 launch games? Tumble, Sports Champions, Get the Party Started and I forget the last?

I looked at how many games both peripherals have for 2010, it's 20-21 games in favor of the PS3 Move, and to be fair thats not much more considering the 2 months extra the peripheral has on the market.

I don't share your optimism for the PS3 Move. I think most gamers interested in the Move already own a PS3. I think the Wii Fit sold more balance boards then the Move will sell peripherals.

As for 3rd party games on the Wii, they do sell well. Just Dance, EA Sports Active, and Carnival Games are 3 titles to sell over 3 million. However in comparision to the games Nintendo has, thats not much at all.

As for 3DS, if that launches this fall, Kinect sales will be killed. The Nintendo DS will be the best selling console by the end of the year, a successor console with 3D support, and an Ocarina of Time Remake....KILLER! The 3DS on it's own could probably outsell the PS3 and 360 combined total sales, never-mind the peripherals.


Damn straight.

I have very little optimism for move, but that's still more than I have for Kinect. Kinect's gimmick (hands-free gaming) can do nothing but hold back the "proper" games, such as Oblivion, Bioshock, *shudders* COD etc. The Move can at least take the Wii ports of sucesful games (Wii sports, Resident Evil, Conduit, NMH etc.) and with little work, Move has good games.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.