binary solo said:
Let's try to be a bit analytical:
2009 PS3 slim/$100 pricecut year WE 6 Sept - WE 2Jan '10
| Console |
PS3 |
|
Total
|
7,790,029
|
2008 360 $100 price cut year WE 7 Sept - WE 3 Jan '09
| Console |
X360 |
|
Total
|
6,552,328
|
360 is currently sitting on 42.712M as at WE 28 Aug. So to make it to 50M by year end it needs to sell 7.288M units over the same timeframe I've shown above(I'm assuming we are talking VGC sold numbers).
This means 360 needs to sell 736K units more than it did over the same timeframe in 2008. Is that likely? I'm pretty sure most people are thinking that relative to Sept-Dec 2008 360 is going to fall behind in WoW sales, or at least be more or less dead even. I think it would be a bold move to predict 360 Sept-Dec 2010 will outsell 360 Sept-Dec 2008 by nearly 750K units.
Therefore I predict 360 won't make it to 50 million on VGC by end of 2010. And unlike the almost trollish comment from Jadedx it's got nothing to do with any PS3 related material in my sig (of which there is none at the moment).
I think, at best, it will match 2008 sales from here on, so that will make it 49.264M units sold to retail if it performs outstandingly well. That's pretty much inside VGC's LTD margin for error, so you could claim that if it gets over 49M by year end then statistically it's possible that the ture WW LTD sales is at or slightly above 50M.
|
Like anything it really does depend. Its not really about Halo: Reach anymore, that is almost quantified.
It still depends on what the natural sales rate of the Xbox 360 S is relative to the Xbox 360 of 2008 because at the moment the trend lines are fairly close but its hard to say whether the sales will be maintained or will instead dip. Not having the sales graphs available makes this a pain in the ass to compare.
It also depends on what kind of end of year deals are on offer. Whether they will have deep discounts for Black Friday in the U.S. and whether they have the 40E rebates which they offered in the EU this time or not. Beyond that it also depends on how people respond to said deals, since we're still in that recession mindset consumers might respond more favourably.
It depends as well on how well ESPN is recieved by the public. If the response is anything similar to Netflix they could achieve a reasonable boost on that alone. Given the huge overlap between M16-35 audiences for sports and games, this is a potentially important development.
Finally it depends on how much Kinect sells. If due to the above it falls to 6.0M naturally for instance and Kinect by itself ends up selling another 1.5M consoles over the final 8 weeks of the year then they can still end up selling more than 50M consoles.
Its all up in the air, it depends on a lot of factors but if they fall the right way theres no reason to say that it wouldn't.
