360 Closing 43M - Will it Beat 50M by Years End ?

[Michael-5]

binary solo said:

Let's try to be a bit analytical:

2009 PS3 slim/$100 pricecut year WE 6 Sept - WE 2Jan '10

Console	PS3
Total	7,790,029

2008 360 $100 price cut year WE 7 Sept - WE 3 Jan '09

Console	X360
Total	6,552,328

360 is currently sitting on 42.712M as at WE 28 Aug. So to make it to 50M by year end it needs to sell 7.288M units over the same timeframe I've shown above(I'm assuming we are talking VGC sold numbers).

This means 360 needs to sell 736K units more than it did over the same timeframe in 2008. Is that likely? I'm pretty sure most people are thinking that relative to Sept-Dec 2008 360 is going to fall behind in WoW sales, or at least be more or less dead even. I think it would be a bold move to predict 360 Sept-Dec 2010 will outsell 360 Sept-Dec 2008 by nearly 750K units.

Therefore I predict 360 won't make it to 50 million on VGC by end of 2010. And unlike the almost trollish comment from Jadedx it's got nothing to do with any PS3 related material in my sig (of which there is none at the moment).

I think, at best, it will match 2008 sales from here on, so that will make it 49.264M units sold to retail if it performs outstandingly well. That's pretty much inside VGC's LTD margin for error, so you could claim that if it gets over 49M by year end then statistically it's possible that the ture WW LTD sales is at or slightly above 50M.

Well if Microsoft sales numbers are accurate VGChartz undertracks 360's by close to 2 million, so then yea.

However sticking to VGChartz data, I love this analysis you made. For the same reasons you give I now think the 360 has a good chance to get above 50 million by the end of the year.

Think about it, the 360 has to sell 750k better then it did in 2008 right? Well look how much a Slim PS3 boosted PS3 sales last fall, don't you think the 360 will boost sales in similar fashion? Also what games did 360 have in 2008 fall? gears of war 2 was the big one, well Halo: Reach is a lot bigger. Also now CoD has early map packs on the 360, and Black Ops > WaW. Also Kinect, if that pushes just 500k more consoles, then 360 has a shot.

I agree with you 49 million is a reasonable estimate, but I'm thinking 49.5 million plus. Microsoft has a lot more to offer in 2010 then it did in 2008, and well.... It will be close.