There's no way the 360 can get that much market share. It only sales in America, where it can't even outsell the Wii. I mean how the fuck is it supposed to get 30% of the market.

These analysts just need to actually do their job. If Wii gets that much market share, then 360 and PS3 will either be really close, or PS3 will be ahead.

Not much predicting is necessary to conclude that, since the 360 was launched first. It had 100% market share for a year and then it started losing it, naturally.

I paid $299 for a PS2. I did not buy FF or MGS. I did, admittedly, buy GT3 A-Spec because it was one of the handful of decent titles in the first year, not because I was a fan of the series or a Sony fanboy or whatever.

I own a PS3 now, and I honestly have no intention of buying FF, MGS or GT at this point whenever they're released.

I'm sorry to disappoint, but these games do not sell systems. They never have, not in America, anyhow. The American market is driven by the casuals and the college crowd, the frat boys -- not the hardcore. This is why GTA was such a runaway success, because it was brash and crude and appealed to 20 and 30 somethings who like to drink beer and break stuff. Guitar Hero, Madden, NCAA, etc etc ...

Now, there are fans of FF, MGS, GT and whatever else you want to name in every country, no question, but those are not the people who bought 120M PS2s.

Casual is mainstream. Hardcore is niche.

I don't know why gamers are so bull-headed about just accepting this and moving on.

@dryden

You dont know anything about the american market, shooters drive it casual or not.

Pos	Console	Name	Publisher	Year	Total
1		Wii Sports	Nintendo	5,476,694	6,705,602
2		Halo 3	Microsoft	4,175,640	4,175,640
3		Pokemon Diamond / Pearl	Nintendo	3,983,507	3,983,507
4		Wii Play	Nintendo	3,037,050	3,037,050
5		Guitar Hero II	Activision	1,726,790	3,264,162
6		Nintendogs	Nintendo	1,566,392	5,792,259
7		Mario Party 8	Nintendo	1,458,651	1,458,651
8		Forza Motorsport 2	Microsoft	1,367,664	1,367,664
9		Guitar Hero II	Activision	1,360,015	1,360,015
10		Madden NFL 08	EA	1,298,394	1,298,394
11		God of War II	Sony	1,157,387	1,157,387
12		Super Mario Galaxy	Nintendo	1,106,571	1,106,571
13		Madden NFL 08	EA	1,100,164	1,100,164
14		The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	Nintendo	1,039,926	2,076,401
15		New Super Mario Bros	Nintendo	1,022,863	3,306,588
16		Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock	Activision	986,740	986,740
17		Gears Of War	Microsoft	928,384	3,027,809
18		Marvel: Ultimate Alliance	Activision	902,398	1,261,480
19		Crackdown	Microsoft	875,440	875,440
20		Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare	Activision	872,086	872,086
21		Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock	Activision	862,467	862,467
22		Super Paper Mario	Nintendo	835,171	835,171
23		Lost Planet: Extreme Condition	Capcom	801,831	801,831
24		Motorstorm	Sony	795,082	795,082
25		Bioshock	Take 2	788,601	788,601
26		Wario Ware: Smooth Moves	Nintendo	755,560	755,560
27		Mario Kart DS	Nintendo	748,058	2,775,993
28		Assassins Creed	Ubisoft	747,864	747,864
29		Tom Clancy Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2	Ubisoft	721,169	721,169
30		Brain Training	Nintendo	714,354	1,985,515
31		The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass	Nintendo	705,360	705,360
32		More Brain Training	Nintendo	681,687	681,687
33		MLB 07: The Show	Sony	679,460	679,460
34		Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas	Ubisoft	676,711	1,210,892
35		Diddy Kong Racing DS	Nintendo	674,140	674,140
36		Guitar Hero Encore Rocks the 80s	Activision	644,635	644,635
37		Major League Baseball 2K7	Take 2	639,342	639,342
38		Resistance: Fall of Man	Sony	581,270	926,320
39		NCAA Football 08	EA	554,983	554,983
40		Spiderman: The Movie 3	Activision	554,176	554,176
41		Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock	Activision	549,276	549,276
42		Metroid Prime 3: Corruption	Nintendo	543,943	543,943
43		Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition	Capcom	518,681	518,681
44		Madden NFL 08	EA	479,509	479,509
45		Halo 2	Microsoft	470,376	6,601,532
46		God of War	Sony	465,310	2,304,100
47		Spectrobes	Buena Vista	447,359	447,359
48		Fight Night Round 3	EA	438,526	1,119,994
49		Cooking Mama	Majesco	435,711	633,675
50		Animal Crossing: Wild World	Nintendo	430,731	1,573,523

It could be argued that 9 of those games are shooters which means that 18% of the top 50 games of the year are shooters ... OMG!

As you can see by the chart, games like Nintendogs, Pokemon, Guitar Hero, and Madden dominate.

In other words, dryden is correct

^^^
I like the way u think Dryden
just accept it
and move on LOL

While we're on the subject of Citigroup, here's an old prediction of theirs from January 2006. These are predictions for sales in the US market only.

2008
360 - 8.0 million
PS3 - 7.1 million
REV - Data Unavailable in Article

Total Through 2007
360 - 11.8 million
PS3 - 3.9 million
REV - 3.9 million

Total Through 2008
360 - 19.8 million
PS3 - 11.0 million
REV - Data Unavailable in Article

Source: http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=16280 (scroll down to post #7)

Obviously a bit off, especially with the Wii (Revolution), but not nearly as bad as some others. They actually called the 360 over the PS3 in America, which hardly anyone was doing at the beginning of this generation. Also remember, Pachter was saying as recently as May of this year that the Wii had no chance of outselling the PS3 in lifetime sales (at which time the Wii was 4m ahead in sales and pulling further ahead every week).