How can you decide to just create a $299 SKU that does not exist in your argument? Especially with the $ amount Sony is already losing on a $399 one? And when historically has the PS3 Beat the Xbox 1:1 much less even 2:1. I do think Sony is increasing and 360 is slightly dropping, but your estimates are fabricated at best. Wishful thinking does not equal 2:1 sales.    

And your argument is weak on another point... you did not buy another system last gen because the one you had already had all the good games out. That is no longer the case. Sony only has a few good games, and a few ever-delaying hopefully good sequals coming out. They do have a line-up, but you haven't played those games and can't know what will be the system sellers.

Microsoft made a brilliant move recently by packaging Forenza with the 360. They are obviously trying to deflect GT5 by giving people a good racing game so they don't NEED to spend $399 on a system and then $60 on a good racing game. I don't know if it will work as GT is a monster, but it is brilliant.  

 At this point it's all speculation, Sony could continue to grow and Microsoft could continue to slighly fade. But I think they will be very close at the end of this gen.  But I do expect Wii to win.

To demonstrate my point:

Name	Console	Publisher	Japan	America	Others	Total
	Everybodys Golf 3	Sony Computer Entertainment	1.39	0.94	0.29	2.62
	Everybodys Golf	Sony	2.13	0.27	0.19	2.59
	Everybodys Golf 2	Sony	1.49	0.19	0.13	1.81
	Everybodys Golf 4	Sony	1.34	0.28	0.12	1.74
	Everybodys Golf Portable	Sony	0.58	0.36	0.41	1.35
Totals (5 matches)	6.9	2.0	1.1	10.1

Everybody's Golf 5 0.39 Million in Japan

Name	Console	Publisher	Japan	America	Others	Total
	Ratchet and Clank	Sony	0.58	1.36	0.99	2.93
	Ratchet and Clank 2	Sony	0.26	1.35	0.81	2.42
	Ratchet and Clank 3	Sony	0.31	1.14	0.72	2.17
Totals (3 matches)	1.2	3.9	2.5	7.5

Ratchet and Clank Future 0.27 Million Japan + North America

Name	Console	Publisher	Japan	America	Others	Total
	Virtua Fighter 4	Sega	0.56	0.72	0.43	1.71
Totals (1 matches)	0.6	0.7	0.4	1.7

Virtua Fighter 5 0.45 Million Worldwide

If (on average) games are selling at 1/4 to 1/3 of the level they did on the PS2 what makes you think that (Magically) Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo or Metal Gear will come even close to their PS2 numbers?

 The PS3 will stagnate next year. Sony is already losing so much money it is doubtful there will be another price cut and MGS4 and KillZone2 won't sell nearly as well as you think they will. MGS3 sold about 4 million and that was on a system with an install base of 100 million or so. Killzone 2 will outright flop.

Correct. And that's not putting the user base of the PS2 vs the PS3 into the equation. Sony has a much larger mountain than Everest in it's path.

@happysquirrel, as for the Gamecube at $99, I haven't and wouldn't... but I see your point.

OT: I don't see this analysts point of view, though it's quite obvious the Wii will be number one, but I do not think that the 360 will remain as strong... but eh, I don't care so much... I finally have more games at my disposal on the PS3 than I have time to play, and that's good enough for me!

Wait until a few more big budget games lose a trainload of money. Bye bye exclusives (look at Monster Hunter).

But in Sony's court, the PS3 is currently outselling the GBA & GC COMBINED! Just not the PS2 ;)

well it depends if the big games will give it a big boost

it will most definitely get a boost.

That's a little unfair with the way you're calculating numbers for PS3 games... most of you guys stick up for the Wii games since they have long legs but now you are basically saying that PS3 games have no legs?? Most of the PS2 games had amazing legs due to the fact that Sony uses it's greatest hits series to push those game sales higher. I think it's way too early to compare a game like Ratchet against it's PS2 version when obviously the conditions aren't exactly the same. Find a game that came out during the first year on both systems, track it's sales week to week and see how it compares. Till then don't compare lifetime sales to a game that just came out.

"""
If (on average) games are selling at 1/4 to 1/3 of the level they did on the PS2 what makes you think that (Magically) Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo or Metal Gear will come even close to their PS2 numbers?
"""

==> no they will not ...
but I didn't know you were talking about the PS3 sales.

In fact, I thought you were talking about the fact that sequel sold less than the original game both on PS2 (see my post to understand me, I never mention PS3):

"==> do u mean, GT4 sold less than GT3 for example ?
or SC3 less than SC2 ?
or Tekken 5 less than Tekken4 ?

dont u think it is because, for multiplayer game, the first release of 1 serie in a hardware sell always better than the sequel (like GT2 sold less than GT on PSX)"

Overall, GT5 will not sell 15M
MGS4 will not sell 5M
I agree

My "hope" :
GT should reach 4M and MGS4 should reach 2.5M
But this is not because the game are bad, or unpopular, it is because of the userbase that is smaller that is all.

But these games will move system and a lot.
Without them, the Xbox360 would have sold 2x more than what it is doing right now ...