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Forums - Sony Discussion - Citigroup Sees PS3 in Last Place Through 2012

"""
I think it's way too early to compare a game like Ratchet against it's PS2 version when obviously the conditions aren't exactly the same. Find a game that came out during the first year on both systems, track it's sales week to week and see how it compares. Till then don't compare lifetime sales to a game that just came out.
"""

even more Everybody's gold and Ratchet are casual games that dont attract the hardcore gamers that bought/buy the PS3.
and they are only "1 year" games ...



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radioioRobert said:
it will most definitely get a boost.

Of course it will get a boost.  But will it be a big boost?

Of the games we know are coming out next year, I don't see anything other than MGS4 giving the PS3 a significant boost.  If the GT game comes out, that should bump it quite a bit as well.  MGS4 has quite a bit of anticipation around it, and half of the other games talked about in these forums are unknown to the masses.  In order to get a very significant boost, you need to release a game that everyone knows about, or that people see and *need*.  Like Wii Sports.

I also see the PS3 struggling in 2008, but not as badly as it did in 2007.  Its 2007 struggles definitely surprised me.  Also, without understanding all of the factors that go into the PS3's pricing, I find it unlikely that Sony can afford a real price drop from their $400 model in 2008.  If anything, they'll start adding value to it -- bundling games, etc.  At the moment, they want to get $500 for the PS3 from whoever they can (hence the game bundles) and $400 for the PS3 from those unwilling to pay $500.



I have always said that Xbox 360 + PS3 > Wii, so they in no way could have over 50% market share, then All the Nintendo fans got crazy, now Citi group conirms my predictions.



eugene said:
I have always said that Xbox 360 + PS3 > Wii, so they in no way could have over 50% market share, then All the Nintendo fans got crazy, now Citi group conirms my predictions.

What if Nintendo increases production beyond what the PS3 and the 360 can sell per month?

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

the ps3 games have the same problem that the gamecube games had and n64 games had. delay problems and smaller userbase. releasing games now is a good thjing but for every game delayed = one more wii/360 console/game is sold. delays kills consoles for example the n64 had awesome sales for 3-4 months but after that the delays people got tired of it and moved onto a different console. then the same happend with games as well. ff7 was for the 64 then was scrapped and moved to the ps1. so in other words no games are exclusive until its been out for years on one console. for example RE4 was supposed to be exclusive to the gamecube only but was ported to the ps2 after 6 months. so dont get to comfy with exclusives unless they are 1rst party



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RolStoppable said:
eugene said:
I have always said that Xbox 360 + PS3 > Wii, so they in no way could have over 50% market share, then All the Nintendo fans got crazy, now Citi group conirms my predictions.

So Pachter confirmed the WiiHD for 2009?

 You've got pretty big expectations for the Wii as well...  I hope you're right though.  I want a ton of games to play on the Wii.  I wish Nintendo had the Wii Ware section up and running right now.  I'm home sick still and need something to do.



Prepare for termination! It is the only logical thing to do, for I am only loyal to Megatron.

madskillz said:

"Most expect Nintendo to emerge as the winning next-generation console maker.

In the five years to 2012, Soichiro Fukuda, analyst at Nikko Citigroup, expects the Wii to capture a 46 per cent global market share, compared with 33 per cent for Microsoft's Xbox360 and 22 per cent for the PS3."


So it's predicting the Wii and PS3 to steal the 360's thunder? That sounds about right to me (though I'd prefer to see the PS3's percentage higher).

By the way...  46+33+22 = 101%.



"""So it's predicting the Wii and PS3 to steal the 360's thunder? That sounds about right to me (though I'd prefer to see the PS3's percentage higher)."""

==> seriously, pecentage mean nothing.
If u translate them in absolute numbers u get this (example) :

Wii 100M

Xbox360 75M

PS3 50M

then u understand that 22% percent market share for the PS3 mean the PS3 is third, and the gap PS3/Xbox360 will increase in the future (from 8M now to 25 in 2012) !!!!

Even if u reduce all the numbers :

Wi              60
Xbox360    45
PS3            30

gap PS3/Xbox360 : still 15M > 8M

EDIT : I changed the Wii numbers that were wrong (150M ==> 100M and 100M ==> 60M, thx RolStoppable)



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radioioRobert said:
damkira said:
hunter_alien said:
Common ... that would mean that the PS3 would nearly stagnate during next year , even with the pricecut and the huge games that its getting ...

The PS3 will stagnate next year. Sony is already losing so much money it is doubtful there will be another price cut and MGS4 and KillZone2 won't sell nearly as well as you think they will. MGS3 sold about 4 million and that was on a system with an install base of 100 million or so. Killzone 2 will outright flop.

 


Wait until a few more big budget games lose a trainload of money. Bye bye exclusives (look at Monster Hunter).

But in Sony's court, the PS3 is currently outselling the GBA & GC COMBINED! Just not the PS2 ;)


 By my count.. only Resistance and Motorstorm have turned a profit for PS3. Assassins Creed and COD4 might but both of those have been outsold by their Xbox360 versions. Things are only going to get worse for PS3.



My numbers are now correct. tThe only problem was the Wii numbers. Hopefully, that doesn't change what I was saying about the PS3/Xbox360.
Thx again for the correction.



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