I think we are either talking about 2009 or 2010 here. Year over year the Ps3 could be down by like 1 million units in September alone but I don't know if it'll be up year over year or not so I'm not going to speculate

But if we don't look at peak years but at peak time instead I guess that was after the release of the Slim model in late 2009 to early 2010. I know Sony can still cut the price next year but I doubt they'll drop it to 199$. The PS2 and PSP profit will be down next year because the platforms will sell less hardware and software. And Sony really needs to focus on profit so they can't drop the price by 100$ if they are just making 50$ of profit per unit. Additionally if they release a "Slim slim" version of the PS3 that is likely to have less of an impact compared to the first one (just like with the Gameboy Micro, the DSi and the PSP 3000).

A price drop next year is going to boost sales but it's not like the console will stay at the current sales level forever. There are no "fix sales levels" for each price point Naturally Sony will have to drop the price next year to maintain the current sales level not to increase it. Additionally with the 3DS on the horizon and the next gen not that far away anymore (no matter when the next generation starts 2011 will always be closer to it than 2009 ) I doubt they will be able to repeat the excitement over the Slim in late 2009. That doesn't mean it has to drop off drop off dramatically in 2011, it could just be down by half a million units or so but it would still be down

So I'm gonna say 2009 or 2010 but I'm not going to to go for one. I expect it to be within  10% of 2009 sales, though

You guys don't have to agree with each other but you are also using past trends from previous gens (console sells majority of its units at $199, Gran Turismo game is huge) as your reasoning why it hasn't peaked. I really don't know why you have to bash the guy with the reason above.

I've broken this down time and time again. The odds of it being down this year are almost nonexistent. Worst case scenario for September is it will be down about 950k and that's if the Move launch doesn't produce any increase whatsoever. And I've said it numerous times now, most likely it will produce a significant bump in EMEAA since it's equivalent to a €70/£50 cut and now Sony has said they'll be heavily advertising it. And that's not even accounting for clearance sales on the old 120 and 250 gig models. So realistically it will probably be down more like 750k-800k in September. Than in October with the 160 gig model launch in PAL and the Move launch in Japan and with the natural pick-up in sales you usually see starting around October that month probably won't be down more than 100k-150k. Than of course there's GT5 in November which will all but guarantee that that month will be at the very least flat just based on the blue GT5 bundle in Japan alone. And most likely the month will be up overall by a pretty fair margin, I'd be willing to bet over 400k. And as far as December is concerned, both ioi and Source think that PS3 will basically be about flat with last December.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3549763

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3549788

And they made those predictions before Sony revealed the pricing and bundling structure of Move in Europe.

What holes? PS3's sales curve doesn't match PSP exactly because PSP had that failed Go redesign, and the PS3 had a VERY successful Slim redesign.. Other then that, yearly growth rates, yearly sales up to redesigns, PSP and PS3 sales are almost spot on.

And yes trends are followed this generation. Please compare PS2 and Wii sales data and allign from launch, you will see that the PS2 also started to loose sales after only 3 years on the market. PS3 sales with an alligned launch follow PSP sales accuratly as well (except holiday boosts are shifted).

I'm not saying your wrong either, but you can't tell me that I'm wrong without justification. Your just telling me trends are not followed this generation, and they are. Seriously, compare sales, I dunno if you can still make those graphs on VGCharts, but I'm sure if you look back into one of those sales editorials, they must have alligned all current gen console weekly at some point.

Also, yes I beleive PS3 total sales will be roughly in the same ballpark as PSP sales. Okay PS3 will probably have a longer tail (due to stronger popularity in Americas, instead of Japan), but I really doubt PS3 lifetime sales will be above 80 million. PS3 is past it's peak sales, it's 4 years old, saw a huge boost in sales last year, and is expected to have a significantly weaker fall this year, and no past console (playstation or otherwise) has had a peak in sales in 4 years or longer after the launch of the console. The DS had peak sales in 4 years, but thats also the best selling system of all time, and has the widest timeframe of sales. GB may have done something similar too since it was on the market for 12 years and had a redesign (GBC), like 9 years after launch?

There are no holes with my logic, there is no reason for PS3 to boost sales above 2009 level in 2011 or later. Price cuts don't push as much as redesigns, all the big franchises will see at least 1 proper PS3 installment, and talk of successor consoles will play a bigger role.

Meh, your a little harsh, but everyone is strongly opinionated.

As for this $199 price point where consoles explode in sales, in the past consoles have been released for around $300-$500 at launch, however within a year or two, most console dropped their price to $200. I beleive consoles peak in sales within 2-3 years of launch because that is when they are at peak popularity. Before then People still play past consoles, after then people are waiting on new ones.

Also you have to realize, with inflation, $200 for a PS1 or PS2 is moe equivalent to $250 or $300 currently. $200 is not some magic price that stays fixed over the decades. So selling the PS3 and 360 at $300 is almost equivalent to selling a PS2 at $200.

Finally, the Slim redesign gave a huge boost to sales, much more then any past price drops the 360 or PS3 made. Yes the $200 price drop will be more epic, but Wii will drop down to $150 or $130 then, and 360 will match PS3, so any sales jump will be distributed among all console. With a redesign, the sales boost is centralized on that one console.

As for Gran Turismo, it will be big, but it will probably help 2011 sales more then 2010 since GT games aren't generally headstrong (having huge sales at the start, but a lot less in the later weeks). With a Price cut and GT sales helping, I just don't think it will match 2009. 2011 may beat 2010, but the PS3 has peaked in my opinion.

I agreed above that you have your opinion, and that I have mine, and we both have our own reasons. I respect your opinion, I just don't agree.

I simply want to know about these "holes" in my logic so I can think about my assessment in the future. You can't reply in a sentance or two and just tell me that "I'm wrong", but not explain it.

I'm not trying to move you, I just want to know on what grounds you disagree with the trends arguement, and I want to know where these "holes" in my logic are. I'm a thorough researcher, so I would like to know, to learn.

Maybe you're not telling me that I am wrong, but your discrediting my points without reasoning.

I respect your opinion, I just want to know your reasoning for discrediting my points.

Is not the same to cut the price after 2-3 years than after 5-6 years. After Sony cuts the price is very likely that Nintendo launches its new console some months or 1 year later. The PS3 could have more competition than a console that achieves the $200 target price very soon like has been before (psone and two).

In terms of hardware, it was probably last year with this year going to come up as a close second and next year (2011) being a strong third).

In terms of software, I see 2011 being easily its best year.

Although I think a lot of it will have to do with the PS3 Move's acceptance. If it is another Sega CD, then 2011 and 2012 could suffer a lot. The PS4 might be too late out the door to gain any real traction (I expect Nintendo to have a new console in 14 months; November 2011, and Microsoft to have one in 2012). IF it turns out to be the next Dual Shock Controller, then I expect 2011, 2012, and 2013 to be all reasonably good years.