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I've broken this down time and time again. The odds of it being down this year are almost nonexistent. Worst case scenario for September is it will be down about 950k and that's if the Move launch doesn't produce any increase whatsoever. And I've said it numerous times now, most likely it will produce a significant bump in EMEAA since it's equivalent to a €70/£50 cut and now Sony has said they'll be heavily advertising it. And that's not even accounting for clearance sales on the old 120 and 250 gig models. So realistically it will probably be down more like 750k-800k in September. Than in October with the 160 gig model launch in PAL and the Move launch in Japan and with the natural pick-up in sales you usually see starting around October that month probably won't be down more than 100k-150k. Than of course there's GT5 in November which will all but guarantee that that month will be at the very least flat just based on the blue GT5 bundle in Japan alone. And most likely the month will be up overall by a pretty fair margin, I'd be willing to bet over 400k. And as far as December is concerned, both ioi and Source think that PS3 will basically be about flat with last December.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3549763

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3549788

And they made those predictions before Sony revealed the pricing and bundling structure of Move in Europe.



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5. Super Street Fighter 4