That 70% of console sales come at $200 thing is total BS.

If you adjust for inflation, PS3 at $300 in 2010 costs roughly what PS2 did in May 2002 when it went to $200. It is also an issue of timing. Of course PS2 sold the majority of its units at $200 or less - it has been $200 or less since month 18. PS3 is in month 46 in the USA and its still $300. Money & Time determine interest at various prices.

PS3 has spent far longer on the market at $300 or more, and Sony isn't about to cut to $200 next year either. I'd wager $200 is a 2012 time frame for PS3, while $250 is in the cards for 2011. The "key" price point for PS3 is likely $300 as those who wanted an HD system at $200 probably bought an X360.

Beyond that, PS3 has been tracking very similarly to PSP in an aligned launch for three full years now if Sony meets its 15m projection for the March 2010 year, so if that trend holds up there would be a big dip next year:

               FY3            FY4          FY5                FY6

PSP      9.6              13.8         14.1               9.9

PS3       10.1           13           15 (prj)            ??

All three systems are probably getting price cuts in 2011 (Nintendo isn't going to have ONE price cut in five years - on a console that's unheard of), so its probably going to be the current year that is the peak if Move doesn't take off. So in 2011, Wii will be $149 and PS3 will be $249, and X360 will probably cost from $149 - $249. I actually think there is a pretty good base to be made that PS3 HW sales will be down a bit in USA / Japan for Oct- Dec:

In Japan, PS3 Slim Final Fantasy XIII 10,000 Yen Price Cut is a hell of alot better than...Gran Turismo 5 and some small games

In the USA, Call of Duty and Uncharted aren't coming, and PS3 looks like it will be down in Aug-Nov without the price cut / Slim. So it is basically Gran Turismo 5, Little Big Planet 2 and a number of big multiplatform third party games.

PS3 in the USA in 2009 was like this...but I think figures for 2010 will be more like this:

2009                   2010

210k - Aug  -   180k (45k/week)

492k - Sept -   275k (55k/week)

321k - Oct  -   260k (65k/week)

710k - Nov -   552k (138k /week)

1350k - Dec - 1250k (250k / week)

Its roughly offset by Europe, which will see a big boost from Gran Turismo 5, but overall PS3 shipments could fall to 6m from 6.5m in the Dec quarter - so I think October 2009 to September 2010 is the peak.

Microsoft, and history.. and I wouldn't be suprised

that's utter rubbish, if that's the case you expect the Wii to hit 167 million?

it would be that high a percentage but if a console is released at a much higher price at launch then it will get most of its sales after $199

Wii was already released at $249 and as a help from its competitors which launched at far higher prices so Wii already got most of its sales before as it was already cheap compared to the other two

 both 360 and PS3 will earn most of their sales at$199 or lower price

Do you know why companys ect and history has shown that? It's because the consoles time on the market at $199 outweighs it's time on the market at the higher price.

i agree on the loe-j being wrong part abt the history and all

but 360 has been $199 for some time so the time period at lower price is higher than the time period above $199

PS3 will most likely be $199 next year will stay for 5 more years

i know that many people don't agree with the plan but SONY will be stuck to it like they always do

thehistory doesn't always repeat,it just gives a some statistics to predict the future trends

It all depends when the PS3 hits $199 tbh, it's alredy the longest console out that hasn't hit $199, could well be in it's 6th year when that happens, at the point, it's getting nowhere near 70% of it's sales that late in it's life.

I agree it'll last 10 years, but then that's never been thanks to Sony so to speak, the consumers chose to keep it alive that long.

This gen it's more than likely all will reach 10 years old, this gen is gonna be looong