Not like Mr. StickBall has any real credibility with any of his anyways. Just criticizing from the peanut gallery.

But anyways didn't Media Create have Wii Fit sales at 261k. Guess those numbers weren't for both days and the new one is updated from it for final data.

Agreed. But, it is a joke. So don't take it so personally... it doesn't really matter what anyone says to tell you the truth. Just get the numbers weekly and be happy.

I also find it terribly hard to believe that retailers would under-order what has been promoted as maybe the single most important title/accessory for the Wii. The magic stock is not forthcoming and neither are the ultrahigh sales figures.

I've said it before, and I don't mind saying it again; people in here tend to overestimate Nintendo's hold on the market yet. Sony had a very firm grip on the console market and a very big userbase when Eye Toy hit the shelves (which is kinda the same basic idea) but the massive sales were absent at that time too.

#1. I never predicted Halo 3 selling 15m units. I've gone on record saying it'd sell, at most, 13.5m units LTD. It's been out for 2 months and is at half of that and climbing, and Halo 2 is still charting in the top 50. How is that crazy?

#2. How do we know casuals lined up for Wii Fit? People line up for everything. Infact, the hallmark of "casual" is that they casually buy software. Like I said, which was 100% true, that Wii Fit would be the next Wii Play/Sports. Guess what? It had a 1st week very similar to Wii Sports/Play.....I fail to see how I was wrong about that. Go look at NeoGAF Wii Fit threads. Do you think "casuals" have access to post on NeoGAF? No. But plenty of hardcore Japanese owners lined up, and took pics of Wii Fit because they were buying it themselves.

#3. For those saying my Halo 3 = 13.5m are just as insane as JL's 3.5m 1st week in Japan for Wii Fit are absoutely blinded.

Think about this: lets say Halo 3 does Halo 2 numbers (8.5m). My prediction will of reached maybe 60%-65% of it's prediction, at worst.

On the other hand, John's WF JP> H3 WW is, at best (assuing similar sellthrough for next week, 250k), going to reach 12.5% of his total idea. There's a big difference between 12.5% and 60%, or did you not know that?


Certain people really need to take off thier JohnLucas blinders. Bashing people that make predictions stating that a given game, or system might do 20-30% above a given trend line is alot different than someone predicting something will do 500% or 1000% above a given trend line. There's a reason I'm #2 in the Prediction League and John Lucas has never, ever charted.

 1.  If your reasons for Halo 3 hitting 13.5 million is because of Halo 2 sales, then you are very very ignorant to trends.  13.5 million although possible, is highly, highly unlikely.  Evne 10 millionf H3 right now appears to be as stretch. 

2. Well I don't know if it means anything but I've been the one yelling around that brandname is what's backing Wii Fit, something you seem to agree upon.  To all those saying it would beast out huge first day sales, or fail at launch I laughed upon cause they had apsolutely no backign to anything they said.  Glad we at least agree on this though. 

3. As I said the 13.5 million, although possible, is very unlikely.  I'd personally like to see your explanation for it, cause really I've gone through numerous times of figuring out H3 LTD WW, and highest I can ever get is around 11-12 million.  I'd really like a thoroug explanation though.  And saying because Halo 2 is still selling now is not something I call proof, but lack thereof.

And I was #3 on the prediction list thing until I stopped predictiong.  Big whoop.  That hardly means anything, especially when I caught numerous people simply copying other predictors, although I'm not implying anything, but simply saying the power of suggestion makes the prediction league almost impossible to see if its really you.  Personally I think your prediction should remain hidden and same with averages until sales are released.  That would seperate the men from the boys.

the last few posts are the worst of i've seen from you ever, mrstickball. on surface there is nothing wrong with what you say.

but try stepping back and realize what JL is accomplishing here, because you're caught in the details right now. numbers and analysis based on numbers are your strength but you'll need to learn to look at the big picture. you don't seem to have a clue about WHY johnlucas is making these statements and predictions.

On the flipside, it would seem that JL has no clue as to not only why his predictions will fail, but why they are impossible.

3.5m copies of Wii Fit on opening week just isn't realistic from a manufacturing standpoint, much less retail shelf space, shipping, and immediate consumer demand. 

The phrase that sticks out is 'trend setter'.

Trend Setting, in my non-expert opinion, are based off of others' opinions. IF and only IF Wii Fit is popular, will it be more popular, and a trend setter.

I would say that, in order to determine the trend setting, Wii Fit needs to be out for about 3 months before any "Trends" are determined.

DS is a good trend measurement. It got more popular as time went on. Word of mouth, games played, wanted, etc. If a lot of 'normal people', the ones who don't hound forums, websites, or any other media info, don't know of a product, it takes a short while to realize it's even there.

 you, my good sir, also seems to have no clue what JL is doing.  

JL knows better than anybody the implications and assumptions that goes into his preposterous prediction.  why is he still doing it?  it's not such a big leap of logic, really.

Attention?