I basically agree with all this.  I'd also add though, that likely supply constraints will keep it from going much higher.

it is going to be a tremendous year for the xbox it seems, I am think close to 600k just killing everything behind it.

607,471 - The Reach bundle looks better than the standard 'Black' , has an extra controller and Halo written on it.  A lot of existing owners will have held off upgrading once it was shown off.  Some people in retail around VGC are saying the bundle is moving really well.  If that week doesn't hit 230k in Americas I'll know I'm domed.  I'm going to regret not getting a shiny silver box but mine is working just great.  I'll put on my silver faceplate and hope for the worst.

PS - Wouldn't Kinect be a negative?  It will be cheaper to buy a new box with Kinect in Nov. than buy them separately.  Still the buzz will help a bit and October's SW lineup could help September's HW.

14% saying more then 800K...that'd be impressive if that comes true

I voted 500-599k because Halo: Reach is looking to be bigger then Halo 3, and with the recent Slim bundle we should see a bonus of 50-100k. It's possible to go above 600k, thats why I wish there were a 550-649k option, but I think 600k is a bit optimistic. Also microsoft is looking to be the system for Fall 2010, as most threads seem to be about how well the 360 will do.

PS3 is awesome, but for Fall 2010 it's Wii60 baby!

550k

my prediction will be  because reach sold over 3 million on it first day ..... i think including 5 week month my prediction is going to be 715,000

The boost won't be as big as previous Halo titles given how many people already own an X360 now but the baseline is higher..Probably around Sept 2007 figures honestly, right at 520k or so as the lift should deteriorate rather quickly.

I'm showing VGC tracking 455k 360s with a week left to report for HW in Am.  My 607k prediction is shot barring colossal undertrackage.  It's looking like only 470-490k now.   The next weekly Am  would need 139k to even hit the 500k.  That's with the -15% conversion to a U.S. guesstimate.   I knew I was toast a while ago but who's still in the running?   So much for anecdotal evidence.  I've learned a valuable life lesson.  

Reach: This is an old thread we won't find out about until the 16th or so.  It's not looking as strong as a lot of us thought.  Still it moved some extra HW.  We'll be able to guess NPD with the nos. on Thursday.  Hope Seece doesn't mind the comments from the peanut gallery.

How many has VGC the 360 at ?